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NBA 2008 Rookie Draft Thread NBA 2008 Rookie Draft Thread

06-27-2008 , 09:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Assani Fisher
What info?

I'm assuming that NBA teams of scouts watch every single college game these kids have ever played as well as some AAU, HS, and any other league games. Many of us here have seem maybe 5 or 6 televised games of these kids.
Just because people don't watch all the games, doesn't mean the GM's have access to more info. And AAU games aren't relevant anymore really, its dated info.

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Private workouts where they can ask the kids to go through any drill they want to specifically determine how strong/weak they are in any category.

Public workouts in which they send scouts to. I'm assuming most of us here didn't attend these.
We get the results of measurements and plenty of sources recap these camps. Is there some magic super secret drill we don't know about?

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Private interviews where they can ask them any question they desire.
Utterly irrelevant.

[quoteNBA/College connections. I'm sure many of these NBA guys have friends who coach in some manner in college and have advanced scouting reports on these kids. You don't think being able to ask a friend who coaches for a Conference USA team about Derrick Rose helps at all? You don't think he might have some insight that us here at twoplustwo don't have?[/quote]

So you're arguing that dumb guys have smart friends?


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I can't believe you're even debating this Clark. If we took a poll of everyone in this thread and asked how many full games of Mayo everyone has watched, what do you think the average would be about? I'd be shocked if it were higher than 5. And we're comparing that knowledge(maybe 5 games) to the knowledge of guys who get paid to work 40+ hours per week scouting these guys????
We're debating available relevant information. You're suggesting they have some secret sauce which has 2p2ers at some inherent huge informational disadvantage. I think that's patently false.
NBA 2008 Rookie Draft Thread Quote
06-27-2008 , 10:00 AM
This one doesn't seem that tough. The Mayo pick is a greater risk/reward than Love, while they are close to the same level right now. I think that's pretty clear, so all these arguments are just speculation.

FWIW I like Mayo on any team that royally sucks, because there is always next year and you can get rid of guy for a decent price, even if he performs poorly the first season or so. I don't like what Memphis gave up for him, though.

I'm anxious to see how Minnesota performs with a passer like Love and an all-world shooter. My guess is they win 35-40 next year. Am I reaching?
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06-27-2008 , 10:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ClarkNasty
WTF with everyone acting like Love is bad defensively. He's a pretty good defender.

On a separate but similar note, Mayo ain't some shut down elite defender. He's good, not great.
I'm glad you said this clark bc I really wasn't sure on what to think about mayo's defense and I'm skeptical of SE's classification of people as "very good" and "elite defenders" when it seems like there's about 20 wings out there who at one time or another have been referred to as elite or close to all nba level
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06-27-2008 , 10:03 AM
Conley-Mayo-Gay backcourt has a chance to be pretty good. Will see though. If the Grizzles just got Mayo and didn't get Arthur I would have been pretty upset but the two together should make for a solid core in 3-4 seasons. Mayo could be a all-star level player in a couple of years although he could be horrible as well. Love is good but I'm not sure if he'll ever be AS level in a stacked WC, but I definitely liked him a lot in a Grizzles uniform next year.
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06-27-2008 , 10:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Seadood228
I'm anxious to see how Minnesota performs with a passer like Love and an all-world shooter. My guess is they win 35-40 next year. Am I reaching?
when I first read that I thought it was really high, but now looking at the roster I think you're spot on. I think miller adds about 10 wins, and I think love will be a bit better than an average player adding about 8 wins. Subtract a few wins from the guys whose minutes they're taking and I think you're spot on.
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06-27-2008 , 10:38 AM
I am grunching this whole thread to share thoughts:

I really wanted the Supes to get Augustine, but I can't hate on Westbrook. A better choice than Lopez or some of the other possible lurking mistakes.

I like using the 2nd 1st round pick on a guy who won't queer up the cap right now, and might be good later. I doubt most fans will understand this, but it's a smart move.

DJ White seems like a nice fit.

I think Portland owned. As a team that probably has a 60% shot of being my team in like 2 years, it's nice to see that. Bayless is a great scorer.
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06-27-2008 , 11:11 AM
I don't know if the NBA is the same way, but in the weeks leading up to the NFL Draft, most draftniks always seem a step behind what the actual scouts/teams are thinking. When something "crazy" happens, there's usually a reason for it.
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06-27-2008 , 12:52 PM
so the cavs picked up darnell jackson and sasha kaun both from kansas.

anyone know anything about these clowns? d-leaguers right?
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06-27-2008 , 12:53 PM
Quote:
I'm anxious to see how Minnesota performs with a passer like Love and an all-world shooter. My guess is they win 35-40 next year. Am I reaching?
35 seems like a good ceiling.

