I think Embiid teams are the only ones they couldn't hang with IF fully healthy. I still want to see them go against the Nets because I think their trio of wing defenders could really cause problems for BRK but who knows.

I definitely put them below the top 3 teams afa Finals equity is concerned, but wasn't that the case at the start of the season ftmp? Granted Miami was replaced by Philly, but it still stands imo.

To those that were using my Dunc'd on subscription, it's probably going to shut off soon fyi. I cancelled it after their MVP awards last episode:

Danny - 1. Embiid, 2. Lebron, 3. Steph
Nate - 1. Lebron, 2. Kawhi, 3. Embiid, 4. Steph

Hope you're right, but I'm not feeling it.


This feels closer to accurate. Boston's current roster isn't ready to handle the New Embiid. If Brooklyn plays defense, Boston's cooked. Boston has a puncher's chance against Milwaukee where Stevens should have an edge on No-Adjustments Budenholzer.


Boston's ball movement/flow/spacing (Brown 10 assists; Tatum 9) was the best it's been all season. Walker looked like he had jump shot legs - which was encouraging, though I assume he'll sit the back-to-back tonight. Every player they put on the floor played with force at both ends. It would be nice if they blew out Detroit tonight.

C's have Tatum and Brown. 40% of a championship five. Always have hope the other pieces can be acquired or made to fit. This year looks same as ever though.

Philly still has to show they can beat Boston when the playoffs start. Brad has had their number the past couple series. Maybe Doc makes a difference if it gets to that point this season

Not sure I trust Philly at this point. They have had an absolute cupcake schedule that has produced one signature win, a 1 point home game vs. the Lakers, and a couple bad losses even with Embiid. The jury is still out on them imo.

I feel like the East is pretty wide open tbh as no team seems to have a case for dominating that division in the playoffs.

Klay only has 5, so you can add some more dashes between Steph and the field.

Steph is basically putting up identical numbers to his unanimous MVP year, while drawing more attention than any other player in the league. Him being 3rd or 4th isn't crazy. I'm assuming Joker was the next player on both lists?

tbh I think it's:

LeBron/Embiid
gap
Throw a towel over several players - Curry / Kawhi / Joker / Durant (if you ignore the number of games missed) / GA.

And the main reason for the top 2 out in front is team record, not necessarily that they are playing any better than the group behind.

The numbers look close, but not the same when you factor in things like relative TS and all the advanced metrics.

PER 25.5 vs. 31.5
BPM 7.6 vs 11.9
WS48 .210 vs. .318

So while it's true he's mirroring his MVP season except for steal rate, the entire league has just gotten that much better offensively. None of Steph's advanced metrics even rate in the top 10 let along top 3. Contrast that with Joker's

PER - 31.0, BPM 11.0, WS48 .291

Joker's worst stat is PER, where he's second, but he leads the leage in BPM, WS, WS48, VORP, RaptorWar, TPM, and crushes everyone in the average of all advanced metrics. I just don't think you can put Steph over him given all those metrics and their identicalish records.

You still need to factor in that Denver have been worse than expected.

If someone told you at the start of the season that Joker would be averaging 27/11/9 on great efficiency I'm sure you would have been thinking they would be fighting for the top seed in the West. But they've been disappointing overall.

If they were 20-6 Joker would be way out in front in the MVP race.

Steph's probably getting some recency bias as well.

35ppg on 57/53/95 splits over the last 8.

Even going back to 29th of December he's 31ppg on 51/46/92 splits.

Hasn't GSW been worse than expected as well? I get what you're saying though and that's why I'm cool with Embiid or Lebron, although it looks like LBJ sans AD is doodoo.

Most people had us around the playoff playin. Some even had us out of the playoffs. I think we are about where we should be. I had us with a ceiling of the 4th seed, floor of 10 (assuming Steph stays healthy). We know how we look without Steph.

I see our under/over at the start of the year was 37.5. I remember people talking about smashing the under on them. Though some of that may have been due to the Curry injury factor.

Denver was 44.5. Add in that Joker is playing significantly better than expected, they've been down.

This is a pretty small sample size for +/- stats, but the Warriors haven't looked that bad without Steph:

Per 100 Net Rating:
With Steph: +2.3
Without: -1.9

A lot of this is due to Steph playing disproportionately with Wiseman/Wiggins/Oubre, none of whom has been great and Draymond missing a lot of time at the beginning of the season.

For Jokic:
With: +5.5
Without: -1.2

Embiid is crushing here:

With: +11.8
Without: -5.1

Btw, the correct thing to do with respect to +/- stats isn't to look at the difference, but to mainly focus on the net rating with the player on the court, while considering the teammate quality. Denver with Jokic has been pretty good. The Warriors with Steph & Draymond have been pretty good too.

The Lakers with Lebron minus AD has been +5.0 or roughly as good the Nuggets with Jokic or the Warriors with Steph and Draymond. Last year, they were +7.2 with Lebron minus AD though, so this is a step-down.

Knicks -3 @ Washington appears to be a True MySpace Lock™

Bradley Beal is OUT - Rest

I see what you mean and tbh I never looked at the numbers, just the fact that they lost to Detroit and needed 3 OTs to beat the Thunder and barely beat the Bulls sans AD (crushed the Wolves though iirc).

I guess the close wins are also a testament to LBJ since I think they had to come back in all of those games as well.

They should rest AD for Sunday's game to test out that theory I think.

they just ranked a top 3 and top 4? really weird that they wouldn't give jokic a mention.

i'd probably have:

1. labron
2. embiid
3. jokic
4. curry
5. kawhi

if only jokic was averaging 1.4 more assists per game

I was more referring to last season where we were the worst team in the league.

As you mentioned Steph on/off is a bit situational. He was something more than -20 per 100 over the first 5 games, so had a fair bit of catching up since. They're over +10 per 100 in the last 10.

Basically they haven't yet worked out a way utilize Wiseman with Curry. In the 990 possessions they've been on court together they're -10.9 per 100. In 1,119 possessions he's off the court, they're +12.9.

vini,

Have you gotten any sweet Tinder action from your new profile headline?

I subscribed and cancelled recently. While it is the perfect podcast to fall asleep to, yes, that was not a compliment, Nate is just too arrogant and too inflexible with his analysis. Shocked he even had Embiid on the list.

My rankings would be:

1. Embiid
2. Lebron
3. Jokic
4. Curry
5. Giannis

this feels like a trap. i think beal is overrated.

I'd go:

1. Embiid
2. Jokic
3. Larbon
4. Curry
5. Kawhi

I'm not sure I can give it to Lebron for having one of his worst statistical seasons in a year where everyone's stats are way up. The Lakers are awesome because a) they've played the 28th most difficult schedule and b) their defense has been amazeballs.

I the b is only partially on him. He's the best player in the world, but this year others have just been better.