All good - FWIW, all trolling aside, it's just funny to mock how bad Bradford is. Checkdown champion who cannot deal with pressure whatsoever. I don't think you're a mark for taking the bet, I just thought his MVP odds were crazy because they basically required a not so good Vikings team to get 14+ wins for him to even have a chance at winnings since he's never putting up big $tat$. Obviously you lose the bet the huge majority of the time even with an efficient market when it was made, no big deal. 16:1 was definitely an awful bet ever though, but I have no idea what fair odds would've been at the time.




Dak is awesome, but yeah I still give huge credit to OL for that. He's got all day to throw. You could argue he benefits as much or more than Zeke from it. One of the biggest things young QBs struggle with is dealing with pressures and he rarely does. Doesn't hurt he's got good legs though.

Not sure who I'd vote for MVP right now. Probably Brady, with Zeke/Ryan/Dak/Carr in some order following. Need to see how ROS plays out.

The poster was saying that the Saints suck even with Drew Brees, not that Drew Brees sucks. "Tenticals not testicals, nt big difference."

~10,000:1

To start, the OL and Zeke are definitely doing great. Having that much talent around you can make anyone look good really and I understand that. Watching all the Dallas games over the last few years though has made it easy for me to pinpoint exactly what it is that Dak does so well so far: end game situations.

Dallas has put out a good offense for most of the last decade, but where they really failed was being unable to put games away late. In fact, from 2011-2014 Dallas had the most blown 4th quarter leads at 19*! 19. Whether it was due to Romo making costly mistakes, Garrett turtling up and being too conservative, an atrocious defense, or (mostly likely) a combo of the three, the end result was Dallas would get into situations where they had a chance to win a game and for some reason didn't.

That's not happening now and I argue Dak as the main reason why. Yes, the OL is wonderful. Yes, Zeke has been able to grind out clock. But when I go look at the last 5 games, I'm seeing games that old Dallas (and a lot of the above average but not elite teams in recent memory) would end up losing a couple of:

Vs Washington
Washington scores with 9:22 to go in 4th quarter to make it 24-19 Dallas. Dak goes 2/3 with a passing first down, a rushing first down, and they score a TD. Washington gets the ball back with 6:29 to go down 31-19 and the game is pretty much put away.


Vs Baltimore
Baltimore scores with 8:16 to go in the 4th to make it 24-17 Dallas. Dak goes 3-3 on the drive with 3 passing first downs as the team eats the clock all the way down to 1:50 and kicks a field goal to put it out of reach.


@ Pitt
Pit scores to go up 24-23 with 7:51 left. Dak goes 6-6 on the drive with 2 first down throws and Dallas scores a TD to go up 29-24 with 1:55 left.

Pit scores with 0:42 to go to take a 30-29 lead. Dak goes 3/4 with 2 passing first downs and Dallas scores to win 35-30.


@ Cleveland
Blowout, so irrelevant


V Phi
Down 23-16 with 6:26 to go. Dak goes 4/7 with 3 passing first downs, a rushing first down, and a passing TD to tie the game with 3:04 to go. The game goes to overtime, where on the first drive Dak is 5/5 with 3 passing first downs, a rushing first down, and the game winning passing TD.


Dak has just been so efficient in high leverage portions of the game (either by extending drives to eat clock or by driving down the field to tie/take the lead). A 3 and out in the Washington or Baltimore game in those spots give them the chance to tie or take the lead with plenty of time left. Instead the game is essentially over when they get the ball back. A failed drive in the Pit or Phi games and they just lose. Instead there's multiple long drives ending in touchdowns to snatch a win away.


MVP is hard to say. I don't know who I have in the lead right now. There are a lot of great players around him that help him out. It makes things easier for him, sure. But I've seen what this Dallas team is with a replacement QB: 4-12. Yeah, that was without Zeke, without Dez a lot (though Dak has missed Dez a bit too), and is a different team at other points as well. But I think I can confidently say that based on these last 5 game, Dallas with a replacement level QB is not 5-0. Nor 4-1. Maybe, maybe 3-2.

I just think at this point he has to be in the conversation.

*I am aware that appears to be a random blog post. However since it's just raw data and not anything involving interpreting that data, I think it's ok to use.

As a hawks fan I think it's ridiculous that dak goat but Wilson was only good bc defense and lynch.

Dak can't carry Wilson's jock

Saints are actually better this year than the last two. (DVOA confirms with them 14th, and that's with all the injuries.) Arguably have three fluke losses on their schedule. Win two and they're tied for the division right now. The return of Sheldon Rankins has substantially improved the pass rush, and Michael Thomas is having the best season of any rookie WR so far.

Re: Dallas, I don't think you can separate any one component above the whole. The OL has had injuries to La'el Collins and Tyron Smith, so it's not just them. Zeke is an elite back whose versatility and high success rate open up the offense. And Dak is an extremely efficient player who makes good decisions and comes through late in the game (and whose own rushing ability opens up the offense itself).

