NFL Modern Era Draft: Discussion Thread - Page 184 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

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10-24-2008 , 09:26 AM

#4576

NameOnTheCake

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Jesus christ guys. One pick, and now we're arguing about whether B Sanders held back the lions O line and QBs?

there better be a bunch of picks up by the time I'm off work or this thread is going to get such a virtual finger wagging

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10-24-2008 , 09:35 AM

#4577

capone0

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeff W

IMO Smith is overrated and he went no lower than he should have. He was the best WR in football once (2005) and otherwise he's just been another guy. Last year he had less than 7 yards/target. Outside of 2005 he has never looked great through the lense of advanced statistics.

Really just another guy, this is hard to believe. He probally isn't better than Brown but it's hard to doubt he's better that CJ. Your right in 1 year he is the best WR in football the rest he's been good but not really great. Another note 1 of his AP1 is as a returner so that hurts his "profile" as well. Last year he played with absolute crap for QB so I don't that's a good sample.

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10-24-2008 , 09:40 AM

#4578

battschr

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 2,931

Quote:

Originally Posted by wiper

Can someone post the spreadsheet link? I have it bookmarked at home, but can't get on 2+2 on my work computer, and it's take too long to find on my iPhone..

Once I get it, I'll bookmark it on my phone, graci..

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?k...C1n4HAIA&gid=0

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10-24-2008 , 09:43 AM

#4579

LurchySoprano

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One of the big arguments for Smith IMO is that he is such cash money in big games. IIRC he has 8-9 TD's scored in 6 career playoff games and the dude beat Chicago basically by himself in the playoffs a few years ago.

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10-24-2008 , 09:52 AM

#4580

Jeff W

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Quote:

Originally Posted by capone0

Really just another guy, this is hard to believe.

Yeah, I mean that's a bit harsh but outside of 2005 his highest rank in DPAR is 15th.

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He probally isn't better than Brown but it's hard to doubt he's better that CJ. Your right in 1 year he is the best WR in football the rest he's been good but not really great.

I don't see Smith as being clear cut better than CJ. Yes, Palmer>Delhomme but that only explains so much... it's not like Delhomme is a bum. Steve Smith has only ranked above Chad Johnson once in DPAR (in 2005 he was 1st and Johnson was 2nd). Johnson has ranked as one of the best WRs in the league multiple times.

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10-24-2008 , 09:56 AM

#4581

fanmail

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Albert Lewis baby! Late 80's-early 90's Chiefs D ftw.

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10-24-2008 , 10:06 AM

#4582

EPiPeN11

banned

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 18,605

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeff W

Sanders is simultaneously a great player and an overrated player. Inconsistency has a price. Consider hypothetical RBs Mr. 2.5

Mr. 2.5 runs with a Y/C of 2.5 and a SD=0.

Mr. 2.5 gets an atrocious Y/C, but he is nonetheless the greatest player in NFL history. A team with Mr. 2.5 would score on every possession.

From this thought experiment, it's clear that consistency is a valuable asset and Y/C doesn't tell the whole story.

Barry Sanders was a great RB, but his skillset is such that he is overrated by casual statheads who become enamored with the 5.0.

Everyone is quick to blame his offensive line, but if you do some research you'll see that his offensive line was not as bad as advertised. Detroit actually invested quite a bit in their offensive line and Barry played with three multiple-Pro Bowlers and a lot of OL who were 8+ year starters in the NFL. Were they as good as Dallas? Of course not, but they're nowhere near as bad as the Sanders apologists claim.

I agree 100% with this, Sanders IS overrated because his 5-6 YPC isn't as good as it sounds (ie. would be much better if someone didn't have as many long runs but was more consistant in moving the chains).

Sanders is still a great player obviously, just that it's harder to win games with him as ur RB than some other RB's who were more consistant even if they had somewhat lower YPC.

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10-24-2008 , 10:07 AM

#4583

EPiPeN11

banned

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 18,605

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeff W

Wow I highly disagree with this, just another guy lol. I mean look at his freaking QB's, u guys complain about Tim Brown's QB's but when Smith's slightly above average QB got hurt, he played with even worse ones. Also he is probably considered the best WR in football this year as well.

Also u seem like a stat guy, very interested if u (or anyone else) can find Smith's stats when he plays with slightly above average QB and when he doesn't.

Last edited by EPiPeN11; 10-24-2008 at 10:18 AM.

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10-24-2008 , 10:43 AM

#4584

Zimmer4141

Wet

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 33,715

Steve Smith is a pretty sick pickup. I'm not necessarily looking to go WR with my 5th rounder, but Smith was the one guy that I said I can't pass on if he falls to me.

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10-24-2008 , 10:53 AM

#4585

Undertaker.

enthusiast

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 73

I think Buffalo and Tennessee are shocking how they're doing. The busts would include San Diego and the Colts. Of course you can conclude the Patriots but they are looking good without Brady.

