I don't think you're breaking any ground by stating that a QB does better when his team establishes the run.

I've always made good points Epip, you just happen to be on the right side of an argument this time, ldo.

Congrats, you've independently discovered that if a QB won a game(and hence his RB ran a lot to run out the clock), then he probably had a good QB rating. :P

Bob, how many games have you watched of Ryan this year? Which games were they?


I'm getting a bit frustrated, but I know its my own fault because relying on "watch the games and you'll see I'm right!!!" is such an easy thing for anyone to say. However, I think I've earned some benefit of the doubt based upon my posting history. Its not like I use this thinking all the time.

I honestly feel that anyone who has watched Ryan this year would think that hes an elite QB and that the odds are good that he'll only be better next year.

Now I could be wrong on that, as I'm not the best NFL scout in the world. But ultimately I'd rather trust my own thoughts rather than just copy others.



Saying things like the above post are not good arguments against my points whatsoever. I'm not saying that his stats against the Saints are what made me take him. I'm saying that its from watching the games like the ones against the Saints and seeing the kind of plays hes making are what sold me.

I mean, are you of the opinion that a player can never be impressive if hes playing a bad defense?

32games in the span of 9months? that would be unbelievably brutal

I'm planning on taking him as late as I possibly can. Most likely that will be at least 1 month after he has finished playing this season. If the draft stalls a bit near the end like the bball one did, then it may even be 3 or 4 months after the season ends.

To break it down further:

Ryan when undrafted RB goes over 100 yards rushing

88/129 (68.2%), 1,233 yards, 8 TD/1 INT, 116.9 QB rating

Ryan when undrafted RB goes under 75 yards rushing

103/181 (56.9%), 1,209 yards, 4 TD/5 INT, 73.2 QB rating

I know this is common throughout the NFL, but to have it be this drastic? Ehh, I don't know but I feel bad because I don't dislike Ryan as much as I've probably made it seem.

It's more like hes gotta be impressive a lot of times against very tough defenses before u start throwing words like "elite" around

For a RB, yes. For a QB it probably depends upon how many hits he takes. I don't think its a stretch at all to think that he'll be 100% healthy after resting for an entire month. Hopefully the draft will drag a bit and I'll get him even later then.

It's late and my argument seemed stronger in my head, smartasses

He's having a great year--arguably the greatest rookie season at any position(only other possibilities I can think of are Greg Cook and Otto Graham) and it looks for all the world like he'll be a great QB for years. I do think there were better choices unless you just wanted to throw up a hail mary and even then there was at least one better choice.

Oh come on, it's clear they were using undrafted RB before they had won the game and run the ball to kill the clock.

I think it's a somewhat fair argument to say Matt Ryan is very dependant as of now on his running game.

He had one bad game against TB.

Romo looked horrible today against Pitt. Peyton Manning looked horrible against freakin' Cleveland this year.


It happens.


But Ryan has done tremendous in the past 7 weeks, and I think that makes up for one bad game IN THE SECOND GAME OF HIS ENTIRE CAREER ON THE ROAD AGAINST AN ELITE DEFENSE.

The man hasn't finished a season and he's already an elite QB? That's a bit extreme. I've seen Ryan play and he's good. Again, I'm not saying that he's a bad player. I'm saying that this isn't a good pick. You could have picked him very late in the draft or even picked him up undrafted.

-----------

It appears that most of the picks are done for the night. I'm gonna get into a turboament and hit the sack after I bust out early.

Not a big fan of the Ryan pick. There are QBs available who have averaged his production from this year over a three year period. Their projection in our league would have to be way higher than his...

Lofton was a good pick. Maybe you are only getting him at 95% of his peak or something, but that is still very good.

Please I beg you....try to find a tape of today's game. Hell, maybe it'll be shown on NFL Network this week as one of those quick replays.


I'm not a great scout, but I'm pretty damn confident about this one. Just watch him, and I think you'll change your mind.



