Quote:
Originally Posted by Das Boot
Dean: good post. I agree that +5 to +6 seems reasonable for Dame offensively, and 3 points seems like a reasonable estimation for the defensive gap. I don't think it's overly pessimistic to project MCW as a +2 to +3 player offensively (or somewhere thereabouts), which is still a very very good offensive PG.
So then it's fit, where I think Lillard has (thus far) crushed in Portland, and I think they'd be worse off without his passing and shooting. (I think the passing merits elaboration: MCW has a sizable assist lead, but Lillard averages the same # of passes/game with fewer possessions and dramatically fewer turnovers.) Lillard spaces, he moves the ball well and unselfishly, and he moves well off the ball in a very fluid offensive system.
I think the beginning of the season allows you to justify some pretty large estimates of the gap between that offense going forward with Lillard and that offense going forward with MCW. Basically, to some extent, I'm betting on smart passing/spacing/shooting carrying some multiplier effect. (Would be curious to hear any Portland fans' thoughts about this assessment.)
(The second paragraph is referencing the second paragraph of my post, which I edited in and you may or may not have seen, judging from your post.)
so i just watched some dame highlights on youtube and i see what you're saying. this is a good post. it does make sense that analytics + elite shooting + elite passing would have great synergy and it helps explain why portland is so much better than expected.
also it makes sense to give dame a lot of credit for playing a key role in elevating portland in just his 2nd year.
i buy that he has equity to become an offensive superstud, he's only 23. +5-6 understates his upside, it extends above that. 4. DAME
edit- how mad would ppl get at 3. Dame w/ Rustle hurt?
Last edited by TheDean1; 01-04-2014 at 01:46 AM.