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Old 06-24-2008, 02:26 AM   #13826
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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I also think that some people are overstating AJ ability to create his own shot, either that or underrating Dwight Howard. They've had very similar usage percentages their entire career, AJ pulled slightly ahead this year, 27 to 24, but they're both still high usage players and D12 is worlds ahead when it comes to efficiency.
usage doesn't say a whole lot about one's ability to create his own shot. Dwight takes 12 shots a game... Al 17. Now, part of that is Dwight gets to the line 11 times a game to Al's 5, but part of that is Dwight is a much worse FT shooter and guys just wrap him up. Dwight's main offensive weapon is his athleticism and getting good position so that he can pretty much pivot and dunk. He is developing some nice baby hooks with both hands, so we'll see. But in general, establishing Al is the #1 option on the Wolves.. that's not always the case with Dwight. he gets a lot of putbacks and oops.

If Dwight had Al's post game he'd be in GOAT discussions before all is said and done, imo. Al is just silky smooth down there. Some of the best post game we've seen in a long time. Of course, dunking is better, but it's nice to have something else to go to when that gets clogged up.

Al's biggest weakness, and why I think you CAN double team despite the guys that surround him, is he's not a strong passer at this point. He's not Duncan/Shaq/KG down there with excellent court vision. You mix up the doubles you throw at him and you'll create some turnovers.
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Old 06-24-2008, 02:31 AM   #13827
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

D12 is insaaaaanely turnover prone for someone who uses the ball so little. I hate using PER, but D12's is barely higher (.2) than Big Al's, and given how integral Big Al is to the T'Wolves offense (read: the most important) and how unimportant D12 is (read: a glorified Tyson Chandler), I'll take Big Al offensively.
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Old 06-24-2008, 02:32 AM   #13828
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Well, what do you mean by creating his own shot? Just because he does it with great body position to get an easy dunk instead of hitting a tough fall away doesn't mean he's not creating his own shot, it's just creating a different type of shot. I just find the whole creating his own shot argument to be dumb, and would much prefer to just look at how many shots a guy takes and how efficient he shoots them, everything else just leads to people picking and choosing which parts of a player's game to champion.

That is a good point about turnovers, those are way too high and probably increase his usage rate compared to Al, but obviously not in a positive way.
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Old 06-24-2008, 02:38 AM   #13829
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

i mean if he was as great as it as you say, he'd take more than 12 shots a game. Even being generous and thinking those 11 FTs is 5.5 FGA, that's still 2 shots less than Al giving him the same bonus. If he was that sick at getting position and dunking on fools, he'd do it 20 times a game. Instead he takes a few shots and then barely gets touches in the 4th in close games.

I'm not trying to argue Al is better than Dwight.. he's not. Dwight is more valuable, by a fairly wide margin. But if you need a bucket I feel pretty good about dumping it into Al. If Dwight's on my team, I glance to see if he's in position to dunk, then when he's not take the shot myself and hope he gets the Oreb.
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Old 06-24-2008, 02:48 AM   #13830
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

But like Assani said though, if you think he's a reliable post scorer, that's pretty much just code for shoots a lot at an average efficiency. Dwight is worse than I originally thought because I didn't realize that he gives away over a turnover per game more than Al, which negates a lot of his efficiency advantage, but I don't think that simply stating that Al posts more makes him automatically a better offensive option, just different.
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Old 06-24-2008, 02:49 AM   #13831
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Have you seen the T'Wolves lately? They have 2 guys who got drafted in this, and both suck. The Magic on the other hand constantly have 4 guys who either chuck up 3's or feed D12 for easy baskets. That's IDEAL offense to maximize a big man's TS%. Al on the other hand is stuck on the T'Wolves who rated 27th offensively in the league. Half the starters on their squad are Rondo bad at shooting. The other half wouldn't be able to pass after an intensive month long session with Magic Johnson. He's in the ****tiest possible situation yet still put up 21 a game on 53.5 TS%
Al Jefferson's numbers each year:

6.7 points on 55.4% TS
7.9 points on 53.0% TS
16.0 points on 54.7% TS
21.0 points on 53.5% TS


Dwight Howard's numbers each year:

12.0 points on 57.1% TS
15.8 points on 56.5% TS
17.6 points on 61.9% TS
20.7 points on 61.9% TS


As you can see this isn't a one year thing. In 06-07 Howard didn't have Lewis and Turkoglu wasn't close to what he was in 07-08, yet Howard still put up similar numbers. And AJ had Paul Pierce the previous 3 years who is better than anyone Howard has ever played with.

