Seahawks had the top red zone defense in the league the last time a graphic of that kind was shown during a game, so there's that. Don't know if that statistic still holds.

Otherwise this post is on point. It felt like the game was teetering on the brink of going very wrong, but the defense kept hanging in there and then the offense had a 4th quarter surge to pull it out.

not sure why you guys are knocking Peter King when he is 100% correct. Did any of you guys know they were 12-0 on the road since 2005 before he wrote about it?

Peter King should have said, SB winners have won 12 games on the road since 2005. It's understood that those teams have not lost.

the whole thing was that is was written really poorly, like he has no concept of #'s

he says "away teams have won 41% of games in the playoffs recently" and then presents that as some magic #. but is that good? or bad? or how does that compare to what we normally see in the regular season? or how does that compare between what we normally see between good teams in the regular season?

thats what he should be doing, instead the assumption is that 41% means something significant in playoff games or is a rule of some kind

Why would anyone hate the Seahawks??? There aren't a ton of STL/SF/Ariz fans on 2p2, so it woudn't be division rivalry causing the hate. The Seahawks haven't been great recently, so nobody hates them due to their success. They don't have any particularly unlikable players, so its not that.

Seems to me like its just a bunch of Seahawks homers who weren't posting a ton before but who have started posting more and more now. They are being vocal and somewhat obnoxious, and its causing a bit of backlash.

Seattle is a good team. They are somewhere in that 3rd tier for sure. As I've been saying, teams like that can go on a run and win the SB.

Yeah, it's this

But if you can't obnoxiously homer it up after a 58-0 win, when the **** can you?

My point was that there are a ton of teams who could go on a SB winning run right now and, looking back, you could create a narrative about how they were good all along. Since I"m very familiar with them, take the Redskins: Suppose they go either 2-1 or 3-0 to make the playoffs and then go 4-0 in the playoffs to win the SB. Then the narrative could be: "They were 1-5 without Garcon, and 13-1 with him(change that to 12-2 if they go 2-1 to make the playoffs). Obviously they were a SB caliber team all along that just needed their #1 WR."

I think you can look back and create that type of reasoning for every team(that is currently in the top 3 tiers). I bet if you go back and look at these weekly threads after week 15 the past two years that people weren't super high on the Giants and Packers.

point differential matters. Its not like they've been getting blown out on the road....

7 road games: 2-5 record, -13 PD, no loss by more than 7 points


Basically the Seahawks have ran well in close home games but ran slightly bad in close road games, and so it makes their home/road disparity, which was perhaps already the NFL's biggest, look even bigger than it really is.

The "retrospective narrative" thing might be true with the Giants, but the Packers were pretty obviously an excellent team (concerns over Rodgers' health at this specific point in the season aside). After 14 games they were 8-6 with a +113 PD: 2 of their losses coming in overtime, 2 by a combined touchdown where Flynn played all or most of the game, and the other 2 both by a FG.

you're definitely right about the Packers. I also may be biased because both the Redskins and Ravens are in the group of teams we are discussing.

It just seems like people are underrating variance and underrating how different our views of a team will look should they go on a 7-1 or 8-0 stretch to end the season.

Why is the ML on Detroit not absolutely ridiculous? After Arizona's last outing, I would have expected it to be (-500) this week.

Wrt Ravens having low SB equity, they have one high-quality win (Pats), a game they were very fortunate to win and that featured key players that have since been lost for the season. The only other elite team they played (HOU) trounced them. They couldn't put away a Charlie Batch-led Steelers team, and they rank 16th and 19th in DVOA on offense and defense.

They have a QB that struggles mightily under pressure, a very thin secondary, and an uninspiring pass rush. Denver, NE, and Houston are head and shoulders above them. I don't see Baltimore knocking off any of those 3 teams in the playoffs, and they would likely need to beat two of them to get to the SB.

yea this idea that the Seahawks are a bad road team is pretty lol and clearly based off of absolutely nothing other than wins/losses

Coin flip wild card game then 3-1 dogs in the remaining games is about 0.75% equity. That might be a touch harsh, so lets say 1.25%ish equity each for teams like the Ravens and Colts

Yeah, this. Gave up two winning scores in the final minute and got stopped inside the 10 yard line in the final minute of another. The 7-point loss to San Fran was far and away Seattle's most decisive road loss, and that was a one-score game wire to wire.

I like the Seahawks although i think its kinda shady how one of their CB's dropped his appeal to start the 4 game suspension while the other keeps filing motions to delay the appeal so he can keep playing.

Obviously its smart to not have them both gone at the same time but seems wrong that they can manipulate the system this way.

Will you feel the same way if Sherman wins his appeal?

why cant they just do whatever they do at the appeal before announcing the suspension. whole process seems stupid, you shouldnt get to choose when to take your punishment for cheating

What did Mr. Ed do to you?

In many cases they don't say anything until after it is settled. In some cases the original indictment is released before the appeal process begins. I think the intention is to keep it out of the public eye whenever possible, but obviously no one is capable of keeping secrets and so they leak it.

Obviously not, but when they both are appealing then 1 drops the appeal while the other keeps trying to delay the appeal it does paint a picture of what is happening.

Kolb: 4-2
183 pass attempts
59.6% comp
8 td 3 int
6.4 y/a
12.9% sack rate

Skelton + Lindley: 0-7
320 pass attempts
52.0% comp
2 tds 14 int
5.1 y/a
7.0% sack rate

So they've played 2 elite teams and gone 1-1 against them, and thats a major argument for why they don't have SB equity?

Yes they did go 1-1 against the Ben-less Steelers, and it would've inspired a lot more confidence if they went 2-0. And yes they got blown out by Houston. However, this is still largely the same team that lost a heartbreaker to NE in the AFC Title Game last year, and they have a legit shot at the #2 seed still considering the matchups this week(SF@NE, Den@Balt).

I don't like making this argument for the Ravens because it makes it look like I'm only arguing for my home teams- my real argument is that all of these 2nd/3rd tier teams have legit SB equity.

The Ravens just aren't very good...however that could change if/when Ray gets back

Assani,

Define legit. Also check the Super Bowl futures (I understand these aren't just a clear cut answer). I suspect you're either overstating their equity or people are assuming you mean something different than you do when you say legit.