Let's get this party started! The more a green a team is the better its chance to win this week; red team are facing long odds.



I also updated my win probability tool with week one outcomes. UW gets way better (as does UTSA), OrSU gets way worse. Bama gets better too. Maybe we'll learn something about Oregon this week.

I built in some specific scenarios to this week's simulation (bowl eligibility, conference title, chances of going winless/undefeated) and added team by team results to the tool. Please let me know when you spot things that look egregious/wrong.

Forget models. Richt can't beat Spurrier.

All times Eastern. Not sure what to say about the Thursday and Friday games other than "Why?"

Sept. 5
Florida Atlantic at East Carolina, Fox Sports 1, 7:30
Winston-Salem (N.C.) State at UNC-Pembroke, CBS Sports Net, 8
Sacramento State at Arizona State, Pac-12, 10
Sept. 6
Central Florida at Florida International, CBS Sports Net, 8
Wake Forest at Boston College, ESPN2, 8

Sept. 7

12:00 PM Eastern Kentucky at No. 9 Louisville ESPN 3
12:00 PM No. 10 Florida at Miami (FL)
These two do not like each other and you can see why. Can Florida really mold themselves into an LSU-style winner only without the voodoo, and why would they want to? Not too long ago, I would have sworn Miami was about to get some NCAA penalties--and then they found out the investigators had gotten information that the school didn't want them to know or something. Not sure what happened next.

12:00 PM No. 13 Oklahoma State at UTSA FOX Sports 1
12:00 PM Southeastern Louisiana at No. 20 TCU FOX Sports 1
12:00 PM Tennessee Tech at No. 23 Wisconsin Big Ten Network
12:00 PM Miami (OH) at Kentucky ESPN 3
12:00 PM South Florida at Michigan State
Maybe South Florida was looking forward to Michigan State when they were soundly beaten by McNeese State. No, I can't imagine why either.

12:00 PM Norfolk State at Rutgers CBS Sports Network
12:00 PM Eastern Michigan at Penn State Big Ten Network
12:00 PM Houston at Temple ESPN 3
12:00 PM Cincinnati at Illinois
Pretty sure this is a highlight game, if for no other reason that it may bring MyTurn2Raise out of the woodwork and give us a chance to see Tommy Tuberville's latest demeanor.

12:00 PM Missouri State at Iowa Big Ten Network
12:00 PM Bowling Green at Kent State ESPN 3
12:00 PM Indiana State at Purdue Big Ten Network
12:21 PM Western Kentucky at Tennessee ESPN 3
12:30 PM South Carolina State at No. 8 Clemson ESPN 3
12:30 PM Middle Tennessee at North Carolina ESPN 3
1:00 PM Army at Ball State ESPN 3
1:30 PM Western Carolina at Virginia Tech ESPN 3
2:00 PM Maine at Massachusetts ESPN 3
2:00 PM Weber State at Utah Pac-12 Network
2:00 PM Chattanooga at Georgia State ESPN 3
3:00 PM Tennessee-Martin at No. 19 Boise State ESPN 3
3:00 PM New Hampshire at Central Michigan ESPN 3
3:30 PM San Diego State at No. 2 Ohio State
Maybe San Diego State was looking forward to Ohio State last week when they lost to ??????. Reason; they just plain don't like Ohio State.

3:30 PM No. 3 Oregon at Virginia
This is legit interesting--Virginia is not nearly as terrible as you expect. As such, this road game represents an unexpected level of risk for a team with Natty dreams for seemingly little payoff. I mean, I think in the final score they'll route them, but the first half could be good.

3:30 PM Toledo at Missouri
Let's calibrate Missouri against Florida by comparing their common opponent. It's quite possible Missouri will wind up looking better against Toledo, which could be misleading. Then again it's also possible Toledo plays with a chip on their shoulder. I suspect Mizzu's mannerism of having their QB stand *lackadaisically* in the pocket encourages that sort of thing.

