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NBA Season Thread 2013-14 NBA Season Thread 2013-14

01-23-2014 , 05:31 PM
Lol Thayer slappies Gallo is dead.
01-23-2014 , 05:34 PM
01-23-2014 , 05:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Das Boot
I think the RAPM values seth linked yesterday are much better than the watered-down xRAPM published at the old site. From there: RAPM (using previous seasons as a prior) has Hibbert 1.5 points better. Non-prior-informed RAPM, for just this season, has Hibbert 2.8 points better. IPV (NPI RAPM plus "a robust machine learning based SPM metric (“FORPM”) as a prior") has Hibbert .7 points better. To me, this, in conjunction with the sanity test of "why is this true?" -- he's a hyperultraelite defensive centerpiece of an insanely good defense -- means a lot more than "18/13 vs. 12/8" in terms of a statistical comparison.

Then you add on his dominant playoffs last season, and the case for Hibbert is fairly easy and correct.
das boot, i worked for the people at talkingpracticeblog for a summer (so did another person here but i wont mention them; its just bothersome that they get so much burn here given how bad they are in my experience.) they are known scammers/thiefs (ex-convicts in fact). albeit one person of their group is a person who *may* have a statistics degree (tho most people from 2p2 including thremp outed this as fraudulent as well.) will let you figure out who they are.

basically the numbers they publish mean ****-all. jeremias is actually actively tweaking the inputs of xRAPM and last years priors are by far the closest thing to anything anybody has called good in terms of sortability with defense (dwight crushes hibbert here.)

in addition, david mok, who does ASPM has dwight as way better than hibbert iirc. use those numbers as well as counterpoint data. not talking practice.
01-23-2014 , 05:48 PM
also the "sanity check" is a self fulfilling prophecy here. i mean wtf thats clearly entirely mutually exclusive with your "hyperultraelite defensive centerpiece" claim.

ya'll are massively wrong on this one. you're getting fps'y and overthinking the fact that dwight was a massive bitch in the offseason/ in many recent instances.

take your licks, admit you were wrong, and roll over. no big deal, we all make mistakes.
01-23-2014 , 05:52 PM
I never make mistakes.

just happy little accidents.

Oh yeah almost forgot

Spoiler:
LOL Knicks
01-23-2014 , 05:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mburke05
das boot, i worked for the people at talkingpracticeblog for a summer (so did another person here but i wont mention them; its just bothersome that they get so much burn here given how bad they are in my experience.) they are known scammers/thiefs (ex-convicts in fact). albeit one person of their group is a person who *may* have a statistics degree (tho most people from 2p2 including thremp outed this as fraudulent as well.) will let you figure out who they are.

basically the numbers they publish mean ****-all. jeremias is actually actively tweaking the inputs of xRAPM and last years priors are by far the closest thing to anything anybody has called good in terms of sortability with defense (dwight crushes hibbert here.)

in addition, david mok, who does ASPM has dwight as way better than hibbert iirc. use those numbers as well as counterpoint data. not talking practice.
Thanks for the info, had no idea they were that unreliable. Probably true re: self-fulfilling prophecy. Still not on board with HGH > Hibbert for a playoff series, but all useful stuff to consider obv and will revise my certainty downward.
01-23-2014 , 06:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobboFitos
for Amare (21.6, 23.4), THJR (R1 1.2m, 1.2m...), Shump (R3, 1.7m/2.6m), the only 1st the Knacks can trade (the 2016 I think, was talked about in the Lowry deal), Beno (vet min)
they can get the 2018 pick unprotected, a 2015 swap (valuable if linked to clippers pick) and a 2017 swap (limited value with nets swap in place).

they should get all of the above because the knicks know no restraint in dealing for stars. i would very much like that deal

Quote:
Originally Posted by Omniheart
enjoy orange julius randle
ainge would never take randle, he never has drafted somebody who i didn't want with a good 1st rounder

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wooders0n
Look, the Celtics are in better shape than the Knicks but they're still in a really bad position. Have fun building around Kelly and Noah Vonleh.
if they don't get a top 3 pick they are so getting marcus smart
01-23-2014 , 06:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wooders0n
Celtics are in fine shape for the long term but they're 5+ years away from winning a playoff series. One or two bad draft picks and it will be longer.
i mean ship rondo for lil zeke, make a play for hayward, and re-sign hump and they could very well win a playoff series next year even w/o boxing a top 3 pick. good coaches go a long way and the east is in such a sorry state that the bar to clear for "good enough to win a playoff series" is ridiculously low
01-23-2014 , 06:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mburke05
das boot, i worked for the people at talkingpracticeblog for a summer (so did another person here but i wont mention them; its just bothersome that they get so much burn here given how bad they are in my experience.) they are known scammers/thiefs (ex-convicts in fact). albeit one person of their group is a person who *may* have a statistics degree (tho most people from 2p2 including thremp outed this as fraudulent as well.) will let you figure out who they are.

