for such a smart dude (and you are), you sure post about all the smart things you've said before a lot.

Yeah, maybe I'm reading too much into one game, bad matchup, etc, but this game really opened my eyes as to exactly how wide the chasm is between AI and Chauncey WRT on-ball defense.

Also, sorry about the DSCH spats guys, he's now on my ignore list so I won't be getting involved with that anymore.

score one for the home team! Thanks.

fwiw, I think this is pretty intuitive. I just think we tend to remember the times they go miss/hit and think "oh he made an adjustment" and ignore all the times it goes hit/miss and miss/miss. The true fact is, especially with the Shaq-types, is they're awful FT shooters, so it doesn't make sense to think their "adjustments" or whatever will have a positive affect.

I could buy that there's some small correlation, but nothing really statistically significant.

I'd probably like him more if he didn't. Like you'd have to be a pretty wild and crazy guy to not know Obama, the kind of wild and crazy guy I'd get a kick out of hanging out with but wouldn't give my phone # to just in case he's really crazy.

Skin color and party lines, like the rest of us!

Perhaps if you knew how to read, you would have figured it out. Googling "Ted Stevens felon" gets the job done...

The study was actually of FGA not FTA. I have/had some methodological problems with the study in that treating each FGA as an independent random event is much more problematic than FTAs for some fairly obvious reasons.

I mean, consider the "heat check" shot as just one example. Conversely, when you are shooting bad, conventional wisdom says try to get something easy to get yourself going. These may or may not be true, but simply looking at FGA isn't going to tell us a lot about the qualities of a given shot.

Question for statheads: When you argue a player's athleticism, what metrics do you use? The numbers from all the stuff they put the players through at the pre-draft camp (vertical, 3/4 court sprint, bench, etc.)? Do you also factor in stuff like vertical reach?

I think this is interesting because all the athletic measurements I mention above have been around forever, but whenever I hear mention of a player's athleticism it's usually based on a qualitative assessment (e.g. "he can blow by anyone on the dribble", or "he just seems to get higher than everyone on rebounds"). Is it just not possible to use stats when evaluating a basketball player's athleticism because it's such a complex process for a player to integrate and maximize their athletic ability into the sport?

For a hypothetical, say two shooting guards are the same age, and have exactly the same stats on the court, but someone argues that one is more athletic than the other and that that athleticism will ultimately make them a better player in the long run. Could they statistically argue that?

damn it.

kbfc, get on this. This is important.

Short answer, no.

Something like a 40 time isn't really a statistic in the same sense as kbfc, Bobbo et al. are discussing them.

I was quoted in a Simmons article a while ago making fun of Doug Collins for saying some variation of "You can't give a struggling shooter an easy basket to give him confidence" about 25-30 times per game. Hell, it could even be true, but Collins just beat it to death.

Yeah, I'm just wondering with how advanced stats are getting now if there's even any reason to argue about whether or not one player is more athletic than another because any athletic advantage they have will now show up in the stats.

KC, what do you think of OJ Mayo personally? Are you a fan or not?

I ask because it really comes across to me as if you're biased against him.

Quite a few of your comments just seem to be extremely one sided, and your quick response that Mayo isn't a good defender has me suspicious. Have you really seen Mayo that often and paid attention to his defense? I havn't, so I can't comment, but I can tell you:


-Mayo was highly regarded on D coming into the league. From nbadraft.net: "When he buckles down defensively, he gives fits to many players. He is able to stay in front of quicker point guards as well as athletic wing players."



-You mention his height and wingspan, but from nbadraftnet: "Some of his height concerns were answered when he measured 64.25 with shoes in Orlando to go along with a 66 wingspan."



-You mention that hes not an athletic freak, but from nbadraft.net: "Most impressive of all was his 41 vertical."



-I don't want you to think that I'm just selectively posting nbadraft.net's good points about him while ignoring all the bad. Here were his weaknesses according to them:

"Weaknesses: Is still somewhat undersized to play off the ball His first step is lacking in explosiveness and he does not have the greatest ability to turn the corner, as a result he rarely blows by defenders and is forced into shooting tough and contested shots too often While he was able to convert on challenged shots in college, those shots will be that much tougher at the next level Because he is forced to finish in a crowd every time he goes to the hoop, he seems to settle for the outside shot because it is less demanding on his body Goes through shooting slumps too frequently He has decent court vision, but lacks a floor general's mentality, he strictly looks to create for himself and only gives the ball up as a last resort His somewhat selfish approach causes him to force the issue too much, and as he gets into trouble by over-dribbling and completely stagnating the offense Averaged more turnovers (3.5) than assists (3.3) Allegations of receiving illegal benefits from his agent bring back old questions about his character"

Notice not one mention of poor athleticism or defense, and these scouting reports are usually very quick to bash players who can't keep up on D.




-Memphis was 28th in points per 100 possessions allowed last year. This year they're replaced Stromile Swift, Mike Miller, and JCN with Gasol, Mayo, and Arthur and they are currently 9th in points per 100 possessions allowed. I am not sure about Gasol or Arthur on D, so I'm not sure who should get the credit for this.




