Fact or Fiction: Dallas would have been better off trading Wright for Vasquez straight up

Yeah the "a 30% three is the best offense evar" posts are always so embarrassingly bad.

I was shocked that wasn't part of your original statement and knew it was only a matter of time before that was dropped, it is also an extremely stupid hypothetical. like seriously clownshoes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8ys8-sF1NU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzBmQMyYDBk

show work?

The opportunity for an o-rebound would have to worth quite a bit to make up for the fairly low % relative to most shooters. And given he'd be one of their best o-rebounders, then I fail to see how that math works.

I mean I guess if you're just assuming they never turn it over, then yeah, I see your point. But that renders the thought exercise pointless. A Josh Smith 30% corner 3 is merely "OK", like Thayer originally stated. It's coming in the context of their normal offense. So sometimes they'll get good 3s, sometimes they'll get dunks, sometimes they'll get Harden to the line, sometimes they'll turn it over, and sometimes a JSmoove corner 3. Which will usually be open-ish because lol josh smith. And he'll reward them with an OK 30% or whatever.

Maybe the Mavs can still flip Rondo to the lolkings or something.

Rondo for B-MAC, Landry and all the firsts.

Bowen was def a scumbag on the court.

Last night was the first time I felt like Kerr got outcoached. They looked unprepared for the hard doubles and overplays from the clips, although that is how they have defended Curry for a while now so idk why that would have caught them off guard. Also had no answer schematically or counters. Some of that is on the players though; played pretty passively in terms of looking for shots. Kept trying to move the ball when the Clippers were basically standing in the passing lanes-- presumably because they realized most of the Woyas won't shoot unless wide open. I'd have liked to see more of the high post dribble handoff stuff using lee as the screener to counter the doubles. Or just scrapping it and letting Curry play 1v1 more.

Halfcourt d was good, rebounding shaky(expected). Felt like most of the Clippers dmg was off transition. Paul had some individually brilliant plays in the halfcourt but they didn't get many good looks imo. I would also never double Blake in the post

Yeah I'm just not seeing this. The 30% is assuming there is no turnover getting him the ball? If that's the case, well duh ofc

And I don't understand the hate for Bruce Bowen. Sure he had some dirtiness to him, but imo he's not much different than dirty Bogues except for the fact that he tried to come off as a choirboy on the court. I accepted it as part of his schtick and thought it was part of what made him awesome. His D was really fun to watch.

POKEROMGLOL,

Rondo is short, can't shoot, will not "learn" to shoot suddenly in his eighth year, and isn't great at any other aspect of basketball.

Yes, he is better at defense than Jameer. And probably better overall. But Brandan Wright is far better than Greg Smith.

You talk about the team "standing around" and not knowing how to play with Rondo yet, as if when they "learn" to play with a slow, short non-shooter everything will be ok, or BETTER!, than before.

It won't. The Mavs will finish no higher than 8th, and will not have moved the needle wrt short-term equity, while sacrificing a non-neglible amount of long-term equity.

@bolded, yeah I'm wondering why they even need much of a pick when Bogut isn't on the court. A Steph/Bogut pnr is awesome because the usually slower big has further to rotate, but it seems easier to cover with Draymond being the screener and usually having a quicker guy on him.

Steph has gotten to the point where he can finish decently near the rim, so why not just spread things out and go 1v1? Defenders have to stay up on him more than any other player ITL, and he should be able to blow by just about anyone for a pretty high percentage shot or a higher percentage pass.

Seems like the extra bodies in that mix just clog things up.

anyone want the field vs texas to win the title at -400?

iirc it's ~25% to oreb a corner 3, maybe ~20% with the PF shooting.

i don't think TOs should be included in this exercise-- clearly you are going to be running offense conceptually, the point is simply that you don't have to do anything fancy to get this shot, we're looking at whetehr the shot is good basically from the point of josh smith catching it wide open in the corner. IF the offense is run, harden penetrates and gets doubled, dwight catches it in the post and gets doubled, whatever you tried fluidly to get josh the open shot, and then it's option C-- it would be an elite option C

the problem of course is that in theory having josh stand in the corner is a bad decision because of o rebounding and he's probably better cutting to the basket or something. but you're never going to run a play for this to happen, you run a play to get 1.5 ppp, when the third or fourth thing happens and you still get 1.1 ppp, well that's pretty good

Who thinks that, it was incredibly awful to watch.

For the record Josh Smith is shooting 57% from the corner 3 this season

Sealight,

My $400 to your $50 against OKC championship.

QTB.

Why the hell not booked.

gl mang

back the truck up and answer the question, stop talking in circles. you literally started SHOWING YOUR WORK WITH A MADE UP NUMBER, you get asked to show your work and you dont even google, you just start with "iirc its ~25% to oreb a corner 3"

http://courtvisionanalytics.com/where-do-rebounds-go/

the link above doesn't matter because I never need to defend Josh Smith, I know he is only going to be 30% on his 3pt attempt. I will always have all 5 of my guys crashing the glass and getting the rebound. Furthermore, I'll be able to figure out using previous shots where Josh's corner 3 miss is likely to go and since I've got 5 guys compared to your 4, I'll take that all day long

either rescind it or show your work. How about this? I'll never foul Josh on his 3pt attempt and I'll gamble that my offense plus my 5/4 advantage going for the offensive rebound when smith misses will ensure that my team never loses. It'll always be 5/4 because I'll never need to defend Josh Smith.

I'll run every single offensive play at Josh Smith, who will either foul out and you'll cease scoring because you're only offensive play is the Josh Smith 30% 3 or he will just be terribad on defense and not foul and we run circles around him and my team will score like 1.25 ppp

http://courtvisionanalytics.com/where-do-rebounds-go/

How are the Bulls going to afford Jimmy Butler's max at the end of the year? Looks like he'd put them at about 82 million, and if memory serves Chicago already paid luxury taxes in 2012-13 and 2013-14. One more trip of the luxury tax and they're in repeater territory, meaning it'll cost closer to 30M next year to keep Jimmy if my math is correct.

I think he's worth it since we have a year until the cap goes nuts, but do the Bulls?

the link above doesn't matter because I never need to defend Josh Smith, I know he is only going to be 30% on his 3pt attempt. I will always have all 5 of my guys crashing the glass and going for the rebound. Furthermore, I'll be able to figure out using previous shots 3pt shots where Josh's corner 3 miss is likely to go and since I've got 5 guys compared to your 4, I'll take that all day long.

here is another link about corner 3s and OREB; http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/web...point_rebounds

but it doesn't matter, I'll never have my team defend Smith. I'll take the 5/4 offensive rebound opportunity and let him chuck at 30% the whole game while attacking him every play on offense until he fouls out or plays terribad D at which point we will score like 1.25 ppp

Hinkie, if he is the G.O.A.T. is gonna hit BUTLER with a 4yr MAX deal with the MAX trade kicker (15%?) with an ETO and PO in years 3/4

How about this? I'll take my PF and C, put them in one corner. I'll take my PG,SG,SF and put them in the other corner. I won't even let Josh Smith into either corner and every trip down the court will be an offensive turnover because you can't get off that Josh Smith 30% 3

Of course, you could start to cherry pick like the Kings owner suggests might work but with Josh Smith and gamble that your .9 ppp could beat my team playing 5/4 on offense ever possession.

hypotheticals ftw

one does not correlate with other.

this post, in structure, feels like i thought i would have had ~5 years ago

but is super embarrassing for what should be very obvious reasons.