Seriously if NFL Network shows the game this week will you guys try to watch it? I can't see how anyone can watch him and not come away thinking similar to me.




Anyway, now I'm gonna let this one go. This could probably be something we debate for days, but I really don't think its that interesting as the basic points have all been laid out, and now its just time to see if these past 7 weeks were a fluke or if hes legit.

I wouldn't call Romo an elite QB either though. Infact the QB I end up taking with him will be very good just like Romo and heck u might even be able to argue he is better than Romo.

The point is against all those even slightly above average defenses u listed earlier, he didn't have a great game in any of them.

RBs run more in games where QBs have a good rating. RBs run less in games where QBs have a bad rating. So arguing that a QB was much more likely to have a good rating in a game where the RB ran more is indicative of the QB being dependent on the run game doesn't seem like much of an argument to me.

Clearly Ryan is dependent on his running game, but the argument doesn't show that very well. I think the same trend would show up strongly for all QBs.

His production this year includes his first few games of his career. I'm going to be getting him at the end of this season, so his play in our league won't include those early growing pains.


Again, lets see what his production is next year, and then tell me how many QBs could put that up.

I will be much more interested in his next game against Tampa Bay (he plays them next week), that will say a lot more about him.

Even if he does play well vs Tampa, you still can't take anything for sure away from 1 game. That's the whole point, it will be at least a few years until we realize how good/bad Matt Ryan is. There is a ton of variance in 1 NFL game. However it will say a lot more about Ryan than a game against the Saints.

oh and today undrafted Falcons RB #1 had 18 carries for 61 yards(3.4 ypc) and undrafted Falcons RB #2 had 5 carries for 18 yards(3.6 ypc). Also the Saints got off to a 10-0 lead, so the Falcons had to play catchup.

Ryan was 24/33 for 315 yards, 2 TDs(1 rushing), 1 INT

Assani, I know you think that he is very good, especially for a rookie QB.

Can you tell me how he's going to do when faced with an elite defense every week and being depended on to throw the ball 35+ times a game while making quick reads on most of those plays? I don't think he's necessarily out of the list for best QBs available, but of all the QBs left you choose a rookie to run a pass-heavy system I just don't get it.

Round #16, Pick #499: Wesley Walls, TE



http://www.nydailynews.com/archives/...port_____.html
*I'm assuming he meant best tight end, and not one of the best tight ends, based on context.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/m..._80680576/pg_2
I'm taking Walls at age 30, when he had his first (and arguably best) year with Carolina in 1996, getting to the NFC Championship in just the team's second year. He made 61 catches for 713 yards and 10 touchdowns that year, which is also about the time those quotes were made. He validated his skills by making five pro bowls and finishing his career with 450 receptions and 54 touchdowns.

On my team, Walls joins Irvin and Keyshawn to create a formidable passing game. Factoring in Carson Palmer's high level of accuracy and sack avoidance, my offense is going to stay on the field for huge chunks of time, wearing out the defense and getting a lot of first downs. Walls was 6'5, 240 making him a huge target and even bigger pain for small DBs to cover. I don't know how good Walls was at blocking, maybe someone who has seen him play a lot can offer an opinion, but either way I had him as the best receiving tight end left which is why I traded up to pick him.

Enjoy this writeup because my next pick is a loooong ways away at #590.

Team Mikhail's Fortunes:
QB Carson Palmer
RB Frank Gore
WR Michael Irvin
WR Keyshawn Johnson
TE Wesley Walls
LG Mark Schlereth
C Jeff Hartings
RG Kevin Gogan

MLB Ray Lewis
OLB Jeremiah Trotter
OLB Joey Porter
DE Dwight Freeney
DT Keith Traylor
DT Darrell Russell
DE Dexter Manley
SS Lawyer Milloy
CB Fred Smoot

i was seriously considering taking walls in a few rounds and just flat out benching heap since i know i wouldnt be able to find anyone who would trade for him

man oh man why don't the falcons play the Steelers or the Ravens this year