3:30 PM Buffalo at Baylor FOX Sports 1
3:30 PM Alcorn State at Mississippi State ESPN 3
3:30 PM Utah State at Air Force CBS Sports Network
A clash of the options. Utah State went toe-to-toe with Utah last week, and Air Force always seems to bring decent quality and effort. Plus, a matchup like this may mean Needle comes in to tell us which version of the option these teams are actually running and why--always fascinating stuff.

3:30 PM South Alabama at Tulane
4:00 PM Old Dominion at Maryland
4:00 PM Idaho at Wyoming
4:30 PM No. 6 South Carolina at No. 5 Georgia
Steve Spurrier quote watch; I suspect there is a great line about Malcom Mitchel coming sometime this week. The long nightmare is over for that Georgia offensive lineman who'd tested positive for steroids for 3 years from a post-surgical prescription from high school. I was beginning to think he'd have to go to the NFL to suddenly pass one of those tests. Of course, now he may have to try to block Clowney, who not only wants to cost people like him some money, but evidently needs to dispel Matt Millen's conditioning concerns. Clemson sure managed a surprisingly fierce outside pass rush last week. Not a good omen, but perhaps it was a trap. This is a bigger game for Georgia right now as a loss likely puts them out of the national title hunt.

4:30 PM Duke at Memphis ESPN 3
5:00 PM Portland State at California Pac-12 Network
6:00 PM Southern Miss at No. 18 Nebraska Big Ten Network
It's been a long time since Southern Miss has won a game and this would be a great one to turn the tide. Pretty sure it's still Taylor Martinez at quarterback for Nebraska and I'm sure he's been trying to improve.

6:00 PM Syracuse at No. 22 Northwestern Big Ten Network
6:00 PM Navy at Indiana Big Ten Network
6:00 PM Richmond at North Carolina State ESPN 3
6:00 PM James Madison at Akron ESPN 3
6:30 PM Gardner-Webb at Marshall
6:30 PM Louisiana-Lafayette at Kansas State FOX Sports 1
Both are coming off disappointing week 1 losses. K-State will probably never schedule such a good OOC opponent again and Ulala has to be the first team shut out by a Big12 defense since Nebraska was there.

7:00 PM Sam Houston State at No. 7 Texas A&M ESPN 3
7:00 PM UAB at No. 12 LSU
This shouldn't be much of a game, but after getting dicked around by UAB Hospital, I'm going to enjoy watching this one and I hope they show lots of shots of UAB administration-types with sad and embarrassed face.

7:00 PM No. 15 Texas at Brigham Young
Another intriguing matchup. Haven't heard much about BYU coming into this season, but they'll be packed with 25 year-olds coming off LDS missions as usual and I thought they had a highly regarded quarterback who needed some seasoning last year. Texas actually struggled a bit early last week before putting their opponent away. They'd like to come out and crisply take care of business here.

7:00 PM West Virginia at No. 16 Oklahoma FOX
Maybe West Virginia was looking forward to Oklahoma last week when they struggled against William & Mary or Eton or whoever it was. At least this one would make sense. Oklahoma had an impressive debut last week.

7:00 PM Samford at Arkansas ESPN 3
7:00 PM Southeast Missouri State at Ole Miss ESPN 3
7:00 PM North Texas at Ohio ESPN 3
7:00 PM Colorado State at Tulsa CBS Sports Network
7:00 PM Prairie View A&M at Texas State ESPN 3
7:00 PM South Dakota at Kansas ESPN 3
7:00 PM Lamar at Louisiana Tech
7:00 PM Grambling State at Louisiana-Monroe ESPN 3
7:00 PM Stephen F. Austin at Texas Tech FOX Sports 1
7:00 PM Savannah State at Troy ESPN 3
7:00 PM Nicholls State at Western Michigan ESPN 3
7:30 PM Arkansas State at Auburn ESPN 3
This is not one to sleep on. Arkansas State was better than Auburn last year under Malzahn and now they come to Malzahn's new home. Many an Auburn fan tuned in to Arky St. games last year and whistfully watched "offense", so they probably know their players, too.

7:30 PM Austin Peay at Vanderbilt ESPN 3
8:00 PM No. 14 Notre Dame at No. 17 Michigan
I don't think I can do this game justice. Really not sure what Michigan will look like without Denard Robinson, and I would expect Notre Dame in year 3 of Brian Kelly to start having a good offense. Speaking of which, shouldn't Michigan have a decent defense by now? So, when they play how will we know which is living up to expectations?

