yep

They're third in yards/drive and t-1st in points/drive, doesn't scream unsustainable to me.

He's slightly below league-average in int rate right now, below his career average. It seems more likely that this will be a positive source of regression than a negative one.

Well, yeah, this is the NFL. They're slightly worse than non-SD top teams in this regard, but everyone's pretty far from optimal.

Overall, the four points don't seem very convincing as to why we shouldn't expect the Colts to be the 4th-best team (or whatever) going forward.

I think they're a "coach who doesn't cowardly turtle up when he has a chance to close out the game, who doesn't inexplicably undermine his QB's confidence, and who isn't blissfully unaware when there's a huge bullying problem right under his nose" away.

Man, sunday is gonna be such a mess. Especially if willis is out

i know eyetesters absolutely love tannehill for some reason (pff, tweedy, smiglet, i'm sure there's more) but his actual production has been poor for all 2.3 seasons he's been in the nfl. i know he's only 26 and giving up on a 3rd year 8th overall pick is a cardinal sin but it's such a qb driven league that it might be time to think about moving on. sure he could turn out to be a great qb down the road but i think the odds are much better he doesn't.

miami's defense seems really good though.
yeah if we're dinging teams for running too much then we're probably back to no teams being in the top ten.

julius thomas's o/u is probably like 200 yards and 4 tds if wilhoite and borland are starting

Whoa. Seattle hasn't seen SHATS like this since the kid from the Jeremy video.

Broncos
Seahawks
Chargers
Eagles
Colts
49ers
Cowboys
Packers
Patriots
Cardinals
-----------
Bengals
Ravens
Lions
Saints
Panthers
Bears

I like these two rankings. I'm curious about Seattle's defense. Their (relatively) poor performance so far this year has a lot to do with playing 4 top 5ish offenses but it's becoming pretty clear to me that it isn't quite the force it was in '12 and '13.

That's exactly what it is for me, combined with a lack up depth at virtually every spot. Romo's not even in the equation and right now he looks like regular Romo just throwing fewer passes. He had some close calls the last few games too but that's another conversation.

They're still making a lot of the same mistakes as always and playing with players we're way too familiar with to overrate. We know Scandrick and Carr aren't going to hold up every game making clutch plays, we know that a turnover differential of -2 usually results in a loss, we know that getting .33 sacks per game from the DE position doesn't generally get it done. Murray's fumbling a lot and you had two special teams disasters just yesterday, still wins. Kicker can't be any hotter and just made his first kick over 53 in his career. They've been very healthy. Their first serious and meaningful injury since the season started--Claiborne wasn't much of a loss and Lee went down earlier--just happened with Doug Free at RT yesterday. And he's been on fire and a big reason for their success. He's one of many players without any kind of credible backup.

While they've managed a win streak there are painful signs that they are running extremely hot and will regress badly, especially on defense but not limited to that. For example DeMarco Murray is on a record pace of carries and he's never even made it through a full season with a far lesser load, and did I mention he's been fumbling a lot?

You can make a strong case for the offense if healthy, but down the stretch can you really expect guys like Scandrick, Carr and a bunch of replacement players to hold up better than a defensive group like Seattle's? Especially when so many of them have recent injury history? They're an injury away from Weeden at QB or an undrafted rookie starting at corner.

1. Cowboys is insane. Most likely they don't win a rematch versus Seattle if they met again in the playoffs or even next week. Great game, obv very happy with result, but an okay team upsetting a top team is something that happens. They're better than 15 but there's at least 8 teams they're a dog to right now imo.

Aren't Tannehill's numbers eerily similar to Luck's over their first two seasons?

Also, quick question.
I am currently not sure where the NEP fit into a ranking, but over the last two weeks it seems fairly obvious to me they must be ranked higher than the Bengals. Anyone disagree with that?

Especially if it's true that AJ Green will require surgery.

My Power Rankings (50% accomplishments and 50% forward looking)



The ELITE AFC WEST

1. Denver-Still got the best QB in the game and he has tons of weapons. The defense is solid, but not elite. They'll be in the top tier all year barring injuries to Peyton, at least 2 WRs/Julius or some crazy combo of of 3+ skill players and OL.
2. San Diego-Philip Rivers may be the second best QB in the game. They have no running game, but I honestly don't think it matters since they seem like they'll sling it around if the game is tight or they trail. The defense seems pretty good though I can't name anyone on that side of the ball for them.
   
