NCAAF Rankings: Chaos Edition - Page 7 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

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10-08-2014 , 01:54 PM

#151

goofball

Beat Nate Silver

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 20,432

Quote:

Originally Posted by schu_22

Question, Nebraska moved up in Sagarin Predictor due to losing by 5 rather than the predicted 10.5

Did they also move up in your predicative rankings

Their rating increased slightly (0.736 to 0.741) but their rank stayed at 31. They're functionally the same as Tenn though. Nebraska is 0.7411, Tenn is 0.7414.

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10-08-2014 , 02:04 PM

#152

DannyOcean_

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 28,336

most fun modeling challenge for goofball

How accurate a model can you get without using any current year results?

acceptable parameters include previous years recruiting rankings, previous years results, returning players info, revenue, demographics, etc.

I'd bet you could get kinda close. Still pretty far off in many instances, but a decent majority of the top 25 still in the top 25. I'm wondering what kind of R^2 you might get with that. If I had the data and tons of free time, I'd do it myself.

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10-08-2014 , 02:06 PM

#153

DannyOcean_

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Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 28,336

Also, goofy, you need to get R. If you're spending 'hours and hours' running this stuff in excel because of processing time/running slow, bite the bullet and start learning R. It will save you tons of time in the long run and let you do way more cool stuff.

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10-08-2014 , 02:16 PM

#154

pwnsall

CFBBPC

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 66,161

For every 20 teams thought to be hot or playing well at the end of the year or gelling together 1 of them probably is and the rest are just variance. Or some other made up number.

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10-08-2014 , 02:20 PM

#155

DannyOcean_

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Sagarin conference ratings

CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN

1 SEC-WEST (A) = 89.82

2 PAC-12(SOUTH) (A) = 80.05

3 BIG 12 (A) = 79.39

4 SEC-EAST (A) = 79.20

5 PAC-12(NORTH) (A) = 77.26

6 BIG TEN-EAST (A) = 75.26

7 ACC-ATLANTIC (A) = 74.82

8 ACC-COASTAL (A) = 74.18

9 BIG TEN-WEST (A) = 73.90

SEC West absurdly strong compared to everyone else.
SEC East stronger than expected.
Everything else seems about right.

Quote

10-08-2014 , 02:22 PM

#156

goofball

Beat Nate Silver

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 20,432

Quote:

Originally Posted by DannyOcean_

R/other tools is definitely on my Horizon 2015 plan.

For the most part things aren't super slow, it was just a big detour this week to figure out how to test and then test to make sure 1. Bama etc. wasn't a patently absurd model failure.

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10-08-2014 , 02:38 PM

#157

AngerPush

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Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 32,322

Quote:

Originally Posted by dkgojackets

some serious selective memories going on. checking the schedule they had just one quality win in the last month (home vs 7-3 auburn) and in the other games were outgained and gave up 500 yards at home to troy, were outgained with 4 turnovers at home vs kentucky, then whatever happened vs chan gailey (lol him). hardly dominance

I love how you conveniently started with Troy and not the week before which was beating UF and Heisman Winner TT. 2 of the last 5 games were wins against top 15 teams by 12 and 25. UK actually ended up around 30th, as well.

The point is UGA was on a nice little run at the end. There was no "dominant" team that year.

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10-08-2014 , 02:46 PM

#158

dkgojackets

DKGOAT

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86,120

he said at the end of the season, the final third of it can pretty reasonably be considered the end. "nice little run" is fine and accurate but a far cry from "neutral field favorites over anybody". everyone remembers things as either the greatest or the worst in hindsight

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10-08-2014 , 03:28 PM

#159

AngerPush

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I have no problem with that description either.

There were about 10 teams that season that can make a similar claim as UGA in that if one smallish thing didn't happen then they would be playing for the title.

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10-08-2014 , 03:29 PM

#160

AngerPush

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And by smallish I mean beating LSU in the SECCG...haha. You know what I mean.

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10-08-2014 , 06:34 PM

#161

DeadMoneyWalking

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Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 32,623

UGA 2007 and OC 2001 are both good examples of a team that thought voters should excuse their flaws early in the season.

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10-08-2014 , 07:10 PM

#162

goofball

Beat Nate Silver

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 20,432

Idaho is the only team with 0% chance of bowl eligibility (0 in 10k simulations)

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10-08-2014 , 07:43 PM

#163

schu_22

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B1G West is the worst Ebola outbreak in history

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10-08-2014 , 07:57 PM

#164

BigPoppa

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Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 22,216

Cats make title game, entire anOSU two-deep declared ineligible, Cats in Rose Bowl, ez game.

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10-08-2014 , 09:24 PM

#165

DannyOcean_

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Quote:

Originally Posted by dkgojackets

I'm tired of the argument at this point, but this was a real conversation real people were having. I know you might think sagarin+box score is the only thing that matters, but go look up the 2p2 thread from 7 years ago if you don't believe me. Hell, there's a non UGA fan in this thread who has already said they were the best team in the country that year. Deny that happened if you want, i guess. It helped that UGA was the only power conference team in the country on a 6+ game winning streak at bowl time.

Quote

10-08-2014 , 09:53 PM

#166

BigPoppa

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Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 22,216

Typed up super long missive about LSU, Ole Miss, and how teams that should always be good can often spend decades being bad; got eated by computer.

Suffice it to say that firing a coach who repeatedly wins the division, often ends up in the Top Ten, and always goes to a decent bowl game is lolbad unless the reason involves multiple felonies.

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10-08-2014 , 11:59 PM

#167

AngerPush

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Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 32,322

I love how we have spent all week talking about UGA. ❤️ You guys.

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10-09-2014 , 01:30 AM

#168

mmbt0ne

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Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 22,077

Quote:

Originally Posted by goofball

Idaho is the only team with 0% chance of bowl eligibility (0 in 10k simulations)

Forget going bowling, how often is Georgia Southern going 10-2 in your model?

Quote

10-09-2014 , 03:23 AM

#169

goofball

Beat Nate Silver

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 20,432

Quote

10-09-2014 , 06:28 AM

#170

Str82thenuts

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 588

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2005

Baylor now TCU's biggest rival for sure. Used to be SMU but LOL. Stems originally from both schools being in Waco in the 1800s and TCU campus burned down supposedly started by Waco students.

You must be from Texas because I would say there is less than a.00001 percent chance that anyone outside the state would know that. Unless you are affiliated with either school or a Texan somebody wouldn't know that fact.

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10-09-2014 , 09:03 AM

#171

2005

Triple Crown

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 2,960

Quote:

Originally Posted by Str82thenuts

Yeah, I went to TCU

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10-09-2014 , 11:48 AM

#172

AngerPush

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Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 32,322

Quote:

Originally Posted by goofball

Bye - 0% cracks me up.

Great work but needs a tweak.

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10-09-2014 , 11:50 AM

#173

Nicholasp27

27th level thinker

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 85,634

Well you do have a 0% chance of winning during bye week...

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10-09-2014 , 12:06 PM

#174

goofball

Beat Nate Silver

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 20,432

Thanks

. Fix one thing and you break something else

Quote

10-09-2014 , 01:15 PM

#175

nath

the second coming of the second coming

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 69,078

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigPoppa

I grew up with LSU in the 80s and 90s; I know how bad it can get for a college team that supposedly "anybody can coach." I mean, Curley Hallman! Last seen being fired from Muscle Shoals, AL high school.

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