And don't use age or inexperience to defend AJ because Howard came into the league a year younger.

This isn't a fluke or something that is a result of team situation. Howard will most likely be a 60+% TS guy for his entire career while AJ will be around 54-56%. Thats just their skill level imo.
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Old 06-24-2008, 02:55 AM   #13832
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

assani: the PP thing doesn't make sense, because PP's skillset is a detriment to AJ's post-up ability even if he is the best player either AJ or DH has played with.

if you guys are saying that if you had a choice of posting up Howard or posting up AJ and you'd take Howard, i say you're crazy. DH has a ton of skills, but creating with his back to the basket is not one of them. this (i believe) is KC's point
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Old 06-24-2008, 02:55 AM   #13833
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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But like Assani said though, if you think he's a reliable post scorer, that's pretty much just code for shoots a lot at an average efficiency. Dwight is worse than I originally thought because I didn't realize that he gives away over a turnover per game more than Al, which negates a lot of his efficiency advantage, but I don't think that simply stating that Al posts more makes him automatically a better offensive option, just different.
using the same logic, are Tyson Chandler and Andris Biedrins better offensive options than Dwight?

edit: also, it's pretty remarkable how low Big Al's TO rate is on such a woeful team.
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:05 AM   #13834
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

Tyson Chandler career usage rate: 14.1 (14.5 this year)
Andris Biedrins career usage rate: 13.5 (14.4 this year)
Dwight Howard career usage rate: 21.4 (24.2 this year)
Al Jefferson career usage rate: 24.2 (27.5 this year)

Come on, you're better than that.
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:11 AM   #13835
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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D12 is insaaaaanely turnover prone for someone who uses the ball so little. I hate using PER, but D12's is barely higher (.2) than Big Al's, and given how integral Big Al is to the T'Wolves offense (read: the most important) and how unimportant D12 is (read: a glorified Tyson Chandler), I'll take Big Al offensively.
I don't remember any of your other posts regarding the Celtics, but just today I've seen you say:

Al Jefferson>Dwight Howard on offense

and

Rajon Rondo is a top 50 valued player in the NBA




And that leads me to believe that you're a huge homer. What is it with the Celtics fans on this board???
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:15 AM   #13836
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Well, what do you mean by creating his own shot? Just because he does it with great body position to get an easy dunk instead of hitting a tough fall away doesn't mean he's not creating his own shot, it's just creating a different type of shot. I just find the whole creating his own shot argument to be dumb, and would much prefer to just look at how many shots a guy takes and how efficient he shoots them, everything else just leads to people picking and choosing which parts of a player's game to champion.

That is a good point about turnovers, those are way too high and probably increase his usage rate compared to Al, but obviously not in a positive way.
I agree with this entire shot, especially the bolded.

Who cares if a guy needs screeners(Reggie Miller) or needs someone to set him up(Howard) or just needs someone to throw him the ball(Jefferson)? As I said, I could understand the argument if Howard had a great PG and you were saying that if you took him away Howard wouldn't be as good. But Howard has average creators around him. Howard could do what he does with any teamates, so regardless of whether he creates the shots himself or not he will score and do it efficiently.
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:19 AM   #13837
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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assani: the PP thing doesn't make sense, because PP's skillset is a detriment to AJ's post-up ability even if he is the best player either AJ or DH has played with.

if you guys are saying that if you had a choice of posting up Howard or posting up AJ and you'd take Howard, i say you're crazy. DH has a ton of skills, but creating with his back to the basket is not one of them. this (i believe) is KC's point
Regarding Pierce....tbach was saying that the only reason why AJ's efficiency was low was due to the crappy conditions in Minny. I pointed out that before this year, Dwight didn't have it much better than AJ(if at all) yet his efficiency has always been higher.