   
   They are NOT who we thought they were
3. Dallas-An inexplicably good defense and by far the best rushing game in the league thanks to Demarco Murray and a great run blocking O-Line. Romo has enough weapons to make things happen with Dez and Terrence Williams that I think they should be able to score with anyone. Probably the only team in the league who should ESTABLISH 25x a game.
   
   
   Real Contenders
4. Seattle-Ummm...I didn't like the idea of 4. anyone else so this is by default I guess. Whatever. They have lost to two top 3 teams and been taken to OT by the other, but their schedule won't be so brutal all season. The defense is still good and I think Rustle is actually making pretty solid improvements even since last year.
5. Arizona-As long as Logan Thomas isn't their QB they have great potential. This team has been as crippled by injuries (Palmer, Ellington gimpy, defense) as any so a 4-1 record with wins over SD and SF and the only loss to DEN is a great start to the season. They're better than pretty much everyone thinks and have a pretty decent coach imo.
6. Indianapolis-Andrew Luck is really ****ing good, but its a legitimate handicap to continually establish TRich on key first and second downs EVERY ****ING DRIVE. They would be at least one spot higher if TRich was not a thing that had a roster spot.
7. Cincinnati-I believe in the Ginger and Marvin Lewis more than almost everyone here probably. GIO is a legit talent and a valuable feature back who can run inside and out as well as be a dangerous receiving threat out of the backfield. AJG will be back and so will Marvin Jones, but Sanu has proven to be a real threat in the meantime. Their run defense is a glaring concern, but I think they have just enough offense and just enough defense to be a real threat.
8. Philadelphia-Despite looking like the best team in football on Sunday night I will give them very little credit and instead just discredit the Giants. Their defense is not good despite the fact that they seemingly score every game. Foles is not good. Shady...well idk what happened to him but its concerning. They really are pretty decent, but not good at basically every phase of the game.
9. DETROIT MICHIGAN-This defense is legit and MEGATRON will be healthy at some point. Their 2-3 headed backfield is dangerous enough to get a little respect from defenses and Tate is proving to be a reliable pass catcher.
10. Green Bay-Godgers is still good and with Jordy and Cobb he is always a threat to put up 30+. However, I just cannot rank this team any higher with FAT MIKE at the helm. He is ****ing atrocious and establishes at the most inopportune times (which is 90% of the time with this offense, but he picks the worst of those) and otherwise seems willing to give games away. Him taking the points on 4th and 6 down 7 in the redzone with like 4 min to play this week was unforgivable and almost cost them the game.
11. Baltimore-Is this team a real contender? I kinda think they might be. The run game is much improved, but not great and Flacco has performed well enough to deserve to be in this tear.
    
    
    I believe all of these teams are pretenders, but expect most people have them higher
12. New England-Brady is washed up and Gronk is his only real weapon. I don't put much stock in the past 2 weeks being reflective of his ability right now.
13. San Francisco-I have no faith in Kaep and consequentially no faith in this offense.
14. Carolina-The defense is much worse than I realized and that isn't a problem that fixes itself. The running game is the worst in football outside of Florida and Oakland (yes, even SD and IND have Oliver and Bradshaw, respectively). Cam to Kelvin and Olsen can only work for so long.
15. Chicago-Offense is explosive but not consistent which is a problem in my eyes. The defense seems pretty dreadful. I don't have faith in Cutler winning a ton of shootouts even though I think he can keep pace and win about half of them.
    
    
    Varying degrees of baffling and bad
16. Cleveland-Hoyer is good () I think.
17. Atlanta-The O-Line (post-injuries) is probably the worst unit in football and the defense is deplorable. Matt Ryan has a capable 4 headed backfield, one of the best WRs in football, and a wide open gameplan though so they are a threat on any given day.
18. Houston-JJ WATT has surpassed Peyton Manning as my favorite player to watch. Peyton has held this title basically since Barry Sanders retired with a few (fan inspired) lapses in favor of Mike Vick between 2002 and 2005. Arian Foster, Andre Johnson, and Hopkins are just enough to make the Harvard led offense passable.
19. New Orleans-I did not foresee the decline of DRU BREE, but without BASKETBALL this team could feasibly be overrated here.
20. lol stealers-Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell are sick weapons, but the rest of this team sucks. Big Rape and Heath look done and Wheaton doesn't look like what we were promised.
21. New York Giants-I have no idea what to make of this bipolar team, but it seems like the offensive line blows and ELI isn't that good. The Cruz injury depletes the only deep unit on this team. The defense is barely passable at best. Not a good combo.
    
