NCAA Football Week 10 Thread - Page 25 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

Two Plus Two Forums Sports and Games Sporting Events

NCAA Football Week 10 Thread

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 25 of 25

First

5 15 20 21 22 23 24 25

Last

Page 25 of 25

First

5 15 20 21 22 23 24 25

Last

11-03-2013 , 01:10 PM

#601

goofball

Beat Nate Silver

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 20,432

I think you guys are underestimating the frequency of low probability events, one of the classic blunders. I'll be refreshing my odds tool today/tomorrow but for a sneak preview:

LSU 80%, @Miss St 92%, Chatt 100%, @Auburn 80% means bama is 70% to finish the regular season undefeated. 30% comes through all the time, just ask a poker player. What's more, give them a 75% chance in the SEC title game and they're just a little better than 50/50 to come through unscathed.

Quote

11-03-2013 , 01:16 PM

#602

TomCollins

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 43,064

That inpredictable site is pretty cool, I like how it has win probabilities.

For regular season, it has 12 wins at:
66% for Oregon
65% for Alabama
51% for Baylor
73% for FSU
65% for Ohio State

Title game lines based on that site would be:
Oregon -19 vs. ASU (HFA included)
Ohio State -11 vs. MSU
Alabama -16 vs. Missouri
FSU -17 vs. Miami

So order would be:
FSU
Oregon
Alabama
Ohio State
Baylor

Quote

11-03-2013 , 01:41 PM

#603

Sly Caveat

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 8,635

Quote:

Originally Posted by goofball

I think your math is wrong there.

Quote

11-03-2013 , 01:55 PM

#604

TomCollins

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 43,064

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sly Caveat

I think your math is wrong there.

The correct math makes his point even better. I think he underestimates Alabama's chances in those games, but I'd say Bama is very close to 50-50 to run the table.

Quote

11-03-2013 , 02:44 PM

#605

Krayz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 47,277

Yeah your %'s come out to a 42% chance of going undefeated.

Quote

11-03-2013 , 02:58 PM

#606

goofball

Beat Nate Silver

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 20,432

It was illustrative math, note the 1 significant figures and use of the terms around. The point is if you take multiple 90% by 4 you see that people see to be way over estimating the chance that all of tOSU/Bama/FSU/OSU run the table.

Quote

11-03-2013 , 03:05 PM

#607

Cotton Hill

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 12,307

The top 4 teams are ranked opposite of their likehood of losing.

Alabama will have 3 games where you could reasonably seem them losing.
Oregon will have 2.
FSU and Ohio State like 1 rivalry game but the opponent blows.

Quote

11-03-2013 , 03:07 PM

#608

Krayz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 47,277

Alabama-FSU is obviously the best title game, right? Esp. since OSU and Oregon would be in the Rose Bowl.

Quote

11-03-2013 , 03:44 PM

#609

TomCollins

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 43,064

Quote:

Originally Posted by Krayz

Alabama-FSU is obviously the best title game, right? Esp. since OSU and Oregon would be in the Rose Bowl.

Just start playoffs this year. I love how Baylor doesn't even get considered since everyone knows they are gonna lose 2 of their next 5.

Quote

11-03-2013 , 03:53 PM

#610

goofball

Beat Nate Silver

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 20,432

You mean it's not impressive beating St Virginia's School for Girls by 75 points?

Quote

11-03-2013 , 04:09 PM

#611

iggymcfly

runs good at HORSE

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 26,044

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoldenBears

lol what is this post?

USC losing to UCLA in 2006?
USC losing to Oregon State in 2007?
Boise State losing to Nevada in 2011?
WVU losing to Pitt as 28 point favorites the last game of the season in 2007?

Stanford's elite, shut Oregon the **** down last year, and it's a road game
Utah's a solidly mediocre team that's already beaten Stanford
Arizona is 6-2, has a high powered offense and RichRod, and it's a road game
Oregon State is 6-3, it's a rivalry game, and has a pretty good offense and a great coach.

And they could get ASU in the Pac-12 title game which is currently #5 in Sagarin, and has the capacity to play well enough to beat good teams by 20-30 points, and also beat Wisconsin.

Oregon's too good to lose home games to joke teams. They'll be favored by 25+ against Utah and Oregon State. @Arizona and vs. Arizona State are technically "losable" I guess, but Ducks will still be 90% or better in each one.

Quote

Page 25 of 25

First

5 15 20 21 22 23 24 25

Last

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 25 of 25

First

5 15 20 21 22 23 24 25

Last