Regarding what we're saying....I'm simply saying that I would rather have Dwight Howard on offense than AJ(this entire conversation started when I was comparing the Magic's current offense to Alex's in this league and I said that Dwight is better than AJ on offense). I never said anything about one-on-one moves or who I'd rather post up.
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:21 AM   #13838
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

turnovers are part of the usage equation. I think you're basically overrating someone who dunks and turns it over a ton, and that's about it. Dwight is awesome to have offensively mainly because he's a beast on the offensive glass and when he gets one, it's likely going right back up for a dunk where it's either 2 points or free throws. That's why he's valuable as hell. But despite his insane TS%, he's still taking 12 FGAs a game. That's why his ORtg is only 113. Very good, but not insane or anything. These are clear signs his offensive game is lacking some.

Say compared to Kevin Martin, who has similar TS% #s and FTA/gm, but still manages 15 FGAs.
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:21 AM   #13839
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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using the same logic, are Tyson Chandler and Andris Biedrins better offensive options than Dwight?

edit: also, it's pretty remarkable how low Big Al's TO rate is on such a woeful team.
WTF? Come on KC, you're way way way better than this. AJ's and Dwight's scoring averages are practically the same....

Dwight's is higher for his career

AJ's is 1.2 higher this past year when he was the go to guy(and the team suffered as a result)

If AJ had more help around him his average would probably be maybe 1.2 points lower but his efficiency higher



Thats way different than comparing AJ to guys who score way less than him and/or have great PGs to set them up and/or are never the focal point of the defense like Howard and AJ oftentimes are.
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:24 AM   #13840
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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turnovers are part of the usage equation. I think you're basically overrating someone who dunks and turns it over a ton, and that's about it. Dwight is awesome to have offensively mainly because he's a beast on the offensive glass and when he gets one, it's likely going right back up for a dunk where it's either 2 points or free throws. That's why he's valuable as hell. But despite his insane TS%, he's still taking 12 FGAs a game. That's why his ORtg is only 113. Very good, but not insane or anything. These are clear signs his offensive game is lacking some.

Say compared to Kevin Martin, who has similar TS% #s and FTA/gm, but still manages 15 FGAs.
AJ averaged 0.4 more offensive rebounds than Dwight this year.



And please stop looking at just FGA. Thats intellectually dishonest and you know it. Of course people who shy away from contact are going to have less FGAs on average than people who take it because when you get fouled and miss the shot, you don't get credit for a FGA. At the very least compare FGA + (FTA x 0.5). Thats a much better measuring stick.
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:24 AM   #13841
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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I do agree with this, but as I said to you earlier I think you can get away with not having great shooting if you have great penetrators at your wing spots because it still forces the defense to pay attention to them as the D simply can't be effective if its out of position when they start their drives. Otherwise, I definitely agree.
Yes but there are very few of these great penetrators in the entire league...like seriously very few (Wade, Ellis, Jordan and maybe a few others)
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I agree with this. And as I've said in a few posts above, I think people are misunderstanding what makes a great offense(I think you feel pretty much the same way I do that people are overrating having a bunch of bulk scorers with no real fit).
It's not even about bulk scorers, it's about having players who can space the floor and people who can create. You can't have a team of all creators, just like you can't have a team of all floor spacers who can't create, you need a balance (weighted more towards floor spacers since you really only need 2-3 creators per team).

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BTW...can Lebron actually play the point full time on offense? I don't mean like he does in real life; I mean full time PG. If so then I would've loved taking Bowen as your fifth starter. On offense it gives you another shooter, and you don't really need much else since your team is pretty set on offense with Lebron scoring and creating open shots for others. And it would obviously help on D...yeah you'd probably have to have Bowen guard the other team's PG, but hes shown he can do that when he defends Nash or Paul, right? You'd probably be "wasting" some of his defensive excellence by occassionally having him guarding guys like Rondo who are little threat, but overall I think it may work.
Lebron can def play the PG on offense no question, infact i'd have him play PG although i'd want someone to bring up the ball besides him just for the fact a team could put a great PG who can pressure the ball on him and it would def take energy out of Lebron

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IF you ignore that strategy, I think Hinrich would've been a better fit here.
Yes Hinrich is a lot better fit than Fat (as are a lot of other PG's)


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Makes sense to me, but exactly how many minutes is Lebron going to be sitting each game?
Again this is why Fat Lever is such a bad pick

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Agreed....didn't Grant have a decent midrange jumper though?
Maybe I don't recall it though, but then again I never really followed him



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Not sure I understand this. AK47 and McCray are very much "point forward" types. Moreover, are you saying that my PG is not a creator at all?
I was prob wrong in that AK47, McCray and ur PG can't create, however I don't think any of them are great off the ball players (and AK47 is horrible at it). Further I wouldn't want the ball in the "point fowards" hands over Penny/Duncan cause I think it's a huge win for the defense anytime AK47/McCray are trying to create for themselves/others instead of Duncan/Penny
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:30 AM   #13842
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Epipen's team:

1. I think you've raped people in trades. Picks have so much more value early on.

2. McHale and Martin and Bell were solid picks for sure. Like those a lot.

3. I think Deron Williams was just too much value to pass up for Billups, but I do understand your point about defense/3point shooting combo that Billups gives you. Still I think it was a mistake.