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I really wanted the Supes to get Augustine, but I can't hate on Westbrook. A better choice than Lopez or some of the other possible lurking mistakes.
grunching this

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I think Portland owned. As a team that probably has a 60% shot of being my team in like 2 years, it's nice to see that. Bayless is a great scorer.
I guess I'm in the minority here. Bayless's upside is higher, but I think Rush is probably better. Bayless is a tweener who's too small for the 2-guard and lacks PG skills yet dominates the ball. Does he fall in line under McMillan? Does he play alongside Roy, who's more of a point-playing 2-guard anyway? Does Bayless even get minutes if Rudy Fernandez is as good as some think?

Rush just seemed like a great fit. In general, I don't think either team really dominated that trade. Portland did do good overall though.

New Jersey, Minny, and Portland clear winners of this draft, imo.
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06-27-2008 , 01:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor
so the cavs picked up darnell jackson and sasha kaun both from kansas.

anyone know anything about these clowns? d-leaguers right?
Kaun's getting a million a year for three years to go play in his native Russia, doubt you'll be seeing him schlep around the D-League anytime soon. Jackson, no clue.
NBA 2008 Rookie Draft Thread Quote
06-27-2008 , 02:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Assani Fisher
The best player on each of the team that won the title:

1979-80: Magic Johnson*
1980-81: Larry Bird*
1981-82: Magic Johnson*
1982-83: Moses Malone^
1983-84: Larry Bird*
1984-85: Magic Johnson*
1985-86: Larry Bird*
1986-87: Magic Johnson*
1987-88: Magic Johnson*
1988-89: Isiah Thomas*
1989-90: Isiah Thomas*
1990-91: Michael Jordan*
1991-92: Michael Jordan*
1992-93: Michael Jordan*
1993-94: Hakeem Olajuwon^
1994-95: Hakeem Olajuwon^
1995-96: Michael Jordan*
1996-97: Michael Jordan*
1997-98: Michael Jordan*
1998-99: Tim Duncan^
1999-00: Shaquille O Neal^
2000-01: Shaquille O Neal^
2001-02: Shaquille O Neal^
2002-03: Tim Duncan^
2003-04: Too Close To Call
2004-05: Tim Duncan^
2005-06: Dwyane Wade*
2006-07: Tim Duncan^

*guard/perimeter player
^big man/post player

Out of 28 years, NBA Champions 17 times had a guard as their best player and only 10 times had a post player as their best player(with the 2003-04 Pistons being too close to call). Obviously judging a team’s best player is extremely subjective, so lets take a look at some more objective criteria…



Here are the Finals MVPs of each year:

1979-80: Magic Johnson*
1980-81: Cedric Maxwell*
1981-82: Magic Johnson*
1982-83: Magic Johnson*
1983-84: Larry Bird*
1984-85: Kareem Abdul Jabbar^
1985-86: Larry Bird*
1986-87: Magic Johnson*
1987-88: James Worthy*
1988-89: Joe Dumars*
1989-90: Isiah Thomas*
1990-91: Michael Jordan*
1991-92: Michael Jordan*
1992-93: Michael Jordan*
1993-94: Hakeem Olajuwon^
1994-95: Hakeem Olajuwon^
1995-96: Michael Jordan*
1996-97: Michael Jordan*
1997-98: Michael Jordan*
1998-99: Tim Duncan^
1999-00: Shaquille O Neal^
2000-01: Shaquille O Neal^
2001-02: Shaquille O Neal^
2002-03: Tim Duncan^
2003-04: Chauncey Billups*
2004-05: Tim Duncan^
2005-06: Dwyane Wade*
2006-07: Tony Parker*

*guard/perimeter player
^big man/post player

19 out of the 28 teams had their Finals MVP come from one of the guard positions, while only 9 of them were big men.


Here were a list of players that made the all star team that year on each of the championship teams:

1979-80: Kareem Abdul Jabbar^, Magic Johnson*
1980-81: Larry Bird*, Robert Parish^
1981-82: Kareem Abdul Jabbar^, Magic Johnson*,
1982-83: Maurice Cheeks*, Julius Erving*, Moses Malone^
1983-84: Larry Bird*, Kevin McHale^, Robert Parish^
1984-85: Kareem Abdul Jabbar^, Magic Johnson*
1985-86: Larry Bird*, Kevin Mchale^, Robert Parish^
1986-87: Kareem Abdul Jabbar^, Magic Johnson*, James Worthy^
1987-88: Kareem Abdul Jabbar^, Magic Johnson*, James Worthy^
1988-89: Isiah Thomas*
1989-90: Isiah Thomas*, Dennis Rodman^, Joe Dumars*
1990-91: Michael Jordan*
1991-92: Michael Jordan*, Scottie Pippen*
1992-93: Michael Jordan*, Scottie Pippen*
1993-94: Hakeem Olajuwon^
1994-95: Hakeem Olajuwon^
1995-96: Michael Jordan*, Scottie Pippen*
1996-97: Michael Jordan*, Scottie Pippen*
1997-98: Michael Jordan*
1998-99: No All Star Game due to Player’s Strike
1999-00: Kobe Bryant*, Shaquille O Neal^
2000-01: Kobe Bryant*, Shaquille O Neal^
2001-02: Kobe Bryant*, Shaquille O Neal^
2002-03: Tim Duncan^
2003-04: Ben Wallace^
2004-05: Tim Duncan^, Manu Ginobili*
2005-06: Shaquille O Neal^, Dwyane Wade*
2006-07: Tim Duncan^, Tony Parker*