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10-24-2008 , 10:53 AM

#4586

wiper

still catching up

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 42,642

this will eventually go in my writeup, but the consensus on timmy brown was that his peak wasn't high enough, he was just steady. So this time I take Steve Smith for his peak, and he's not steady enough?? :-)

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10-24-2008 , 11:00 AM

#4587

capone0

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Quote:

Originally Posted by wiper

Heh.

One note I thought Jake's stats were bad without SS, this isn't true his 2004 season without SS is pretty damn good to my suprise. Although from 2003 to 2004 they went from SB participants to 7-9 and out of the playoffs but I think that had more to do with the decline of their D than anything. Their O was actually higher ranked without SS which again is a shock. 2005 they rebounded again and their D improved.

As someone else said the most impressive thing about SS is his playoff performances. In this type of league with stacked Ds, he basically owned a very good Chicago D. He also owned St Louis and Dallas in the playoffs..

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10-24-2008 , 11:01 AM

#4588

Jeff W

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Quote:

Originally Posted by EPiPeN11

I went a bit more into depth later in the thread. Basically, Smith has had one year as the best WR in football and no others where he was 15th in DPAR.

He's 39th in DVOA this year.

I don't see much justification for him being one of the greatest WRs of all time.

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10-24-2008 , 11:31 AM

#4589

capone0

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Forgot all about FO, but it really backs up my Gannon Peak.

1998: 3rd DYAR/4th DVOA Rushing: 3rd/5th
1999: 6th DYAR/7th DVOA Rushing: 3rd/1st
2000: 2nd DYAR/3rd DVOA Rushing: 3rd/6th
2001: 1st DYAR/4th DVOA Rushing: 14th/14th

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10-24-2008 , 11:39 AM

#4590

capone0

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Chad's definitely better if you just look at FO in comparison to SS.

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10-24-2008 , 11:43 AM

#4591

Zimmer4141

Wet

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 33,715

The reason I like Steve Smith is that he is a threat to go deep on any play, probably the second best deep-ball threat of the past 10 years next to Moss, and can still be a reliable pass catcher, and is willing to go over the middle. Throw all that on top of the fact that the past 4-5 years he hasn't had a good #2 receiver and has been double-covered on basically every play.

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10-24-2008 , 11:47 AM

#4592

capone0

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He has had a good #2 WR, not the last 3 years but he did have a really good one and I'm pretty everyone knows who I'm talking about.

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10-24-2008 , 11:53 AM

#4593

SMIGLET

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steve smith was near the top of my list. imo theres no doubt hes above 85. the guy has never had a great qb, yet still puts up great numbers. hes the next best deep threat behind randy. also hes a great returner

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10-24-2008 , 11:55 AM

#4594

Jeff W

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Quote:

Originally Posted by capone0

FWIW I thought Gannon was a very strong pick. His rushing contribution is very underrated.

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10-24-2008 , 11:59 AM

#4595

Jeff W

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Quote:

Originally Posted by capone0

Chad's definitely better if you just look at FO in comparison to SS.

I don't think you can make judgments solely on individual stats for WRs, but I do think Steve Smith's numbers are solid evidence against the idea that he's a star talent as opposed to one of the innumerable players who had a great year in the midst of an otherwise nondescript career.

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10-24-2008 , 12:00 PM

#4596

SMIGLET

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeff W

IMO Smith is overrated and he went no lower than he should have. He was the best WR in football once (2005) and otherwise he's just been another guy. Last year he had less than 7 yards/target. Outside of 2005 he has never looked great through the lense of advanced statistics.

i dont remember if i said this in this thread or another, but i absolutely hate measuring receivers by yards/target or %caught/target. so much of that stat has to do with the qb throwing, how accurate the throws were, and the types of plays being called. the only thing its useful for imo is comparing wr/qb combinations against each other

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10-24-2008 , 12:09 PM

#4597

Steroid Boy

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neeeeeeeed moaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrr picks

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10-24-2008 , 12:10 PM

#4598

Jeff W

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Quote:

Originally Posted by SMIGLET

Team yard/attempt=5.8, Smith's Y/a was 6.8 iirc. Completion% of 58 vs. 56 for the team. I expect higher differentials for a WR who is supposedly the greatest of all time on a team with a dearth of receiving talent.

Of course, you can always find rationalizations for a position, but Steve Smith's needs a helluva lot of rationalizing to get from "Good WR" to "Top 10 WR of the last 20 years".

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10-24-2008 , 12:21 PM

#4599

Dudd

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Quote:

- Barry's offense scored more points the year after he left, despite having a much worse YPC and similar QB ratings. This goes with my whole "YPC doesn't tell the whole story."

Unless you think Barry was responsible for their turnover margin going from -4 his final season to +10 the next, I don't think this shows anything.

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10-24-2008 , 12:27 PM

#4600

SMIGLET

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Jeff W

hes obviously not the greatest of all time, and like i just said completion % is not a stat to measure wrs by. go pull up the % completion from all the #1 wrs in the league and compare the average to that of all the #2 wrs. the #2 wrs % will be higher

more plays go to the #1 wr, many forced throws etc.

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