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NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 NBA Season Thread 2009-2010

05-06-2010 , 01:45 PM
C-Vig hasn't been around enough since the game 1 loss, I wanna lol Hawks at him more.
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 01:45 PM
Also tarheels, kidcolin, about Lebron's "travel",
http://www.nba.com/videorulebook/category.html?cid=76
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 01:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor
ok ive tiptoed around you a bit for a long time. but i dont like you. never have. everyone else slurps you bc this place is filled with celtic fanbois. i think you are a terrible poster.

sailorbot is pretty much post about doing drugs long ago or post about the good old days of the celtics.

you are mix of wiper and bill simmons.
why don't you tell him how you really feel Vic?
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 01:48 PM
Super nice gesture by the Cavs. Weirdly curious about what sort of DNA evidence can prove you innocent of that after 29 years though.
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 01:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor
ok ive tiptoed around you a bit for a long time. but i dont like you. never have. everyone else slurps you bc this place is filled with celtic fanbois. i think you are a terrible poster.

sailorbot is pretty much post about doing drugs long ago or post about the good old days of the celtics.

you are mix of wiper and bill simmons.
I hate the Celtics, but I like sailorsaint.
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 02:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MEbenhoe
Super nice gesture by the Cavs. Weirdly curious about what sort of DNA evidence can prove you innocent of that after 29 years though.
yeah that is really cool.
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 02:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MEbenhoe
Super nice gesture by the Cavs. Weirdly curious about what sort of DNA evidence can prove you innocent of that after 29 years though.
?

It was a rape case. Sperm, blood, whatever genetic material the rapist left at the scene (and was entered into evidence) could have been used to clear that guy.
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 02:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ClarkNasty
You are completely misunderstanding my point.

Boston was unhealthy, etc a huge chunk of the season. We KNEW they were healthy coming into the series. That health, plus the time they'd had to get back into synch over the last few weeks of the season, plus the obv benefits of a shortened playoff bench and lengthier rest periods all suggested they should perform very well. I don't think it's particularly controversial.
This is good as a specific observation.

More generally though, it continues to amaze me how a forum full of people who like to yell "sample size" when it suits their needs so regularly get hysterical over the results of a single playoff game. Just looking at the first round - the Jazz, Spurs, and Suns all looked bad in losing the first game of their series. All were written off to some degree / loled at, and all three went on to win four of the next five games.

Also, historically it is surprisingly common for an underdog team to "steal" one of the first two on the road. Even if you think the Celtics are being undervalued, they're still series dogs. Also, it's very common for the favored team to win both of their road games.

Without delving too much into matchups (I don't care and don't spend much time analyzing anything EC-related), I'd say the most likely outcomes, in order, are:

- split
- Cavs with both
- Celtics with both

We'll see but six games provides more clarity than two, and when the Cavs close out in Boston in a week I can see people looking back and going yeah, that makes sense.
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 02:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IrishHand
?

It was a rape case. Sperm, blood, whatever genetic material the rapist left at the scene (and was entered into evidence) could have been used to clear that guy.
I guess I didn't realize they stored that stuff for 29 years and that they'd still be able to prove after all these years that he didn't actually do it. What would make them suddenly retest this stuff for example. Just seemed odd overall to me.
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 02:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dschmeidreu
Wait, wat? People are joking right.......why would I want to load up on -900 on lakers-- what is this for the series? I mean, assuming for the series, jesus, I'd have to bet quit ea lot of money to get anything back significant-- so I'd have to bet 100 bucks to win 9 dollars, no ty, lol. As great "odds" as those are, meh.
Same goes for Orlando -2000, wtf, if I bet 200 dollars I get 10 back!? Whoop de do, f that, totally not worth it.
i was referring to the line that was set before the series began.
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 02:34 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MEbenhoe
I guess I didn't realize they stored that stuff for 29 years and that they'd still be able to prove after all these years that he didn't actually do it. What would make them suddenly retest this stuff for example. Just seemed odd overall to me.
There was some sort of journalist pushing for the retesting, presumably there was something fishy about the case that drew someone's attention. In general, the police never throw away anything about these cases because if the guy wins a retrial they might need to re-enter that stuff into evidence.
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 02:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ClarkNasty
What would you make the line right now? I assume you agree that the current Pinny fair value line of like +/-225 is generous?

I also think Cle is a favorite, but think it's closer to +/-130
Clark, I'm sure you probably already know this but....

