If you believe the reports, Lakers have Ball ahead of Fultz as well.

Agee that Danny is blowing this good fortune... fultz is basically the guy you were waiting for, you take him even if he is a pg. maybe if you already have a dominant big u can pass on one but not with ball handlers imho

Ball sucks

Yeah more I think more I like this for Philly.

For Boston depends how they flip the extra assets. Could end up good for both if Boston finds a Sucker.

people talking about josh jackson as a potential butler/george/kiwi type, remember that a those guys came into the NBA after 2-3 years of college, and mostly took a season or two to get really good. kawhi was already great at 21 but for the rest its 22-23. same with giannis actually.

id say jackson is actually pretty far along skills-wise, and while his size and frame are not elite they are definitely good.

5-10% he ends up top 10 in the NBA at some point in his career seems reasonable.

i actually think his ceiling is higher than tatum just because of defense / athleticism and im not seeing tatum's far superior mid range game meaning much.

isaac might be the most intriguing prospect of those 3, although his offensive skillset is definitely far behind.

Only makes a ton of sense if they want to flip the pick for butler or pg. they couldn't get extra future high value picks from Indy or Chicago so make a trade with philly and trade this years third overall for pg or butler but still have future top 5 likely first rounders with the Lakers/kings picks.

I read Magic thought Fultz had the best workout they've seen. Also they were trying to trade up to number 1.

http://hoopshype.com/2017/06/18/lake...arkelle-fultz/

The tweets from Woj and Giovony about it are on that page.

gotta feel like the Indy or Chicago GM is gonna be pretty ticked to have ainge trade away the #1 and then come offering the #3.

Yeah Ainge is good at that. Just worried he takes JJ, who I think isn't very good, and if he does I think Celtics lose this deal pretty decidedly.

However it's well documented that the best predictor of championship contention is through #1 picks so giving that up for Josh Jackson (if this is the route) seems pretty dangerous for a team that's already pretty close and is set up incredibly well for the next 7-10 years

Basically feeling like if Boston takes JJ I hate this trade for them
If they take Isaac it's close to even
If they move it for PG or to stockpile more Top 10 picks (since the relative value to that is way more than taking like JJ) I love it

This is pretty lazy analysis.

Eh, obviously it's imperfect due to weird outlier stuff like the 24th and 7th pick looking basically equal, and variance in draft class, but it looks alright as a basic estimate of what you're giving up by trading down.

Obviously it's more of a Fultz/Ball WS expectation vs whoever they select + EV of future pick. But yeah like the #2 pick this year is significantly >>> #1 pick in 2013 so you kinda have to evaluate drafts individually

i would also say its lazy analysis but for a different reason

ainge could just look at that chart and say "we believe the #1 pick is josh jackson, so we're getting our #1 pick in win shares at #3 with extra stuff"

hard to counter that logic if you believe the draft pick winshares is ironclad.

good article: https://cleaningtheglass.com/a-roll-of-the-dice-part-1/

many of the hot takes in this thread will get exposed, actually hope we get more hot takes in the mid/back of the draft since some of these guys are inevitably gonna outperform the trash rating that so many mocks give.

Problem with the number one pick analysis is occasionally there are transcendent players that up the average for one a ton like kareeem, bron. This year while fultz is good prospect I don't think the gap between him and the rest of the top 10, especially ball,is as extreme as it could be in other years (last year is an extreme example of where Simmons could be more valuable then his entire lottery class in a few years if there isn't a giant improvement in their play; Simmons could also bust).

lol @ the last few posts (but that article is good)

Fultz is a strong prospect relative to the last few years. He'd have gone #1 last year

And believing JJ is the best prospect in this class is just poor player evaluation, which Ainge has proven he's capable of over and over, so of course the win expectancy of the pick changes when you're **** at evaluating prospects

It's obv correct but it's also obv heavily weighted by the obvious can't miss classes. Danny Ainge never makes this deal in a Duncan/LeBron/KAT draft.

Fultz would have gone 1 last year, 2 in 2015, and 2 in 2014 if I had to guess.

Add to that, next year's class honestly isn't very good, unless Doncic is even like half of what Dean thinks

fultz could easily end up being better than KAT is the problem.

I'd bet against that.

Falk is really overestimating the chaos of player evaluation honestly and predictor of success honestly.

It's way easier in the NBA than any other sport. Just glance over the Rivals Top 10 for the last 15 years. and it's pretty much the NBA top talent pool. NBA players are identified by age 16 and it's more uncommon when they miss than when they hit

Easily could mean like 10-15% of the time imo. That's a high likelihood and worth gambling on when the floor is still good player

Sounds to me like Ainge wants Tatum or maybe a dark horse like Isaac. More than likely Tatum. Next question is how far Jackson falls?

Isaac is promised by either Phoenix or Orlando so if it's Phoenix then Jackson or Fox gonna slip past 5 which becomes huge value imo

Woj

Sources: Phil Jackson met with Lauri Markkanen in New York on Monday, a player whom he's considering at No. 8 should Knicks move Porzingis.

Ian Bagley

The Knicks have gotten several calls from teams interested in trading for Kristaps Porzingis in recent days, per ESPN sources. Porzingis' brother, Janis, said that Porzingis loves New York and wants to win here. He reiterates that his brother will play out his contract and explore free agency if traded.