    
    These teams are bad, but are capable of beating a flawed top 10 team if everything goes right
22. Buffalo-They are a decent bit below average at everything. I have no idea how they got to 3-3.
23. Miami-The best thing I have to say about this team is that they are too good for the lol Florida group.
24. Minnesota-TEDDY GOATWATER and McKinnon should have the offense trending up, but the whole team sucks so that's just a silver lining.
25. Kansas City-Meh, they seem slightly better than the teams in the tier below if for no other reason that a marginally better QB and a dangerous run game even though its wildly inconsistent.
    
    
    AWFUL
26. New York Jets-Rex Ryan is the biggest asset this team has. That should never be said about any team given the quality of coaching in this league. They have no QB, no RBs, and no WRs. I guess they are good at stopping the run?
27. St. Louis-I have been pleasantly surprised by lanky dru bree...I mean Austin Davis and Brian Quick. The defense is way worse than expected and they have nothing else going for them though.
28. Tennessee-Idk, maybe some combo of Sankey, Hunter, and whatever QB plays can get this team on track. As is they are bad, but not near as bad as the tiers below them.
    
    
    BEYOND AWFUL
29. Washington-Cousins sucks, Morris sucks, the defense sucks, the owner sucks, the team name sucks, they suck.
30. Oakland-This is not the team Oakland needs, but it is the one it deserves.
    
    
    FLORIDA
31. Tampa Bay-They have a young QB who has a little promise and 2 decent WRs. Everything else about this team blows.
32. Jacksonville-They actually have a promising young core of skill position players and I am really high on Bortles, but the O-line and every position on defense is so terrible it hurts to watch.

Denver
Seattle
San Diego
San Francisco
Arizona
Indianapolis
Green Bay
Carolina
Cincinnati
Dallas

You could probably just shuffle up 3-12 (11. Eagles, 12. Pats) and come out with just as defensible a ranking.

flip giants and chiefs, cdl

er and the lol stealer's. they are bad. chiefs better than the 5 teams you have directly above them.

I think in general we're still underrating Cle too

No. No, they are not. This question offends me.

Heh

I wouldn't argue with either of these. Still seems like the stealers and giants should be better than the chiefs.

Not really that different considering one QB of the two is supposed to be the next PM and one is on his way out of the league, according to some.
Sure Luck is the better QB, but...

2013
Dolphins
60.4 3,913 24 17 81.7

2013
Colts
60.2 3,822 23 9 87.0

I suspect that the gap is at least driven in part by the surrounding talent. In season 1 his WR1 was Brian Hartline. Season 2 he had that disaster of an o-line. Season 3 at least in the early going he's suffered from an inordinate number of drops. Of course, the same clueless coaching that allowed the Incognito/Martin mess is the one responsible for his development. Maybe the eye-testers just want him to be better because they feel like he can be with the right coaching and some reliable receivers (and assuming Landry develops, I don't think that core is too bad, if not great).

I don't know how good he can be, but I feel like this is a similar conversation to the one surrounding Jay Cutler when McDaniels decided to trade him. I don't think Tannehill is a *great* QB and it's unlikely he ever will be but it's certainly possible for him to get to that Cutler level of "reliable starter for years."

8. Baltimore is the most questionable ranking I have. Flacco's been steady enough this season to win with even discounting the ridiculous beating they just put on TB. Justin Forsett's due to drop off but they're getting something out him for now. Indy should be 8, Dal 9, and I guess someone like GB or NE at 10? Car? Might as well be pulling names out of a hat

I've seen two sets of rankings now that have both Cleveland and Houston ahead of New Orleans. I'd like to place some kind of ROS bet on that.

The issue is that you're using stats that are poor representations of performance. Luck's ANY/A (which gives better weighting to touchdowns and interceptions than QB rating, and includes sacks) was more than a full yard higher than Tannehill's. Advanced stats have the gap even wider: Luck has consistently added far more expected points and wins than Tannehill. Tannehill has never been in Luck's league in terms of the numbers that reflect actual performance.

what is an ROS bet?