I'm lost in the moment, which occurs in the regular season. In the playoffs where Harden turns to an above-average player I'm less lost.

Why are his numbers so much worse in the playoffs? I'm generally curious.

Teams get to work out schemes of how to guard him in a seven game series. Coaches don't bother about that for one off games in the season. He's a unique player, so teams aren't going to completely change their defense for one game.

His game is exhausting, so as soon as the minutes go up he naturally fatigues.

Teams play playoff defense.

Refs let a little bit more go.

And I'm sure there is some choking in there.

Yeah that sounds right. Their offense is somewhat gimmicky and seems fairly easy to scheme for, or as much as you can against a talent like Harden.

And lol cinarocket Capela scored twice on Jokic you didn't watch the game.

I think the lol'n of PlayoffRockets doesn't properly acknowledge that they'd have titled last year if CP3 didn't go down

Conversation was about Harden.

And Harden was pretty terrible in all but Game 1 of the Rockets/Warriors series.

Last 6 games he shot 38.6% from the floor, 20.3% from 3s and had 35 assists to 30 TOs.

I think his drop off is pretty overstated and it's comparable to just general tougher playoff stuff that applies to everyone. I agree his unique style is especially fatiguing but it's not like his FT rate plummets


Still though they would have beat the best team of all time if their 2nd best player doesn't get hurt, you can't really call them and Harden easily schemable

Ya it's weird. Harden being less valuable in the playoffs just makes sense, defenses are tougher and more prepared, refs whistle gets tighter. Harden (and the Rockets) specifically, whose strategy is essentially only attempting layups/fts/3's, seems like he would be extremely exploitable in a 7 game series. So statistical decline makes sense. OTOH they were up 3-2 against the best team of all-time and had double digit leads at halftime in games 6 & 7 without Chris Paul. We love to talk about the impact guys like LeBron/Steph have on their teammates, how much credit should Harden get for the insane burden he takes on allowing his teammates to perform at such a high level so late in the season against such a tough opponent? Even if his stats don't match his regular season stats I do believe there's something there.

Also, the Rockets were just a really really good team last year. Even forgetting their offense for a moment, if you go back and watch their defensive scheme against GS they were just really well prepared and executed so well. The Warriors have, obviously, run good in certain moments throughout their run (Kyrie/Love injury, Kawhi injury/getting murdered by their assassin, Korver's game 3 corner 3 backrimming), but they have left behind a wake of all time great teams- 2016 OKC, 2017 Cavs, 2018 Rockets- that should have titled if it weren't for them.

The Harden dropoff is very real Thay3r. His WS48 the last 3 years:

Regular Season - .204, .244, .289
Playoffs - .106, .157, .163

That's over a full .1 worse in each year. That's worse than even CP2 levels of playoff production dropoff.

Geoff is spot-on imo. Their excellence in the WCF last year was more attributable to their defense being not only very good, but tailor-made to stop the Warriors... last year. In their losses GSW had ORtgs of 102, 102, and 106 vs 105, 106, and 127.

If Golden State had only been an average offense in those 3 losses the series would have been 4-1 Woyas.

Steph is a similar conversation. Take away his 2017 postseason and he has seen statistical decline in every single postseason of his career.

'12-'13 Reg: 21.3 PER, 58.9% TS, .180 WS/48
'12-'13 Post: 20.5 PER, 55.8% TS, .161 WS/48

'13-'14 Reg: 24.1 PER, 61.0% TS, .225 WS/48
'13-'14 Post: 18.8 PER, 59.9% TS, .131 WS/48

'14-'15 Reg: 28.0 PER, 63.8% TS, .288 WS/48
'14-'15 Post: 24.5 PER, 60.7% TS, .228 WS/48

'15-'16 Reg: 31.5 PER, 66.9% TS, .318 WS/48
'15-'16 Post: 22.3 PER, 60.3% TS, .152 WS/48

'16-'17 Reg: 24.6 PER, 62.4% TS, .229 WS/48
'16-'17 Post: 27.1 PER, 65.9% TS, .272 WS/48

'17-'18 Reg: 28.2 PER, 67.5% TS, .267 WS/48
'17-'18 Post: 22.3 PER, 59.0% TS, .182 WS/48