-Obviously I don't know who exactly he was guarding in every game, but here is how the shorter/smaller of the two opposing starting wings has done in games against Memphis so far this year:

TMac: 7/18(1/3 from 3), 16 points
Pietrus: 1/6(1/4 from 3), 3 points
Sefolosha: 3/5(0/1 from 3), 8 points
S Jackson: 6/21(2/9 from 3), 17 points
K Martin: 11/18(1/3 from 3), 33 points
Azubuike: 8/16(2/5 from 3), 21 points
Billups/Jones(not sure who to count as the SG): 2/13(2/6 from 3), 16 points and 5/7(0/0 from 3), 11 points
Bell: 4/8(2/5 from 3), 10 points
Crawford: 10/20(2/8 from 3), 25 points
Bell: 0/4(0/1 from 3), 2 points
Jackson: 5/12(1/7 from 3), 13 points

Totals and averages:
62/148(41.89%)
15/52 from 3(28.84%)
14.58 PPG




Let me again reiterate that I don't think that any of these things PROVE that hes a good NBA defender. However, when added together I think they definitely do suggest so, and if you want to continue to say hes a poor defender then I believe its on you to demonstrate why.

victor

Yeah, I know I make fun of Victor for his never ending campaign against that, but I do pretty much agree with him and like how he takes anyone on about it.

Also, I posted earlier asking if steal to turnover ratio was anywhere online. I think Assani said I could easily do this myself, but I really don't want to do that for the whole league. Basically what I was wondering if:

Steals + (Blocks*% of blocks that change possession):Turnovers

is a valid stat for understanding who exactly is costing their teams the most net possessions. Is this accounted for anywhere? I understand most of the advanced metrics, but some of the more obscure ones I just haven't bothered researching.

I see what your saying and absolutely, by that definition BB sucks on offense.

It might be an interesting stat, but I think there is way too much unaccounted for (forced turnovers that aren't steals, bad shots etc.,) for it to be super useful.

After doing the OJ Mayo post I don't really feel like digging up the stats for PGs against Detroit post-trade, but maybe someone else wants to. I did it for the first 3 or 4 PGs to play against them and it was very telling.

I don't doubt the stats, but from personal experience it seems to me that its obvious that streak shooting does indeed exist and that your second FT attempt will be easier because you can make adjustments. At the risk of sounding like Dmsch, I don't think I'll ever change my mind on this no matter what stats or facts you can tell me(although at least I am relying upon something in personal experience unlike him).

Hell, today playing pickup at the gym, I went 2 games where I struggled a ton and was probably something like 2/8 or so. Then I heated up and despite having the best defender there on me I made a ton of contested shots the next few games...probably something like 12/13(with most of them 3s and the one miss was actually a little floater in the lane).

Sample size ldo, but I've had this happen to me enough that I can't fathom that streak shooting doesn't exist.

Despite the fact that I just quoted a vertical measurement, its usually something I just use the eye test to determine. Run/jump athleticism can certainly be measured, but coordination can't.

+1

"It's amazing," Bryant said. I was telling Luke [Walton] this might be the first season where I average 31 minutes, because we've been blowing teams out and I've been sitting the fourth quarter."


im pretty sure luke is just thinking "dude i dont give a ****, i get 2 minutes a game why the hell are you talking to me about this"

Fun Juwan Howard Stat of the Night:

For the years Kobe Bryant and him have overlapped in the NBA, he has made $134,404,000. Kobe has made $127,085,490.

Now that's the dscmed we know and love.

I don't disagree. I had the rest of the class telling me I was an idiot, etc., but I don't think I can be talked out of it either.

I'm definitely in the 'hater' camp, and was way down on him coming into the league. His college #s simply weren't that amazing and I could not understand the hype. But I can be objective enough when data is staring me in the face. He's been playing great. Or at least shooting great. That's why he's my #2 in the rookie rankings.

this is sorta lol sample size, but you were there so you can appreciate it: Summer Leauge '08, Bucks down 11.

"Pass it to OJ's guy!"
<someone passes to OJ's man, OJ lets him right by for a layup, Bucks cover +10, Clark wins>

I have watched him a bit cuz I find the Griz mildly entertaining. He's just not a good defender. Maybe he can become one I don't know. But he's not. I never understood the boners for his D in college.



I havn't, so I can't comment, but I can tell you:

fwiw, I think nbadraft.net is pretty hackish. Or maybe I'm thinking of draftexpress. One of 'em sucks pretty bad. Probably both do. They're basically old-school scouts.

what's this have to do with his wingspan? c+p error? Anyway, the wingspan thing I can definitely provide data for. From the draft camp or whatever it's called, he has a measured standing reach of 8'3.5". Avg for 2guards is 8'5". Standing reach is a better measure than height.



These seem like far more important athletic skills than just a vertical. This is kinda my point. And you can tell from watching him play. He's not blowing past anyone or anything like that. He's not strong enough to power his way into the lane. He's basically a really sick jump shooter.
which is kinda amazing, considering Arthur is frickin' piss poor offensively.

This is interesting data but I'm left unconvinced. Why not just take a look at 82games "by position" stats? They show the eFG%, PER, etc for the player against.


Derrick Rose

OJ Mayo

for s's and g's, here's Ben Gordon, cuz I normally equate OJ as Ben Gordon-lite.
Ben Gordon

You can also take a look at adj +/- over at basketballvalue. Data is way too noisy right now, but Rose kills him there, too.

Agree with Assani on the streak shooting thing.........and also prob would not really care what stats say. There is definately a such thing as getting hot in basektball-- there's so many tiny things that go into a shot, and it's difficult for anybody to get them all flowing well on any given shot-- that's why shooters shoot 40-50%......it's just impossible, on every possession, to get the right arc, the right angle, the right jump height, the right release-- there are utterly so many variables that go into taking a shot, mathematically it just seems logical to me that every so often all those variables are going to match up.....and then a little later become a little uneven, then get back on track, etc.-- and since nobody can really control these variables more than 40-50% of the time, you're going to get streaks........that's my take at least

Bad shots still give you a chance to score though, and I agree they a wasted possession a lot of the time, but I'm not too worried about accounting for it. I'm thinking if there is any way I could tweak it for it to work better, but I would be interested in seeing the straight up results of the equation I posted. I think it would give a rough result at least.