4. Deng is a tough one to call. YOu're 100% right that he goes much higher a year ago, but thats only because a year ago we thought he was still improving each and every year...and now we may have seen his peak already. Eh, its an ok pick but nothing special.

5. Perkins is ok imo...nothing special.



Personally I would've loved to see you address center earlier. Maybe Theo Ratliff instead of Deng. That would give you a starting 5 of:

Billups
Martin
Bell
McHale
Ratliff

I think thats a better team that what you have.


Overall I do like your team though. Defensively they're above average(but not elite at all). Offensively I think they're really solid and should work well together. Definitely a top 10 offense in this league, arguably even one of the best.
Wow I def think Deng can get better than he was last year (and even the year before). Infact if you look at his stats last year, they weren't even that much worse than his breakout year.

And I highly disagree with Ratliff over Deng. First off Deng is much better value. Second the combo of Deng+Perkins is much better than Ratliff+whoever I could have gotten in Perkins place and it's not even close.

And Perkins fits my team a lot better than Ratliff does as well (and Deng fits better than whoever I could have gotten later). I wanted a very good/great man to man defender so McHale didn't have to guard the hardest guy out of the PF/C on the other team (to save him from foul trouble/energy). While Ratliff was a great help defender, his man to man defense is worse than Perkins.

I also highly disagree that my team on defense is only slightly above average. My entire starting 5 are either all very good or elite defenders, I don't see how I could possibly only be slightly above average on defense.

Infact even though you claimed my offense was top 10 and arguably one of the best, I think my defense is even better (compared to the other teams in the league). I don't think you can say anyones defense is better than mine except for yours, seadoods and clarks and even then I think I have an argument for each one.
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:36 AM   #13843
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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turnovers are part of the usage equation. I think you're basically overrating someone who dunks and turns it over a ton, and that's about it. Dwight is awesome to have offensively mainly because he's a beast on the offensive glass and when he gets one, it's likely going right back up for a dunk where it's either 2 points or free throws. That's why he's valuable as hell. But despite his insane TS%, he's still taking 12 FGAs a game. That's why his ORtg is only 113. Very good, but not insane or anything. These are clear signs his offensive game is lacking some.

Say compared to Kevin Martin, who has similar TS% #s and FTA/gm, but still manages 15 FGAs.
I don't think anyone would argue that Kevin Martin isn't a better pure scorer than Dwight, it's just every other facet of the game that he gets owned in. But I mean, if you're going to quote ORtg and say that Dwight isn't that good, Al's is significantly worse this year, so I'm not sure what you're trying to prove. And if you want to point out that Al shoots more per game while only scoring 0.3 points per game more, than good job, I guess.
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:37 AM   #13844
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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I think some offenses will be better (the Kobe, Rashard, Big Al team comes to mind OTOH), but because of how good defenses are going to be, they won't look as good. IMO. Also, like seadood said, more depth.
+1
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:54 AM   #13845
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

In regards to the Al Jefferson/Dwight Howard offensive debate....

You can't really compare the 2, Al Jefferson scores by getting the ball in the post and has amazing post moves. He can set picks and run off the pick and roll too, but he isn't as effective.

Dwight Howard scores almost all his points off a pick and roll. You can't throw the ball to him like you can with Al Jefferson and have him abuse his man 1v1 (unless his man sucks on D)

The thing is, even though Howard's TS% and other percentages are great, it doesn't tell the whole story. The Magic really only pass to him when hes either a) open or b) has a mismatch.... Howard's TS% doesn't show the times his PG (or other players) are forced to make a play because the defense focus's on Howard.

