NBA Season Thread 2013-14
12-19-2013
, 01:42 PM
12-19-2013
, 01:48 PM
Quote:
Team drtg is an actual valuable statistic. Individual drtg is not. If we had "team drtg with the player on the court" readily available (is there an easy way to access this?) that'd be fine to use, but individual drtg is just trash afaik, for the reasons Dean mentions, and should probably be given 0 weight
12-19-2013
, 01:50 PM
12-19-2013
, 01:52 PM
12-19-2013
, 01:52 PM
12-19-2013
, 01:53 PM
12-19-2013
, 01:53 PM
12-19-2013
, 01:53 PM
12-19-2013
, 02:00 PM
Quote:
With that particular line up, I think you're looking at a situation where you could swing a shocking # of games depending on the coach and organization. NBA basketball (heck, any basketball) is about putting defenses into suboptimal situations where they can't easily defend the shots you want to take, such that you can take shots at an efficiency higher than the other team (well, there's rebounding and turnovers too, but this is a good start).
There are several ways to do this. The easiest is to have a player who can't be prevented from taking the shots he (or she) wants to take. Dirk Nowitzki is unguardable by one person. Alternatively, you can have a player who can easily take an excellent shot if not very closely guarded, but this player can also easily create separation from a defender that's too close. Chris Paul, Steph Curry, and so on. You can also have a player that, even when guarded, can simply get the ball to a point on the court that they have a good shot unless other players assist in defending, and have said player be a sufficiently good passer that they can easily then pass the ball to another point in the court where the defense is now in suboptimal position. Shaq, Lebron, Chris Paul, you get the point.
Lastly, there are ways of implementing systems in which player movements (screening on and off the ball, cutting to the hoop, rotating around the baseline or perimeter) are orchestrated in such a way that it's difficult for the defense to consistently prevent good shot opportunities. One split second too late, a few feet to the right or left, and the possession is lost (Queue Al Pacino's "a game of inches". Inspirational stuff for this middling squad).
What you have with this team is a deep necessity for this last approach. You'll notice that many of those players have found success playing opposite star players or with excellent coaches. Lacking stars, you absolutely must be able to execute impeccably, because none of the players is sufficiently good on offense to consistently create good looks for himself, or even for another teammate with only one pass.
Compare the current Celtics with the current Jazz to see how some teams succeed and some teams fail to utilize a roster without top level talent. You can see also Mike Brown's apparently successful tenure as a coach for Lebron with his abject failure at every spot since. Lebron is a player that doesn't require a particularly incisive coach, because optimizing his talents (or at least approaching optimal use) is blindingly obvious: play him a lot of minutes and give him the ball.
The team you propose would have the ability to space the court well, but what could they do with that? Omer Asik isn't (as far as I'm aware) a good PnR big. Ryan Anderson is a pick 'n pop guy, which is fine, but means that Asik's defender can commit to assisting in that defense. Butler and Kiwi are both good shooters and respectable at dribble penetration, particularly when defenders have been coaxed out of position. You have the makings of a strong offense, but you'd need to be able to institute a system and practice it effectively, because we're talking about a lot of dribbles and passes to create the shots you want - all opportunities for turnovers, or lesser mistakes that would eliminate the gains you'd hope for (a pass a split second too late, inches too high, requires the curling ball handler to hesitate for a moment...)
There are several ways to do this. The easiest is to have a player who can't be prevented from taking the shots he (or she) wants to take. Dirk Nowitzki is unguardable by one person. Alternatively, you can have a player who can easily take an excellent shot if not very closely guarded, but this player can also easily create separation from a defender that's too close. Chris Paul, Steph Curry, and so on. You can also have a player that, even when guarded, can simply get the ball to a point on the court that they have a good shot unless other players assist in defending, and have said player be a sufficiently good passer that they can easily then pass the ball to another point in the court where the defense is now in suboptimal position. Shaq, Lebron, Chris Paul, you get the point.
Lastly, there are ways of implementing systems in which player movements (screening on and off the ball, cutting to the hoop, rotating around the baseline or perimeter) are orchestrated in such a way that it's difficult for the defense to consistently prevent good shot opportunities. One split second too late, a few feet to the right or left, and the possession is lost (Queue Al Pacino's "a game of inches". Inspirational stuff for this middling squad).
What you have with this team is a deep necessity for this last approach. You'll notice that many of those players have found success playing opposite star players or with excellent coaches. Lacking stars, you absolutely must be able to execute impeccably, because none of the players is sufficiently good on offense to consistently create good looks for himself, or even for another teammate with only one pass.
Compare the current Celtics with the current Jazz to see how some teams succeed and some teams fail to utilize a roster without top level talent. You can see also Mike Brown's apparently successful tenure as a coach for Lebron with his abject failure at every spot since. Lebron is a player that doesn't require a particularly incisive coach, because optimizing his talents (or at least approaching optimal use) is blindingly obvious: play him a lot of minutes and give him the ball.
The team you propose would have the ability to space the court well, but what could they do with that? Omer Asik isn't (as far as I'm aware) a good PnR big. Ryan Anderson is a pick 'n pop guy, which is fine, but means that Asik's defender can commit to assisting in that defense. Butler and Kiwi are both good shooters and respectable at dribble penetration, particularly when defenders have been coaxed out of position. You have the makings of a strong offense, but you'd need to be able to institute a system and practice it effectively, because we're talking about a lot of dribbles and passes to create the shots you want - all opportunities for turnovers, or lesser mistakes that would eliminate the gains you'd hope for (a pass a split second too late, inches too high, requires the curling ball handler to hesitate for a moment...)
Basically that team would need a straw to stir the drink more than anything else. I have a hard time seeing them as a better than league average offense.
12-19-2013
, 02:01 PM
12-19-2013
, 02:02 PM
12-19-2013
, 02:05 PM
Looking at Detroit's most common lineups is pretty interesting...
Lineup 3 without Drummond has a 110 drtg while Lineup 5 without Jennings has a 98 drtg.
There is still a lot of noise and variance, but my point is that you guys are making huge errors by forming opinions based on stuff like "they have the 20th drtg so drummond must be bad on defense"
Lineup 3 without Drummond has a 110 drtg while Lineup 5 without Jennings has a 98 drtg.
There is still a lot of noise and variance, but my point is that you guys are making huge errors by forming opinions based on stuff like "they have the 20th drtg so drummond must be bad on defense"
12-19-2013
, 02:07 PM
12-19-2013
, 02:07 PM