Total: 29 guards, 24 big men. Also note that I counted James Worthy as a post player, although it may be debatable.


I could go on with other measures, but I think the point has been made. I will note that since, under my definition of post player and perimeter player, there are 3 perimeter players on the floor with 2 post players, it does indeed skew the stats a bit. However, my intention here is not to prove that guards are more vital or necessary as post players in order to win a title. I simply wanted to show that it is at least very close and that the cliché of “You need a great big man to win a title” is a myth and is no more true than “You need a great perimeter player in order to win a title.”
I was out grinding at Caesars and just saw this after going back thru the thread. PLS, PLS, PLS tell me this post is a level or that you were drunk/high. My point was that you require excellent post players to win rings, the guards can be good or great. Nothing in your response refutes my point and much in it confirms my point. For example, Bird's Celtics featured Bird, McHale, Parish, at the 3, 4, 5. So what if Bird was the best player, that team was post oriented, and Bird was a big part of that. I'm guessing you never saw these teams play since you listed Cornbread Maxwell (a 6-9 PF) as a guard. Magic's Lakers also had a HOF center (Kareem) and Worthy (great post player) and Magic himself played 60% of the time in the paint *(all of D and sometimes on O) once again you must not have seen this team play. Kareem won rings w/o Magic, but not vice versa. I already pointed out the great post play of the Pistons, yes Isaiah was the best player, but the Piston were loaded in the paint, esp. on D. Outside of Jordan's Bulls, which I noted as exceptions, no team on these lists helps your point, look at all the HOF 5s on these teams (Moses, Parish, Kareem, Olajuwon, plus Duncan and Shaq) From 79-80 on only Jordan's Bulls and the Pistons teams didn't have a HOF Center, that alone proves my point.
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06-27-2008 , 02:31 PM
Assani,

I think you are somewhat right when you say you need both great perimeter play and great interior play to win a championship but I think there's a pretty cool argument for why post play is more important.

(this argument is taken from Berri's wages of wins, I'm a huge WoW disciple and think the critiques of his are really off, but I think this argument is just true)

The average height of guards is probably somewhere around 6'5 or 6'6, the average height of PF's and C's is 6'10 and the average height of an American male is 5'9. The standard deviation of height in America is 3 inches. This means that any PF or C is about 4 or 5 standard deviations away from average. Simply put, the parlay of high athleticism, high bball intelligence, and being tall is an incredible parlay to hit that few people in the world can hit. The potential pool for guards is way way higher. This means that you should build your team from the inside out, as good post presence is very hard to find, but you can always pick up solid wings later. Look at those Shaq teams, the reason they win is bc of shaq. It's clear that without Kobe, that those teams probably wouldn't win 3 championships, but there are a lot more wings close to kobe then there were centers close to shaq. Look at the game today, the only great 2 post players are Duncan, KG, Howard, Amare, Howard, Yao, maybe Brand. You have some other guys who are good but not great, but almost every team has a decent player than can play a wing spot. Wade, Kobe,Pierce,Lebron,Gerald Wallace, Jason Richardon, Monta Ellis, Kevin Martin, Shawn Marion, Lamar Odom, Rudy Gay, Mike Miller,rip hamilton, Manu,etc. Even if I'm being stingy on who the great post players are, it's clear to me that there is a shorter supply of them, and that explains why big men are so important to winning a championship. Once you hit that parlay and can get a highly skilled big man, it's a lot easier to slot in the rest of the guys and reach a championship level of talent than trying to start there with a hole and good guard play.
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06-27-2008 , 03:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Assani Fisher
I don't think you can use college basketball stats to produce NBA picks very well though. Not football either. Theres just way too many guys like Laettner, Juan Dixon, Acie Law, Josh McRoberts, etc. who are stars in college but it just doesn't carry over.
Man, Laettner was actually a pretty solid NBA player until his injury.[/nitpick]
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06-27-2008 , 03:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Victor
so the cavs picked up darnell jackson and sasha kaun both from kansas.

