Perhaps I've undervalued Ohio State's Achivements...

Probably a dumb question, but does achievement ranking take into account MoV? Looks like it does

FSU 37 achievement is weird given that their two wins are Wake and Duke

Yes, it does so on a sliding scale and taking into account opponent strength. The way it works is I give each team a rating for each game. That rating reflects the rating such that their result in that game is the expected result.

I'll use the FSU question below to give an example:

Yes they only have two wins, but they also have some quality losses. Take their home loss to Miami (Fl). They lost by 4. If Miami (Fl) were to play a road game against team rated at 0.857 right now (NC State and Miss St are the closest to that rating) I'd have them expected to win by 4, so that's the rating I give FSU for that game.

Florida State lost at Boston College by 32. I'd have a team rating at 0.076 (think Rice/Texas State/GA Southern) as a 32 point underdog @Boston College, so that's their rating for that game.

When I aggregate across all their games I get an average achievement rating of 0.707. They are right below USF at 0.709 and WSU at 0.720.

WSU is a crazy case. Their last 4 weeks:

Won @Oregon by 23 (game rating of 0.980)
Lost @Cal by 34 (0.030)
Beat Colorado at home by 28 (0.980)
Lost @Arizona by 21 (0.215)

If you were to 4 for ncaa playoffs, who would it be if you had to use either achievement or power?

Welp Bama misses playoffs per noted genius Danny Kannell

The Baker Mayfield Memorial Strict Adherence to H2H Results Top 4:

Iowa
ISU
Okla
OSU

It's common sense you guys.

What the hell is that idiot even doing nowdays

Forced to choose I'd pick achievement. I know power to be a better predictor of future performance but at some point I'd prefer to reward on field outcomes.

In actuality I think the committee is doing fine at balancing power and achievement.

Hmmm I’d think Alabama and UGA would still be top 2

Idk, I wouldn't assume. Better ask Baker!

The EYE Test from watching a bit.

1-Bama
2-Georgia
3-ND
4-Clemson

5-Okla
6-Ohio State

Being in the top 6 right now is a key. Behind that will be tough to make the playoff unless crazy **** happens - and it could. Starting to look a lot like 2014. #2 & #3 gotta win a game or two throwing the ball. Haven't seen that yet - but they haven't had to. Gonna be a fun November

Predictions for tonight's top 4? My fantasy football league's consensus is Bama, Georgia, ND, tOSU

1. Georgia
2. Bama
3. ND
4. Clemson

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Notre Dame

I think those 3 are pretty locked in.

I'd have:

4. Ohio State
5. Clemson
6. Oklahoma
7. Penn State
8. Wisconsin
9. Miami
10. Oklahoma State
11. TCU

4-11 are all insanely close and all of those teams have enough big games left on the schedule that I think nitpicking where they're ranked right now is just an exercise in futility.

You forgot Washington

It's pretty rare for one loss from a Power 5 team to disqualify you from the playoff.

Gaining 230 yards against Arizona State will do it though.

But not losing to syracuse apparently!

Has there ever been a more authentic, non-fraudulent team than Miami? I mean, since the 2001 Hurricanes, of course.

Totally in agreement with your main point.

Though, again, I really see no reason to be considering Wisconsin yet. Sagarin Predictor has them 12th, Inpredictable 11th. Much easier schedule to-date than anyone else on this list. Yet they seem to be getting a boost from...somewhere.

The committee has Miami at no. 10 below 6 teams that have losses so lol you

Achievement, obviously. Or else what's the point of actually playing sports?

1. Uga
2. Bama
3. Notre Dame
4. Clemson
5. OU
6. tOsu

Committee top 6

El oh el

Notre Dame at 3 is questionable. Quality loss I guess though