Dallas is #1 in offensive DVOA right now, and Dak is 2nd in passing DVOA, third in passing DYAR, and second in total DYAR among QBs when you include his rushing, moving ahead of Matt Ryan (but still behind Drew Brees).

Yeah, as I made clear before, I was a big Bradford doubter but I've come around based on the work of some people I think are really good at QB evaluation (mostly Cian Fahey). And he does make some throws where you see him stand in against pressure and deliver a tough, accurate ball. But that line is so bad it's wrecked the entire offense. I thought his odds were slim, but not so slim that the bet wasn't worth taking.

I mean those people were wrong about Wilson, so

I need to remind people the cowboys had the same offensive line last year that they do this year.

Eh, kinda. It's all relative. Wilson's really good. The stuff about his supporting cast only came up when he was being compared to Andrew Luck. Same thing with Dak, he's performing really well under his circumstances, could he be doing what Mariota/Jameis are doing in Tennessee or Tampa Bay? I think not.

The Dallas team as a whole is much less hot & cold this year than it was in previous years, where one side of the ball would often disappear for far too long early in games.

The season so far:

Points scored in 1st half : 9, 13, 24, 14, 21, 17, 10, 21, 13, 10, 17
Points scored on their defense in 1st half : 13, 10, 3, 14, 0, 6, 13, 10, 15, 10, 6

They've taken a lead into halftime 7 times this year, with 2 ties & twice behind (by 4 & 2) at the half. The offense as a whole is very similar to the 2014 team barring the QB, but the defense has changed some.

The same stats for 2014 w/ Romo starting :

Points scored in 1st half : 3, 16, 10, 24, 3, 17, 14, 7, 24, 10, 7, 14, 21, 28, 27
Ponits scored against : 28, 0, 21, 0, 0, 10, 14, 3, 7, 21, 23, 7, 10, 0, 10

In these 15 games, Dallas lead 10 times @ half, tied once, and was down the other 4 times. But those 2014 numbers on both sides have a wider range/more variance to them.

Most of all, Dak is a great fit for this team. He is consistently making good decisions & working well with the tools he has to work with. Since we're consistently ahead or within a possession, he's not often going to be forced into high usage / slinging it around like Kirk, Jameis, or LOL BORT. I would kind of like to see them in that situation soon though, rather than have it come around possibly in the playoffs. Until then, it's just theorycraft.

So can he talk about Trump next? And maybe you can make a comment when he does.

I'm not sure what you mean?



Mariota doesn't have a serious volume argument over Dak (Winston's is better), so you're basically asking if you think Dak's efficiency would be at least as comparable to Mariota's and Winston's if he played on those teams. I think it would, yeah.

That isn't to say I don't think those other two guys aren't good, or franchise QBs. I myself was shocked to discover just how well Dak Prescott was performing once I seriously looked into the matter. I think people are prone to assuming the QB performance is a product of the team when it's such a shock from initial evaluations (4th-round QB who wasn't pro-ready), rather than being willing to let go of those initial evaluations when the evidence suggests they're wrong.

Yeah, I'd argue they are better than their record as Nath points out. Even so, my point is the Saints would be only a slight step ahead of the 49ers and Browns if they didn't have Brees. Clearly, he has a huge impact on the team. Winning isn't everything, but the Saints would probably be 1-9 without him.

It's not inconceviable that their game against the Falcons in Week 17 might be for the division.

Seattle offense ON A ROLL. Three points today.

Patriots seem... Not that good anymore

lol

They're 8-2 and they're trailing by one in a game where their QB is playing through a knee injury and their best receiver is out

Maybe you're jumping the gun?

Lol. nice try.

one field goal. Impressive

Terrible play calling at the death by the Raiders. They won anyway, so....RESULTS!...but they have 2nd & 9 on about their opponents 10 with 1.40ish to go in a tied game and they throw it twice?

just ****ing run the ball twice and eat up the clock and timeouts ffs

So ROMO gonna be the next Broncos QB right?

tonight's game confirmed two compelling reasons why that won't happen.

Semen looked very composed in the second half, made good decisions, executed pretty well and showed he can become a reliable game manager QB who can beat bad and average teams and 'not lose' to good teams and potentially be even better than that

O Line S-T-I-N-K-S and there is absolutely no point paying 8 figures to a brittle Tony Romo to play behind it. Dude would have broken both collarbones and his back in that game...at least 20 something QBs bounce a little

Using NFLPlayoffPredictor.com. Made Broncos, Chiefs, Dolphins, Patriots & Raiders all 12-4. Patriots miss the playoffs.

Pretty good week with browns on bye and 9ers bears playing each other making a solid # of interesting games. None of them are at night though.