This is why I think a stat like how effective the pick and roll's TS% was overall would have a better effect than just looking at Howard's TS% alone and ignoring the PG/other teammates effect on this play. TS% for Howard doesn't show when the PG/another player is forced to take a jump shot or create their own shot because Howard is being covered.

So on offense, I really don't think you can compare the 2 as it's a matter of preferance. If you are going to want a man you can feed the ball to on the lowblock, Al Jefferson is your man (his post moves really are amazing.) If you have a great PG and great shooters, and want to run the pick and roll, Howard is your man.

It really depends on what you want. In this league i'd personally rather Howard because you will easily be able to find a great PG (or another player for that matter, it doesn't have to be ur "pg" to run the pick and roll with) and be able to surround them with shooters. However if you don't have any real offensive weapons, i'd take Al Jefferson over Howard since you can throw him the ball and he can do his thing.
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:59 AM   #13846
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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Wow I def think Deng can get better than he was last year (and even the year before). Infact if you look at his stats last year, they weren't even that much worse than his breakout year.

And I highly disagree with Ratliff over Deng. First off Deng is much better value. Second the combo of Deng+Perkins is much better than Ratliff+whoever I could have gotten in Perkins place and it's not even close.

And Perkins fits my team a lot better than Ratliff does as well (and Deng fits better than whoever I could have gotten later). I wanted a very good/great man to man defender so McHale didn't have to guard the hardest guy out of the PF/C on the other team (to save him from foul trouble/energy). While Ratliff was a great help defender, his man to man defense is worse than Perkins.

I also highly disagree that my team on defense is only slightly above average. My entire starting 5 are either all very good or elite defenders, I don't see how I could possibly only be slightly above average on defense.

Infact even though you claimed my offense was top 10 and arguably one of the best, I think my defense is even better (compared to the other teams in the league). I don't think you can say anyones defense is better than mine except for yours, seadoods and clarks and even then I think I have an argument for each one.


A while ago I made a post that basically said that I could write 10 nice things about you and one criticism and you'd lash out at the criticism and never agree. You've basically done that here. You've ignored every good thing I said about your team, and you pretty much disagreed with EVERY SINGLE criticism I had about your team. I mean, your team isn't perfect, right? Surely you can admit that it has some faults.


I think you misunderstood my point about Deng.....

Some players come into the league and continually get better.

Others come into the league and get better for a while but then level off or even regress.

Heres a comparison:


Player #1
Year 1(18 years old): 7.6 points, 54.4% TS, 1.9 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.3 blocks

Year 2(19 years old): 15.4 points, 54.8% TS, 3.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.5 blocks

Year 3(20 years old): 19.9 points, 54.9% TS, 5.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.0 blocks


Player #2
Year 1(19 years old): 11.7 points, 49.6% TS, 5.3 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.4 blocks

Year 2(20 years old): 14.3 points, 51.7% TS, 6.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.6 blocks

Year 3(21 years old): 18.8 points, 56.0% TS, 7.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.6 blocks




If you were evaluating these players after three years, which would you rank higher? By how much would you rank him higher? Would you not expect both players to continue to get better? But then.....


Player 1
Year 4(21 years old): 22.5 points, 54.6% TS, 6.3 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.9 blocks


Player 2
Year 4(22 years old): 17.0 points, 52.8% TS, 6.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.5 blocks




The players are Kobe Bryant and Luol Deng. As you can see, Deng had an extremely promising career arc after 3 years....the fact that hes even comparable to Kobe Bryant is a huge compliment to him. Yet while Kobe continued to improve, Deng has seemingly hit a plateau(actually gotten worse).


I would most definitely prop bet that Deng never betters 5 out of 6 of the stats listed in any one season for the rest of his career(better than his 3rd season I'm saying). Obviously I wouldn't want to prop bet for 15 years, so I'd say within the next 5 years. Would kinda suck to lose any money on interest by having it in escrow though, so not sure I'm really serious about this or not.




I also think you're greatly underestimating Ratliff. The guy was a stud on defense. On offense he put up 11 points on 56% TS in his prime, which is not an offensive zero at all.



Regarding your team on defense:


1. I'm assuming that you're going to play Martin 30 minutes per game at least, so the whole "my starting 5" argument is bogus imo. You have to factor Martin in, and if you're not going to play him major minutes then thats a wasted 3rd round draft pick.

2. I never said that they were ONLY SLIGHTLY above average. I said above average period. I did say they weren't elite though(which I take to mean top 3 or 4 in the entire draft).