8:00 PM Hawaii at No. 25 Oregon State Pac-12 Network
Maybe Oregon State was looking forward to Hawaii when they lost to Eastern Washington last week. Except it's a home game.

8:00 PM Central Arkansas at Colorado Pac-12 Network
8:00 PM Minnesota at New Mexico State
8:00 PM Montana State at Southern Methodist ESPN 3
8:00 PM New Mexico at UTEP
9:05 PM UC Davis at Nevada
10:00 PM Cal Poly at Fresno State ESPN 3
10:30 PM Washington State at No. 24 USC FOX Sports 1
Heard good things about Washington State from Auburn folks, and USC struggled early against Hawaii. Late nigh Kiffin-hating is a delightful vice, if you haven't tried it.

Is there no Pac12 thread this year? No Dids 'this week's games' write-ups for the PAC? Kind of disappointing as that thread is a pretty unique highbrow collection of westies who seem to find the sky a different color than you and I.

10:30 PM Arizona at UNLV CBS Sports Network
11:00 PM San Jose State at No. 4 Stanford

good stuff op

guess we aren't doing random top 25 thread anymore, possibly for the best

Alabama
Oregon
Florida State
JFF
LSU

tOSU
Clempson
Texass
Oklahoma State
Georgia

USCe
Stanford
Michigan
Florida
Notre Dame

Other teams

something like that anyway

Stanford/SJSU is supposed to be a better game than USC/Wazzu? I mean, neither SJSU or Wazzu are all that good, but the latter is at least a conference game.

Holliday,

I doubt many colleges wanted to schedule games against the NFL opener, so that's my guess as to why Thursday is such a desert.

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=322440024

UGA kicker still suspended from his BUI in July. notagoodlook

They're probably functionally the same. The power rating is the combined rating of the two teams, it doesn't speak to how close the game will be. Also, model is v high on Stanford.

Richt like 2-1000 vs. spurrier

Most boring week I can remember

At least Texas -6.5 is free money

Believe me, I know. Thankfully, Stanford's had a significant upgrade at QB since then. It just hardly seems like a game that is deserving of much national prominence, given that Stanford and SJSU don't have much in the way of a fanbase compared to either USC or Wazzu, and the line on the game still has SJSU as significant dogs.

I was wondering the same thing. I guess I'll start one.

New AP rankings out

1 Alabama (58) 1-0 1497 0
2 Oregon 1-0 1355 +1
3 Ohio State (1) 1-0 1330 −1
4 Clemson (1) 1-0 1304 +4
5 Stanford 0-0 1277 −1
6 South Carolina 1-0 1181 0
7 Texas A&M 1-0 1085 0
8 Louisville 1-0 1073 +1
9 LSU 1-0 971 +3
10 Florida State 1-0 953 +1
11 Georgia 0-1 894 −6
12 Florida 1-0 875 −2
13 Oklahoma State 1-0 780 0
14 Notre Dame 1-0 707 0
15 Texas 1-0 674 0
16 Oklahoma 1-0 612 0
17 Michigan 1-0 583 0
18 UCLA 1-0 387 +3
19 Northwestern 1-0 320 +3
20 Washington 1-0 315
21 Wisconsin 1-0 287 +2
22 Nebraska 1-0 219 −4
23 Baylor 1-0 150
24 TCU 0-1 148 −4
25 USC 1-0 135 −1

Most importantly:

Dropped out
Boise St. 19

Texas better be careful this week. SHSU is legit

No love for the Noles. Woulda thought that beating they put on Pitt would have got them a little bit of national credit since it was the only game to watch on Labor Day. Maybe people sent their votes in early?

no. pitt is just a terrible program and team.

They probably resented having to work Labor Day because of that game.

Dropped 4 spots after a win, that's how ugly that was

Shoulda dropped the rest of them. That defense is awful.

They got that guy from Wisconsin coaching so look for them to turn around soon!

its hilarious how espn thinks manziel is a toxic cancer