Haha that's an awesome prop bet, I like Assani's side. If no one takes it you should do that anyway imo.

I agree with both of these posts. I'm generally very good at knowing what's wrong with my form and what needs to be adjusted (or I was, anyway), and have gotten "locked in" before. However, that doesn't necessarily mean the hot hand exists in any statistically meaningful sense.

Assani,

Those are probably the most ridiculous specs for a prop bet I have ever heard/seen in my life. And pretty much all of my friends are gamblers.

Make 3 shots in a row obviously.

This sums up how I feel perfectly, especially the last sentence. A+ Nath.

assani,

awesome prop bet. might need some clarification on what you get to call "feeling hot". I might be down for taking $100 or $200 against you on that.

you need to define "reliably", but my first thought is that yes I could.

why does it have to be a casual observer. i wasn't talking about me doing it

what if you only feel hot for 10 shots?



that's my issue here. no one itt even knows the contents of the talk and yet most are proclaiming the results to be unequivocally false. it's absurd

Agreeing again. I know EXACTLY what you're talking about in regards to every thing you've described so far in this discussion.

Just because you know when you've released a good shot doesn't mean that it's more repeatable when you're "hot". Obviously being hurt or not having practiced much or something like that can decrease your %'s but I don't buy the "when you're hot you're hot" stuff. The reason you feel like you are hitting everything is because you are hitting everything(confirmation bias). It used to be a common argument that if you make your 1st free throw you're more likely to make the 2nd because of form memory but iirc that has been debunked.

FWIW, when I say that part of the whole hot hand phenomena is "variance" I mean that it's due to unattributable characteristics that may or may not stem from the player.

Also, def agree with Seth's post about being able to feel shots out. As soon as I release a shot I almost automatically yell out "short" "left" "right" "long" or "good." People rarely listen though so I end up with lots of rebounds.

That's the other issue here. It's not like they are making a "walks clog the basepaths" argument that can easily be dismissed. I really don't have a strong opinion either way on this matter, but think it's somewhat relevant, so it's interesting to discuss.

This actually reminds me of something, and it may actually prove what I said above(that I could "reliably" tell if it was going to go in or not as soon as it came out of my hands).


In my prime, I would always bounce a few times after shooting a shot. Its kinda hard to describe, but kinda image how Tim Duncan looks after shooting a FT(couldn't find youtube) when hes slightly bouncing up and down...well I shot my FTs just like that, and on jumpshots the bounce was even more visible.

Anyway, my college coach told me once that he could usually tell if I had shot the ball perfectly or not because when I did that bounce that usually meant I had shot it perfectly, but if I messed up slightly EVEN IF I DIDN'T FULLY REALIZE IT MYSELF, I would subconciously not bounce as high on my follow through.

I tried to just always bounce then, but that didn't work, as I only intuitively bounced when I had shot the ball perfectly(which usually went in > 80% of the time if I had to estimate), and when I didn't shoot perfectly it could tell that I was forcing myself to bounce and it wasn't natural.

+1. I would wager a decent amount that the % of shots I correctly thought I made upon leaving my hand would be > then my shooting % if that makes sense, though this creates some weird incentives, obviously. When I'm just shooting around, I actually catch myself saying "yep. yep. nope. yep..." on my releases, and confirmation bias, blah, blah, but I'm usually right according to my own casual empricism.

This is like saying a golfer knows when he's going to hit the green after he hits the ball. Well, no ****. I don't even understand why it's being discussed, it says nothing about a hot hand.

I'd like to reiterate my point that, even without knowing the methodology of the study, they could not have really controlled for the variation in shot quality, because if they had, we would have heard about it, because the implications for the APBR community would be immense. Think about it, to have controlled for this, the researchers would have essentially solved the "black box" that is defense.

Basically it'd be at my discretion....any day in which I thought I was hot, well then that day we'd have a prop bet on 50 shots. If I'm not feeling hot(in my opinion), then no bet that day. I would estimate that I'd "feel hot" maybe once every two weeks or so, but I wouldn't be held to doing it that often at all.

jesus +1. Any donk whose played ball can call out short/long/left.. this has nothing at all to do with the hot hand debate.

I'm nowhere near as good a shooter as you, and I'd do this bet too. Again, nothing to do with hot hand theory.

Well, for it to work right, the shot (in either sport) has to be essentially thoughtless - there are too many moving parts to get the timing right otherwise. When one is "locked in" for lack of a better term, muscle-memory takes over completely. It doesn't happen often, but the rim indeed looks like a big old huge bucket, and the ball goes in every time.

Again, on a FT, you can sort of eliminate all "distractions" so that you're theoretcially shooting at your true "percentage" from that spot. I feel like "getting hot" is essentially doing the same thing in the flow of the game itself.

yeah calling the shots would be a - ev wager. i might be willing to do this hot bet though and i don't even necessarily think it's a myth. i just want to gambooool. i don't like the current set up though

edit: for one the # of shots you take while hot has to be comparable to the # of shots in the initial sample. if you take 2000 i want you a lot more than 50 the second time


edit:2 not completely comparable b/c it would defeat the purpose of a streak but more than 50

assani, in the prop bet, what happens if you get hot during the initial trial of shots?

also the number would vary somewhat depending on how many you make out of the initial sample

Someone else please get good at quadradius.com so that we can prop bet on it....really fun game imo.

Prop bet: go to gym with friend, blinders and ear plugs, shoot 25 3 pointers from the top of the key, friend tracks each one's proximity to rim, and after each attempt shooter tells friend where ball went.

Well, we'd only do 100 per day for 20 days, so it would eliminate the possibilty that I'm hot for a huge time of the 2000 shots.