3. Love Billups as a defender, but its not an important defensive position at all imo.

4. I don't dislike your defense....again, please stop taking offense to every little criticism. I just don't think its as good as people who took elite defensive big men like Rasheed/Chandler or AK47/Duncan or KG/Laimbeer or Zo/Buck....and I think post defense is vital.
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Old 06-24-2008, 04:03 AM   #13847
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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The thing is, even though Howard's TS% and other percentages are great, it doesn't tell the whole story. The Magic really only pass to him when hes either a) open or b) has a mismatch.... Howard's TS% doesn't show the times his PG (or other players) are forced to make a play because the defense focus's on Howard.
I'm confused by this......you say that as if its a bad thing!

When the defenses key on Howard leaving the PG with more space to make a play for himself, THATS A GOOD THING THAT HOWARD ACCOMPLISHED.

So if Howard has a better TS% and he accomplishes this then thats even more reason why he should be considered better than AJ.
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Old 06-24-2008, 04:10 AM   #13848
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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It really depends on what you want. In this league i'd personally rather Howard because you will easily be able to find a great PG (or another player for that matter, it doesn't have to be ur "pg" to run the pick and roll with) and be able to surround them with shooters. However if you don't have any real offensive weapons, i'd take Al Jefferson over Howard since you can throw him the ball and he can do his thing.
I agree with a lot of this, but I'm still much more pro Dwight.....


I think that if you have other scorers, its a no brainer to take Howard. I do agree that its a lot closer if you have other scorers....but do you really think Dwight wouldn't be able to put up 17+ points on 58+% TS on pretty much any team in the NBA? And with teams in our league, I think he'd be able to put up 19 points and 60%TS really....I'm just not seeing a big droppoff in his numbers no matter who his teamates are. Hes just a special player imo.

Like I said, last year he didn't have Rashard Lewis and hedo was nowhere near a star, yet he still put up a TS% of 61!
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Old 06-24-2008, 04:15 AM   #13849
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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A while ago I made a post that basically said that I could write 10 nice things about you and one criticism and you'd lash out at the criticism and never agree. You've basically done that here. You've ignored every good thing I said about your team, and you pretty much disagreed with EVERY SINGLE criticism I had about your team. I mean, your team isn't perfect, right? Surely you can admit that it has some faults.
I didn't "lash out", I didn't just feel like saying ok I agree with what you said we already agreed on again.

Of course my team has faults, but I don't think you highlighted them imo. My team imo is a very good/great offensive team and a very good/great defensive team....it's faults are that a) it takes a good 3 years for it to become this (especially on offense), b) it's not a great passing team although they don't turn the ball over much at all and c) it's somewhat weak on the rebounding but I think McHale/Perkins are both better rebounders than stats suggest and Deng can help out too, regardless they aren't in the top 10-15 teams in this league in rebounding.

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I think you misunderstood my point about Deng.....

Some players come into the league and continually get better.

Others come into the league and get better for a while but then level off or even regress.

Heres a comparison:


Player #1
Year 1(18 years old): 7.6 points, 54.4% TS, 1.9 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.3 blocks

Year 2(19 years old): 15.4 points, 54.8% TS, 3.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.5 blocks

Year 3(20 years old): 19.9 points, 54.9% TS, 5.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.0 blocks


Player #2
Year 1(19 years old): 11.7 points, 49.6% TS, 5.3 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.4 blocks

Year 2(20 years old): 14.3 points, 51.7% TS, 6.6 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.6 blocks

Year 3(21 years old): 18.8 points, 56.0% TS, 7.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.6 blocks




If you were evaluating these players after three years, which would you rank higher? By how much would you rank him higher? Would you not expect both players to continue to get better? But then.....


Player 1
Year 4(21 years old): 22.5 points, 54.6% TS, 6.3 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.9 blocks


Player 2
Year 4(22 years old): 17.0 points, 52.8% TS, 6.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.5 blocks




The players are Kobe Bryant and Luol Deng. As you can see, Deng had an extremely promising career arc after 3 years....the fact that hes even comparable to Kobe Bryant is a huge compliment to him. Yet while Kobe continued to improve, Deng has seemingly hit a plateau(actually gotten worse).


