Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenBears
The NBA Futures idea is so much better than everything else it's crazy.
Would create tons of drama and storylines, not only greatly reduces the incentive to tank but actually frequently INCREASES the incentive for bad teams to win games (If the Bulls own the Mavs pick and the Mavs own the Bulls pick, then when they play they're both greatly incentivized to beat the other team).
Also levers up the importance of smart front offices with good analytics
This is definitely interesting, but I don't think it reduces tanking as much as a flatter lottery would.
1) It only incentivizes you to win vs one other team whose pick you own, which is only 2-4 games/season.
2) It theoretically means you care less about tanking in a particular year, because you don't own your own pick, so you don't care about trying to lose. But that would only be true if a team only cared about that year and that year alone.
Many tanking teams are tanking for several years, until they accumulate enough assets, e.g. Philly Process. In that case, teams would still want to tank, because they would then get to choose the team for the following year where they are most likely to get the most ping-pong balls. There's still massive incentive to tank, when it can increase your odds from say 2.8% for the 8th worst team vs 25% for the worst team.
3) That 25% is the massive incentive for tanking, even under this Futures proposal. A flat proposal like the one I mentioned where the bottom 8 teams all get 10%, drastically lowers the incentive to tank, to a much greater extent.
The "downside" would be that it does not help the truly worst teams as much, but imo all 8 worst teams are bad enough that they are "worthy" of the help of a high draft pick, and there's no need to truly offer the very worst team such an incentive vs the 2nd-8th worst teams, when the cost is the massive tanking that we've been seeing.