ANFL has it somewhere. You're right that YPP isn't perfect here, but the EPA analyses (which take this stuff into account) show the same imbalance.

Can't recommend the PFR play index finder highly enough. It has all this stuff.

Yep.

Just to be a nit, equilibrium requires the marginal value to be equal, not the average value. In football that might result in total value being equal, but not necessarily. Think of the usage/efficiency tradeoff in basketball for example, a three point specialist will be extremely efficient, but asking them to take on any additional usage is a task much better suited to an overall less efficient chucker.

Re: GOAT

He made 2 nice throws to Decker last night that I didn't see last year. Arm strength could be back in the top 30 now.

You're correct, but it boils down to the same thing in football. (It's not really a nitpick -- the fact that marginal value should be essentially equal to average value for run/pass in a given situation in football is a core point in the overall analysis.)

LOL Raining Men. Player hating biatch. Never seen someone so bitter, thanks for posting that stuff from the Manning thread.

.

1) Broncos 4-0
2) Lions 3-1
3) Seahawks 4-0
4) Saints 3-0
5) Dolphins 3-0
6) Chiefs 4-0
7) Texans 2-2
8) Patriots 4-0
9) Bears 3-1
10) Browns 2-2

With Jacksonville's offense, Kubiak will probably start running out the clock after the Texans go ahead 3-0 on a 12-play, 78-yard drive.

Why Lions only at 2?

Thanks, DB, I'll check that stuff out.

Taking Run EPA/P and Pass EPA/P for individual teams paints a slightly different picture than the aggregate data suggests. Seven teams have higher run EPA/P than pass. Eight more are equal (HOU) or essentially equal in EPA whether they run or pass, including, interestingly, Indianapolis. The teams with elite passing games and poor running games (Denver, San Diego, New Orleans, Green Bay, Seattle) skew the overall numbers pretty significantly. Those five teams should definitely pass more--especially Seattle.

Injuries and JAX respectively.

Far as I can tell Spillers injury is recent, and I have no idea what's up with Ridley

and this drive will take 24 minutes

Legit question that I really don't have the answer for at the moment.

Seriously though, take Jacksonville against the spread in the first Houston game and print money. Kubiak will keep it close out of respect for the other coach (who shall remain nameless because, well, I don't know his name yet).

Mayhew should be working 24/7 to extend Suh. Such a beast this and that 22m cap hit next year which would be brought down with said extension

Interesting post, and make me look some stuff up.

Was really surprised to see SEA at -EPA/P on running.

Lollll SRM/G10

as far as manning goes i definitely admit to grossly underestimating his longevity and grossly overestimating the impact his injury would have on him

as far as the lions go, well, they're basically the same team that went 10-6 and were on the cusp only now they actually have a legitimate running game. if they beat green bay, them being top 5 is probably correct

Some of that is explainable by sample size. Schaub (whether he's as bad as phb thinks or not) is unlikely to keep chucking a pick six per game, and I'd guess DAL and CHI won't keep showing run EPA/P > pass EPA/P the whole season. With Indianapolis, QB runs are skewing the data (this is a factor for every team, but this is the most obvious statistical example). If you look at the team page, Luck's averaging .26 EPA/P overall, while the RB grouping is almost exactly 0 EPA as a whole.

The overall situation is definitely most egregious with the elite passing offenses, though. The mistakes are larger in point magnitude, and they're higher-leverage because these are (by and large) the teams with real playoff/ring equity.

I think the Browns can win this division. Everyone is bad and the Bengals have Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalolton, and key injuries.

is hoyer better than dalton, riv?

edit: and in other news, rivers is back to being a v good qb now that norv is gone. prob resolved to play badly until norv got fired.

I expect the Browns to win the division.

STA,

Seems likely. So far, absolutely, but sample size etc.

Strange about Manning. He hasn't been at this level in almost ten years and had settled into mere top-5 QB caliber status for the last several years. He's so locked in now, and losing Clady did absolutely nothing.