anyone know anything about these clowns? d-leaguers right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dudd
Kaun's getting a million a year for three years to go play in his native Russia, doubt you'll be seeing him schlep around the D-League anytime soon. Jackson, no clue.
Yeah, Kaun may play in Russia if he doesn't make the Cavs roster. Jackson is decent player, might squeeze into a roster spot. They both got much better in their 4 years at KU, particularly their senior years when they both became capable at scoring. Jackson plays good d and gets boards. Yes, I'm a KU homer, but I think Uncle Darnell could help Cleveland.
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06-27-2008 , 03:48 PM
Stuckey is going to be a big time player. There is no doubt about it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Assani Fisher
You're looking at his rookie stats and deducing that hes not efficient. Thats pretty unfair imo. Everything I've heard out of Detroit is that they're very high on him and think he can be a big time player eventually. Maybe thats just unwarranted hype though...only Detroit knows for sure.
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06-27-2008 , 04:05 PM
There are tons of good players who were horribly inefficient as a rookie and improved dramatically. Lebron, Pippen, Mark Price, Kyle Korver, those were just a few of the names that jumped off of a quick b-ref search who had similar TS% as Stuckey their rookie years and improved dramatically.
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06-27-2008 , 04:36 PM
I tend to think Stuckey will be very good not great. Which is to say very valuable. His jump shot is shaky but he's an excellent attacker.
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06-27-2008 , 04:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Dudd
There are tons of good players who were horribly inefficient as a rookie and improved dramatically. Lebron, Pippen, Mark Price, Kyle Korver, those were just a few of the names that jumped off of a quick b-ref search who had similar TS% as Stuckey their rookie years and improved dramatically.
one would hope a player doesn't peak during his rookie year, so of course there are players who had massive jumps; however, i'm going to guess that there are far more who had notable, but not substantial improvements. while the ts%'s are comparable, there is a substantial difference b/t their efg%'s. time will tell wrt to whether he improves a lot or little, but offering up these players as reasons why he will doesn't prove much b/c they are exceptions. it's one thing to say stuckey has the potential to be a good player and another to claim he is a rising star.

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You're looking at his rookie stats and deducing that hes not efficient. Thats pretty unfair imo. Everything I've heard out of Detroit is that they're very high on him and think he can be a big time player eventually. Maybe thats just unwarranted hype though...only Detroit knows for sure.
i just don't really know what to say to this. i am not deducing he is not efficient-- the numbers speak for themselves. they may not be completely accurate, but they're all we've got for now and they are more likely to be a decent representation of his efficiency than they are to be a gross aberration. seeing him in the playoffs it is clear that stuckey has potential, but again that is not the same as saying he is going to be a "big time player."
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06-27-2008 , 04:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Assani Fisher
Why exactly don't you feel as if Yao is capable of winning a ring if he had the talent around him to do it?
bc it takes a big man to win titles and Yao just isnt good enuogh to lead a team. only one team ever won without a great big man in my lifetime but they had the greatest player to ever play the game and did do it six times. Yao is a horrible on defense as well he is over 7ft and still get dunked on he needs to learn how to foul hard.
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06-27-2008 , 05:24 PM
Luc Longley agrees.

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Originally Posted by dangeraw
bc it takes a big man to win titles and Yao just isnt good enuogh to lead a team. only one team ever won without a great big man in my lifetime but they had the greatest player to ever play the game and did do it six times. Yao is a horrible on defense as well he is over 7ft and still get dunked on he needs to learn how to foul hard.
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06-27-2008 , 05:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dangeraw
bc it takes a big man to win titles and Yao just isnt good enuogh to lead a team. only one team ever won without a great big man in my lifetime but they had the greatest player to ever play the game and did do it six times. Yao is a horrible on defense as well he is over 7ft and still get dunked on he needs to learn how to foul hard.
Yao isn't horrible on D by any means or metric. He's actually really, really good. Career DRTG is 99, and an average rebounder for a big man and average shot blocker. The only big problem with Yao is the number of games he misses. He's a good shooter, good FT shooter, solid scorer, and decent passer.
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06-27-2008 , 06:01 PM
lol at saying yao doesn't suck on D.
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06-27-2008 , 06:05 PM
Yao's pick and roll defense is horrible, him and Shaq are the 2 worst pick and roll starting bigmen in the NBA right now.

Yao's post defense however is very good.
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06-27-2008 , 06:07 PM
lol at yao having any skills at d if his post d is any good why does he get dunked on so much.
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06-27-2008 , 06:09 PM
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Originally Posted by dangeraw
lol at yao having any skills at d if his post d is any good why does he get dunked on so much.
Tons of great shotblockers come to mind as getting dunked on.... Mourning, Ratliff, AK47 etc.

It's because they challenge every shot, of course they will get dunked on ocasionally. You act like Yao is getting dunked on every game, that is hardly the case.
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