bama, oregon, tcu, baylor seems like a certainty in that spot

It'll be aids if Baylor loses and FSU gets in as a 1-loss team

If Bama, Oregon and TCU all win, and FSU loses, won't the committee be inlclined to look at Ohio State over Baylor?

I would think so

I would expect the committee to have some (conscious or not) bias aginst 2 teams from the same conference when reasonable

LOLhio State getting in over a 1 loss XII champ is a traveshamockery, even ignoring that they are down to their 3rd team QB.

I wonder what you do wih ark as far as bowl games go. They are a 6 loss team but it wouldn't really be fair to match them up with another 6 loas team like Illinois or Pitt.

Also, relevant lines to top 4 seeding as Of Sunday night are

Oregon -13.5
Alabama -14
fl st -3.5
Wisconsin -4
Tcu -32.5

(Baylor has no line yet. Obv waiting on Petty news)

lol FSU only -3.5, what a juggernaut.

1. Bama
2. Oregon
3. FSU
4. TCU


I think Baylor gets in if they win though. I think the committee will drop OSU because of their QB situation.

I think it's just as likely that the committee will do something stupid and take the wrong 4th team which the BCS would have gotten right.

He did get bit by a snake in India.... Lol

Hmmm

So market thinks Barrett was worth like six points?

Not sure about that. Bet it all on tosu!

This. It's clear the committee (and everyone else in America) not only hates FSU and their thug players and scumbag coach, but on top of that Vegas and the rest of America knows what frauds they are this year.

They're undefeated and #3 right now, pretty much tells you the committee doesn't like them at all. If they lose they are 100% done. Not a conference champ, a bunch of close wins over garbage teams, and really bad PR? Yeah they ain't getting in.

Baylor is next in the pecking order behind TCU and Ohio State if additional slots become available.

It'd be Alabama, Oregon, TCU, Baylor, most likely in that order (this assumes both FSU and OSU lose).

The 1 loss TCU vs. 1 loss Ohio State debate is an interesting one. Having the extra conference title game and the brand name will help OSU, but TCU's loss is way, way better than OSU's. Assuming Baylor wins they'd technically be co-champs of the Big12 and have the tie-breaker over TCU, which makes them less of a real conference champ in a way.

I think I'd leap OSU over TCU. I don't think injuries should factor into the committee's rankings AT ALL, at the end of the season it's supposed to be based on the team's resume of wins and losses and on the field performance.

Politics and money.

If any way possible, no conference gets two in. 5 conferences, 4 slots. At least one unhappy camper misses out on a chance of a $22M payday for reaching the Final. They don't want 2. Not in the first year.

If any way possible, the "out" conference will be ACC or BigWeCan'tCount12, especially if their champion does not travel/pull television ratings well. Do you think the Sugar Bowl (Alabama #1) and ESPN would prefer TCU or OSU? If they rank Oregon #1, that means #4 goes to the Rose Bowl. OSU would be "tradition".

See how they rank Wisconsin this week. #8 or #9 means they want to give a boost to OSU if they win the Big10 championship game.

/cynicism

Assuming FSU loss and TCU/Baylor/tOSU win, if you all think they are putting BOTH TCU and Baylor above tOSU and leaving out the Buckeyes in the playoffs I have a bridge to sell you.

So I disagree with the consensus above. Ohio State does NOT need 2/4 of Baylor, TCU, FSU or Oregon to lose. They only NEED one of FSU/Oregon to lose.

Fairness will not be a criteria.

OSU has a shot in that scenario IF the QB looks really good

If he looks bad/mediocre then no

I'll book a 3-2 (in my favor) conditional bet that if TCU, Baylor and Ohio State all win, and two of the three make the playoffs, that OSU is the one left out.

If you give me 2-1 odds, I'll also bet that if Arizona and OSU both win and only one makes the playoffs, it's Arizona, not OSU

Not huge money, obviously not certain what the committee is going to do given that this is the first year, but I have faith

im ready to give the heartiest of LOLs when they just do what normal poles do and drop the teams who lose a few spots and keep the rest in order so SPARTY sneaks to 4 after baylor, fsu, and osu lose

Lol at that, that is hilarious.

I can't do that partial odds math. If I wager $100 on both (they are mutually exclusive I believe) what's my return?

KSU would almost certainly jump sparty in that spot for the 4th bid. Both teams would have 2 losses to good teams (Auburn, TCU, Oregon, Ohio State) but MSU has zero wins and KSU has @ Baylor, @ Oklahoma and @ West Virginia.

I don't think it would be close

Every team with non-zero CFP equity is playing one more game. Sparty is not among them.

Take a look again. That isn't ELO Chess anymore.