I can get behind this list.

WRT Blackmons college career, is there anyone that comes close to being that good in college? 2x Belitnikof winner. 2x All American. 1x Conference offensive POY. He was a cant miss prospect WR and hasnt dissapointed. If he got drafted to a halfway competent team this discussion would have taken place a long time ago.

Also, one other young WR to add to the list.... T.Y Hilton anyone?

Yeah he's basically pointing out an error by the typist. lol. Get that noise outta here.

wow, you guys got trolled hard. or the double troll got me.

Lol it's sort by record until #22

I got into a 20 minute argument about this with a guy who is pretty smart about football in general. His main argument for why I was wrong for saying Trestman is right was that every expert says he was wrong.

Then we all sit here and wonder why coaches don't go for proper 4th down decisions. Not getting it in an obvious situation and even winning the game and there are people killing you for the decision. These same reporters start asking the players if they felt "disrespected" or if they agree with Trestman not trusting his defense. The players groupthink is already we should "put the points on the board." It's a freaking avalache in your own locker room.

TY has a lot of improvements to make before we talk about him near Blackmon. He'll likely never reach that level.

Fast guy, decent hands, but has struggled to get open at times and is wildly inconsistent.

Also, his coaches don't allow his qb to throw much, which isn't optimal.

MEGA was easily a better prospect

I was at the Texans-Rams game Sunday with my brother and dad. On 4th and goal from the 2, down 10-0, the Texans kicked a FG.

Me and my dad had a little argument about what was correct there. He dropped "you gotta get points on the board" on me, as well as "You gotta make it a 1 score game" (this was in the first quarter lol). It was really tough dropping it. He's an intelligent guy, too. I don't get it. Smart people are rooted in all the cliches from 3 decades ago.

I told him "but dad you are forgetting if they go for it and fail, they've got the Rams buried at the 2". "Yeah but that just means they'll drive 98 yards instead of 80". OK..... so.... the defense is a sieve so it's better to play a less aggressive strategy when you're already down by 10? Sigh. Rams did score to make it 17-3 and I dropped a "Glad they didn't go for it earlier." Silence.

Game was brutal. We were all pissed off lol. My dad is basically my same IQ and stubborn-ness, only he's got much more anger. If you can imagine. Some of the **** he was screaming was pretty lol. Ah well.

Wow i didn't realize the Chiefs would face the Broncos almost back to back (weeks 11/13)

is it just me or is the chiefs entire schedule outside those two games a who's who of "meh" to "lol"

Outside of @Den, Den, and Ind, they don't have a single game against a team that is in the top 10 of any reasonable power rankings.

Also of note the giants have faced the hardest SoS so far by a fair margin

Miami has softest SoS here on out

Does SoS exclude W/Ls against the team in question? Shouldn't get penalized for beating a team.

Off the top of my head I think of Braylon Edwards and Roy Williams but could be totally wrong.

TY Hilton is arguably a top ten WR in a dynasty format. Obviously not close to Blackmon though.

Michael Crabtree was crazy good at Texas Tech. Lol Big12 defenses.

Larry Fitzgerald was amazing at Pitt.

I'm quite sure he's not using W/L SoS as that's a pretty worthless method.

"How can the Saints be ahead of the Pats? Same W-L record but Pats just beat them straight up!"

My Dad's similar; although he's smarter than me and less angry. Receptive to new info, but skeptical of breaks from conventional wisdom.

He was hard to budge off the trite wisdom of yesteryear, but eventually he's come around somewhat. Not sure he's a fan of 4th and 4 from midfield yet tho.

It's astonishing how ingrained poor football equity awareness is; even among the highly intelligent. I really think, to borrow a riff from Assani, it almost takes someone with a serious poker background to block out the cognitive biases endemic to small sample sizes that have massive immediate consequences.

To use poker terms, there are plenty of +ev spots to go for it where it's also +ev to kick and the difference between missing the 4th down conversion and making the high-percentage FG makes a GTO-esque case of taking the lesser EV to not risk widening the gap.

Again, using poker terms, football games are small in sample and not many teams make the playoffs so they should play more like sit n gos than cash games or MTTs.

I'm guessing a huge majority of smart NFL SE regs don't have a "serious poker background" though. I know I don't.

I do think reading poker theory books helped me though understand how counter-intuitive decisions can often be the correct ones mathematically. Just stuff like overcalls in limit ("What? Why do I want MORE players in the pot!? I want to get into a limit RAISE WAR with fewer players!") and the concept of quartering yourself in omaha8, etc.

People don't have to play poker to understand why going for it on 4th and an inch can be a good idea but I guess we've dealt with tens of thousands of simulations of very close to 50/50 EV decisions so maybe it's just automatic for us.

Crabtree

2x Biletnikoff as a RS freshman and RS soph
2x unanimous All-American
First freshman to win AT&T POY

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael...ee#Recognition

It is strange how frequently the crowd will encourage the team to go for it in 4th down situations.... and the coach usually chooses to (mistakenly) kick. The steady hand in a mass of impatience.

It probably has less to do with their understanding of math, and more to do with their dislike of pussy punters/kickers.

Confirmed always yelled go for it even before knowing some math.