basically the numbers they publish mean ****-all. jeremias is actually actively tweaking the inputs of xRAPM and last years priors are by far the closest thing to anything anybody has called good in terms of sortability with defense (dwight crushes hibbert here.)

in addition, david mok, who does ASPM has dwight as way better than hibbert iirc. use those numbers as well as counterpoint data. not talking practice.
Wait, they're the same group? I did not know that.
01-23-2014 , 06:10 PM
T.hr..emp

I'm searching for that outing right now and stumbling across lots of posts like these.
01-23-2014 , 06:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by mburke05
also the "sanity check" is a self fulfilling prophecy here. i mean wtf thats clearly entirely mutually exclusive with your "hyperultraelite defensive centerpiece" claim.

ya'll are massively wrong on this one. you're getting fps'y and overthinking the fact that dwight was a massive bitch in the offseason/ in many recent instances.

take your licks, admit you were wrong, and roll over. no big deal, we all make mistakes.
lol at "was"
01-23-2014 , 06:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wooders0n
lol at "was"
this

i will prop bet all of the money in the world that dwight continues to be a massive bitch going forward
01-23-2014 , 06:13 PM
What do a bunch of scammers stand to gain by putting out a wrong RAPM list? Seems like a weird group of people to be targeting with a scam.

Anyway, lol at sorting by RAPM too. Hibbs is still more valuable than Dwight if the goal is to win an NBA championship.
01-23-2014 , 06:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wooders0n
What do a bunch of scammers stand to gain by putting out a wrong RAPM list? Seems like a weird group of people to be targeting with a scam.

Anyway, lol at sorting by RAPM too. Hibbs is still more valuable than Dwight if the goal is to win an NBA championship.
also agree with this post. i'm sure their list is just as legit as anybody else's list. let's not fall into old habits of having an advanced catchall stat decathlon and see who wins 6/10 stats. sometimes you gotta use good old fashioned LOGIC to discern the truth
01-23-2014 , 06:21 PM
Also,

This discussion is underrating BIG CUZ. Imagine if he had Harden and Morey building a sick team around him instead of the kangz kanging.
01-23-2014 , 06:21 PM
Really tho, are the Rox personnel really that bad defensively?

I know Harden is super lol and I'm not sure about TJones (although DWS likes him plenty)

but Parsons/Howard/Bev are all +defenders, why aren't they better on that end?
01-23-2014 , 06:23 PM
I think the easiest answer to that question is that Harden is even beyond super lol. They also play Aaron Brooks.
01-23-2014 , 06:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by darO
Really tho, are the Rox personnel really that bad defensively?

I know Harden is super lol and I'm not sure about TJones (although DWS likes him plenty)

but Parsons/Howard/Bev are all +defenders, why aren't they better on that end?
of course DWS likes him, he gets blocks and boards.

...you catch my thoughts on DAJ?
01-23-2014 , 06:27 PM
knicks losing bargs indefinitely. torn ligament in his left bow.
01-23-2014 , 06:30 PM
Bargs out indefinitely with torn elbow ligament.

...PONY
01-23-2014 , 06:32 PM
Pero Antic out 2-4 with broken ankle, Bobbo's dream of more Mike Scott suddenly in play.
01-23-2014 , 06:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kidcolin
"Excuses will be made. "

-darO



One thing to remember with the $TAT$ is that they don't say that Hibbert is better than Dwight, they say that Hibbert's production/results/value for the Pacers has been better than Dwight's on the Rockets. A pretty important distinction to keep in mind when viewing the $TAT$ and assessing player value as well as some of the other obvious flaws in the $TAT$


With that said, I've been on the TeamHibber train for a long time and the lolPythagHoward wagon even longer
01-23-2014 , 06:33 PM
seadood with a fistpump. knicks are done. no amare. no barg. injured chandler. FREE JEREMY TYLER
01-23-2014 , 06:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kidcolin
Minnesotonians are supposed to be a calm and friendly people. Minnesotam is one of the madder SEers around.
Did his last post upset you?
01-23-2014 , 06:35 PM


ETA: New Lowe.

      
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