I would most definitely prop bet that Deng never betters 5 out of 6 of the stats listed in any one season for the rest of his career(better than his 3rd season I'm saying). Obviously I wouldn't want to prop bet for 15 years, so I'd say within the next 5 years. Would kinda suck to lose any money on interest by having it in escrow though, so not sure I'm really serious about this or not.




I also think you're greatly underestimating Ratliff. The guy was a stud on defense. On offense he put up 11 points on 56% TS in his prime, which is not an offensive zero at all.
Obv I am not going to say Deng will put up 5 outa the 6 years better than his break out year, but he def has a good chance to continue to improve, and even his "bad" year last year wasn't much worse than his breakout year was.


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Originally Posted by Assani Fisher View Post
Regarding your team on defense:


1. I'm assuming that you're going to play Martin 30 minutes per game at least, so the whole "my starting 5" argument is bogus imo. You have to factor Martin in, and if you're not going to play him major minutes then thats a wasted 3rd round draft pick.
Yes of course, but there is almost always one weak/just straight shooter out of the PG/SG/SF on any team, and he will be guarding them so it won't be a huge deal. On a team who has great offensive players at all 3 of these positions he will see less minutes.

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Originally Posted by Assani Fisher View Post
2. I never said that they were ONLY SLIGHTLY above average. I said above average period. I did say they weren't elite though(which I take to mean top 3 or 4 in the entire draft).
eh i'd really love to hear a teams defense u think is better than mine (not including seadood, clarks or yours)

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3. Love Billups as a defender, but its not an important defensive position at all imo.
You aren't the first person to say this, and I am really confused. I agree PG is the "least important defensive position" but jesus it is still important. There are a ton of great PG's who need to be guarded.

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Originally Posted by Assani Fisher View Post
4. I don't dislike your defense....again, please stop taking offense to every little criticism. I just don't think its as good as people who took elite defensive big men like Rasheed/Chandler or AK47/Duncan or KG/Laimbeer or Zo/Buck....and I think post defense is vital.
This is where I think you underrate both McHale/Perkins...while neither of these are as good as the defensive bigmen you listed above, they aren't that much worse. And my wing/pg defenders are much better than most of those combos you listed (and people are really underrating wing/pg defenders).

I mean seriously, i'm not going to argue wing/pg defenders are as important as bigman defenders because they aren't, but they are still very important.
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Old 06-24-2008, 04:16 AM   #13850
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Re: Modern Era NBA Build a Franchise Draft Discussion

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I'm not really sure I'm understanding this "OMG Alex's team is so great on offense" mindset. A comparison between Alex's team's first year(age 24 seasons) and this year's Orlando Magic:

-Rashard Lewis of the Magic>>>Rashard Lewis at 24
TS% was only 52.7 at 24...basically he was an inefficient chucker. This year he got it all the way up to 59.1%. All his bulk numbers were pretty similar.


-Hedo Turkoglu<<<<<<Kobe at 24
Hedo had a great year, but yeah Kobe is Kobe. Still on offense alone, Hedo was pretty damn good this year putting up 19.5 points on 57.6% TS.


-Dwight Howard>>>Al Jefferson
They scored about the same number of points, but Dwight had a TS% of 61.9 while AJ's was only 53.5. I was very surprised to see that their offensive rebounds were similar though, as I was expecting Dwight to be way ahead(in fact, AJ is actually ahead here!!)




Ugh...just realized that I can't go any further due to undrafted players on the Magic. But, as you can see the Magic win 2/3 of the matchups here and they're more efficient in each of them. And Alex's other starters are Dalembert and Hinrich, neither of whom is an offensive fireworkhouseboy.

Now I'm not saying that the Magic are better on offense than Alex's team. In fact, I'd gladly admit that Alex's team is better. However, its at least comparable, no? And the Magic were only 7th in offensive rating this year.
Well, I think that when people are analyzing teams, they are discussing them throughout the length of the league or at least during the players' true primes, not specifically the first year. Going along with that, if the Magic traded Hedo for Kobe they win the title, and with the similarity of the other two comparisons, I'm not sure what your point is. I don't think anyone is saying that my team is far and away better than the best offense of today or even the best offense in this league, as I think there are a few, like Bobbo's, nath's, and tbach's, that are right up there. Also, it's probably easy to single mine out because the people who drafted superstar scorers ahead of me like Jordan and Lebron went with defensive players after that while I took all offense with my first three picks.
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