This is great

OMG Justin Tuck needs his own show on the NFL Network. I'd watch him tell stories all day. Too damn funny. WOOT WOOT!

bell suspension reduced to 2 games.

Rog sticks Brady with the initial 4 game suspension...

Jonathan Martin is retiring RIP in peace bullygate

If it wasn't for the fact that the whole bell thing denies us an opportunity to lol stealers, bell being reduced and Brady being upheld would be glorious

The Wells Report Science is total junk

Other NFL owners who have Goodell's ear have been lobbying him to come down hard on Brady

HARVARD LAWYER

I'll always remember Larry Allen for this play

Hopefully Richie Incognito shows up at Martin's presser and just glares at him the whole time

If you can find me a team that would have boosted their record record by three wins based purely on mathematical decisions WRT to kicking FG's/punting/going for it then let me know. There should apparently be a heap of teams to have done so for "math guy" to add three wins a year

Yeah, teams should go for it more, I agree with that. But this one math guy is not going to turn a 7-9 team into 10-6 every year.

As per this Grantland article, the decision to kick the FG cost GB approx 1.3 points

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/af...hawks-packers/

Are you telling me that you assign 100% of the chance of a win and loss on that particular decision and its 1.3 points of expectation (and the other short field goal), as opposed to

- The Bostick fumble
- The inability for GB to defend the 2pt conversion when Wilson threw over the rainbow
- Not letting Aaron Rodgers play before they needed to go hurry up in the last minute of play.

Yeah, making good math decisions is good. Not three wins good

This article (few years old) suggests that a HoFer QB is worth 2.6 wins on average over their backups

http://thebiglead.com/2011/09/06/how...manning-worth/

Making good math decisions is good, but these relatively small decisions are not worth 3 wins a year... Pretty sure even Mike Smith wouldn't have cost him team three wins year vs NYT robot who just made good decisions on 4th and x.

Stupid hyperbole with regards to how much making good decisions on 4th and x gains per season ruins its actual value (in that you add a small wp% for essentially free every time you make a good decision on 4th and x over a bad one, and steal the occasional victory over a large sample)

Lol

No way does a math expert make a 3 win difference. That said, even a 1 win difference is worth 100K.

That article of 2.6 referenced has this quote in it

"The Colts will not be nearly as bad as people think, as we tend to overestimate the value of the elite quarterback"

2010 Colts 10-6

2011 Colts without peyton manning worst team in the league 2-14 (not even close dude) They were actually much worse than people thought as people guessed an avg of 5.6 wins.

Just last year arizona's backups were terrible as expected and Carson going down killed their season.

1) All of the math decisions for say a bad team combined is like 1 win a year or something like that (maybe a little over). Another reason why no coach or w/e cares. Not worth media/fan hassle. Playoffs you see it open up a bit unless it's fat mike.

2) Marc Trestman Even when you get one you think might know; they do something stupid elsewhere and any added value is gone.

Jesus Christ Ashley. Shut up.

3 wins is hyperbole for the most part, but it's not as far off as you think.*

They kicked 2 field goals when they shouldn't have, not just 1. And 1.3 points in one road playoff game is worth more than 120K, so that alone pays for Will Hunting's entire annual salary.

*Largely, because almost every other coach in the league is also making multiple terrible decisions per game that a math nerd could fix. In other words, punting when you should go for it isn't as big a mistake when your opponent punts when they should go for it on the very next possession. But if you hire a math nerd and your opponent doesn't, it should yield a relatively dramatic positive result in the long run.

rog agrees with himself

brady is gonna sue

I'm actually rooting for brady in that fight. weird

Rog vs Brady is a true douche-off.

Can't I root for the judge to increase the length of the suspension?

I will always remember Brady lying through his teeth during that presser. It was so obvious his tell. His teeth were clenched and he was speaking in a much higher pitched voice. We've all seen Tom speak many times when he was relaxed and he was never like that. Obvious liar.

Green Bay has what, 10.5 win line this season?

If GB announce NYT4th down bot is making every decision on fourth down this year, what do you think that line becomes?

Good decisions on fourth are great, but they aren't worth all these wins you claim. Far closer to 0 than 3.

You probably think Seattle had a 100 WP% if Lynch had of ran in that SB play, so whatever...

One of them at least has their job based on merit

Man Garoppolo is good

What happens if Bledsoe never gets injured? Does another team discover Brady's genius or does he just have to wait a couple more years for Bledsoe to leave?

Man, that's a good question. My best guess is the latter, but mostly due to Bledsoe's age. Sort of like a much tougher version of the Peyton-Luck dilemma (which in context was not really a tough decision at all).

I don't get ashley's big gripe. He thinks a team spending $120K a year on a math nerd to assist on 4th down decisions is a net negative? What an expletive.

I said 3 wins is hyperbole but my point stands that it's somewhat funny a team won't hire a (presumably male) math nerd to help win games because (presumably) ZOMG NO RESPECT IN THE LOCKER ROOM but they just hired a female, who would face an even larger hurdle in that regard (probably).

Math nerds are minorities, too.

Is Kurt Warner ever Kurt Warner w/o Trent Green going down?

I don't know how many of my articles you've read but I've advocated for teams to just hire a kids who plays a ton of Madden for the role for years

My buddy Carolla also wants the goalposts extended further for field goals