There's so many factors you have to consider. For starters, Steph has had a rough stretch of playoff injuries that have ranged from him being banged up to possibly playing through very severe injuries. I'm not sure if we have enough info to determine if that is just a part of his player profile due to his body/play type or if he's just running bad, but it at least should be noted that he hasn't been particularly healthy in the playoffs very much. Also, when you perform as well as Steph (or Harden) has in the regular season, it's just going to be really really hard to replicate that output against superior competition. But, also like Harden, it just kind of makes sense that Steph's individual value would take a slight hit when the scheming and opposing defenses get sounder. Steph has a great handle, but he's never had elite quickness off the bounce. He's a good passer, but he's also always been a little sloppy which is extrapolated in the playoffs. A HUGE % of his individual value comes from exposing leaks & holes in the opposing D. If you miss a rotation, miss a switch, or hell, are just lazy, Steph is gonna ****ing eat you alive. He's always on the move, always looking for a cut or a screen to capitalize on so he can get just the slightest open look. Those mistakes are less frequent in the playoffs, which means Steph's average shot will be slightly more difficult.

So what does all of that mean? Is Steph, like Harden, a worse player in the playoffs? When you think of the Warriors these past few postseasons, you remember Durant's greatness, you remember Iguodala always seeming to rise to the occasion. But how much credit should Steph's style get for that? Durant is Durant, but he has the freedom to be himself in his comfort zone because Steph can so easily switch styles and still produce. Is Andre Iguodala "clutch", or is he enabled by a great player? Maybe a little of both. I think both Harden & Steph have exploits that teams who scheme for them in a series can capitalize on. Which is why, gun to my head, I'm still taking Durant over both in a 7 game series against a great team. With that being said, I also think there are reasons for their statistical declines that aren't indictments of them as players.

Wow his WS/48 declines in the playoffs, how unique. Funny how you leave out his playoffs 4 years ago. I guess because he played phenomenal against the Warriors while being their entire offense

Steph this year:

37 ppg on 51% from 3 against bottom 10 defenses
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/st...tom_10_Defense

22 ppg on 40% from 3 against top 10 defenses
https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/st...Top_10_Defense

basically confirms what Geoff was saying earlier, if you play lazy/bad defense against him you are going to get killed, but good defensive team can contain him

I'm expecting a decline, but one that drastic? The reason I only included the last 3 years was because that's when he started this multiple MVP run.

I can't think of a superstar player who's decline in the playoffs has been as great. Take Steph who, even with the injury year, has not declined nearly as much.

There defense was as good as I've seen against the Warriors (Cleveland was good when they chipped, but I felt that Cleveland got away with a lot vs Houston that just played great defense).

Yeah, Houston did well in the close games. They won Game 4 and 5 by a combined 7 points. Could have easily been the other way and, like you said, 4-1 Woyas.

I don't know the answers here, but you pose some great theories. I don't think it's a stretch to say that both teams have underperformed during the playoffs respective to their regular-season heights, which is why GOAT is still the GOAT.

btw I have a couple other theories that may or may not be valid, and it's that a) players who tend to rely more on the mid-range are more impervious to huge statistical dropoffs, and perhaps more importantly b) offensive players of size suffer less in the postseason.

I think there more truth to b. In the playoffs teams will generally cross-match to get the best (and usually longest) players onto your stars to an extreme. This is much harder to do with large players because they are generally facing those guys all year long.

Except Steph has declined more than Harden? Especially if we're looking at selective 3 year stretches

I just think you're super overvaluing Harden being a unique case. Unless you're legoat your WS/48 is going to look a lot worse against better teams that are zoned in. Steph, Brow, Katie, etc. all either have similar or worse ws/48 dropoffs

RWB has become quite clearly the 3rd best player at best on a team fighting for home court advantage in the playoffs. Trolling him for his fraudulence isn't nearly as funny as it used to be the years before

Yeah, that honor belongs to Donovan Mitchell this year.

Trolling Westbrook will always be funny.

Steph's been hurt for the playoffs tho

many greats decline heavily in the playoffs; those that don't are typically all time greats.

Towns just fisting Nerlens' a**hole this game omg

6 minutes 5/5, 5 rebounds.

vs Adams, 3 minutes, 0/2 3 fouls

Welcome back Waiters