Particularly in the internet age, the Vegas market is ridiculously efficient. Theres absolutely no way that Vegas would have a line of 225 on a big time series when the true line is 130. Therefore, if you're doing your own projections and come up with something that differs with the Vegas line that drastically, I think its best to rethink your own projections a bit and ask yourself if you're overlooking an aspect of it.
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 02:36 PM
im ready for a new avatar!
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 02:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tuq

More generally though, it continues to amaze me how a forum full of people who like to yell "sample size" when it suits their needs so regularly get hysterical over the results of a single playoff game.
completely agree, its really annoying and is contradictory to a lot of the analysis itt
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 02:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MEbenhoe
Super nice gesture by the Cavs. Weirdly curious about what sort of DNA evidence can prove you innocent of that after 29 years though.
DNA is forever
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 02:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ClarkNasty
And LA -900.

-380 before series was loltastic.
and same thing here.....unless you have a proven track record of beating the Vegas lines over a large sample size, I simply don't think you can call a line "loltastic." With either some inside info, a proven winning system, or a statistical simulation of some sort it is indeed possible to find SMALL edges on Vegas lines, but even then you won't fine "loltastic" lines.

But lets be honest.....99% of the people who make comments like yours or this one:

Quote:
Originally Posted by alexstat
wow man. i need to start betting on sports.
don't have any proven success beating the market. Rather they just "watch the games" and think they are somehow naturally gifted enough to be able to beat it. And then they make results oriented comments after the fact and/or have selective memory regarding their past success.
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 02:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Assani Fisher
and same thing here.....unless you have a proven track record of beating the Vegas lines over a large sample size, I simply don't think you can call a line "loltastic." With either some inside info, a proven winning system, or a statistical simulation of some sort it is indeed possible to find SMALL edges on Vegas lines, but even then you won't fine "loltastic" lines.

But lets be honest.....99% of the people who make comments like yours or this one:



don't have any proven success beating the market. Rather they just "watch the games" and think they are somehow naturally gifted enough to be able to beat it. And then they make results oriented comments after the fact and/or have selective memory regarding their past success.
u wont get an argument from me there. i have zero clues about sports betting professionally. but i would have took that bet before the series not just after i knew the outcome. Maybe its the homer in me or maybe its cause we spank the jazz a lot i dunno. but i would have took it for sho.

oh and i never said i'm gifted at beating the marker lol.
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 02:52 PM
PSA: Bill Walton giving an awesome interview on WFAN right now. You can listen wfan.com
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 02:57 PM
CO, BW. I just turned it on and the first thing I heard is that he starts working out every day at 4:30am
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 02:58 PM
Damn, it really sucks that someone as awesome as Walton has had such bad luck with his healthy. He basically has metal wrists, ankles, and spine.
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 02:58 PM
Assani,

LDO
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 03:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tuq
This is good as a specific observation.

More generally though, it continues to amaze me how a forum full of people who like to yell "sample size" when it suits their needs so regularly get hysterical over the results of a single playoff game. Just looking at the first round - the Jazz, Spurs, and Suns all looked bad in losing the first game of their series. All were written off to some degree / loled at, and all three went on to win four of the next five games.

Also, historically it is surprisingly common for an underdog team to "steal" one of the first two on the road. Even if you think the Celtics are being undervalued, they're still series dogs. Also, it's very common for the favored team to win both of their road games.

Without delving too much into matchups (I don't care and don't spend much time analyzing anything EC-related), I'd say the most likely outcomes, in order, are:

- split
- Cavs with both
- Celtics with both


We'll see but six games provides more clarity than two, and when the Cavs close out in Boston in a week I can see people looking back and going yeah, that makes sense.
i will gladly bet on that. ie, if cavs win both you win. if celts win both, i win. split is a push.

up to 1k. open to anyone obv.

sorry but this series has the same feeling as last yr vs the magic.
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 03:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Assani Fisher
Clark, I'm sure you probably already know this but....

Particularly in the internet age, the Vegas market is ridiculously efficient. Theres absolutely no way that Vegas would have a line of 225 on a big time series when the true line is 130. Therefore, if you're doing your own projections and come up with something that differs with the Vegas line that drastically, I think its best to rethink your own projections a bit and ask yourself if you're overlooking an aspect of it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Assani Fisher
and same thing here.....unless you have a proven track record of beating the Vegas lines over a large sample size, I simply don't think you can call a line "loltastic." With either some inside info, a proven winning system, or a statistical simulation of some sort it is indeed possible to find SMALL edges on Vegas lines, but even then you won't fine "loltastic" lines.

But lets be honest.....99% of the people who make comments like yours or this one:



don't have any proven success beating the market. Rather they just "watch the games" and think they are somehow naturally gifted enough to be able to beat it. And then they make results oriented comments after the fact and/or have selective memory regarding their past success.
lol at thinking vegas lines are perfect. they had the cavs as heavy favs over the magic last year and was pretty friggin clear that the magic were at least very close and more likely better.
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 03:13 PM
Nothing new, but Pops is awesome.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWCcroQztJM#t=2m42s
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote
05-06-2010 , 03:14 PM
Saw that interview this morning, pretty funny.
NBA Season Thread 2009-2010 Quote

      
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