Craig Kimbrel - 86% of GDP for the rest of his natural life

Ignoring steroids I never would even consider that Manny wouldn't be a first ballot HOFer.


What about Omar Vizquel's candidacy?

That will be an interesting one.

He really should have tried to play another 4 seasons to get those last 123 hits to get to 3k.

Holland topped out at 88, so pretty fair to say he's finished. Not sure why he's even being discussed

I think it should be an easy no. He was a much worse version of Ozzie Smith (worse hitter and worse fielder), and I don't see Smith as about the average HOF SS, so Vizquel misses for me by a lot. As much of an issue as there is with AAS and MVP selection process, the fact he made three AS games and only once got any MVP votes (to finish 16th), should be an auto-ding.

That said, I think he has a better shot than he should as I could see some writers voting for him as a sort of anti-steriod guy.

writers love ortiz and totally ignore his ped use. manny failed two drug tests and they don't like him.

People talk about Manny's bad defense, but I thought he did an excellent job playing the wall in Fenway. On the road not so much, but at home he was just as good if not better than anybody else who has ever played left in Fenway.

/eyebrows

jeff zimmerman just posted this on the royals sb nation site

drafted starting pitchers by WAR for each team since 2007 (no int'l)

not great bob!

I don't get what that is showing. TB drafted Price. Is it current team?

Seeing as how teams in the bottom third of that table have won nearly every World Series in that time frame, I'm going to take a stab that drafting starting pitching isnt as important as one might assume.

Isn't it just drafting pitching period? Are players really defined as starters/relievers prior to the draft?

Ninja editing for misunderstood context

ugh looks like vlad is gonna get in first ballot

costing me money

No he isn't. Don't worry.

What kind of action do you have? I'll take a % of the risk and put my money where my mouth is.

I assume you're basing this off Ryan Thibodeaux's spreadsheet? If it helps you sleep, non-public votes tend to be more conservative wrt first-timers and (alleged) steroid users. He, plus Bonds and Clemens seem pretty likely to lose a few once the other 2/3 of the votes land.

Think Bagwell, Pudge and Raines are comfortably in, but i woulnd't be surprised if that was it.

Im pretty sure clayton kershaw has 50+ war and was drafted by the dodgers

I'm not sure how you could say Raines will be comfortably in.

Edgar has to get in this year right?

Nope, but he is projecting like he might have a 50% chance of making it in his 10th year (currently in his 8th but making good gains).

If 3 can go in this year (Raines, Bagwell, Pudge) and another 3-4 next year (Hoffman, Chipper, Bonds, Clemens, Vlad) then the him and Rivera will go in in 2019 as the ballot frees up. And maybe Schilling will gain some support back and not say anything stupid on Twitter to be back on the fringe.

This is how. Polling over 90% through 146 ballots. https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?...E2Lu5P1f92OW8o

It's unlikely this year imo, but the same crowd that's pushed so hard for Raines the past few years are going to push equally hard for Edgar these next two years. Not sure what the next two classes look like but he seems to be a lot of people's 8th-12th choice, so as long as multiple people get in this year (and next year I guess) there should be room enough on the ballots for him in one of the next two years.

Which suggests that the Dodgers have gotten -48 out of all non-Kershaws? That can't be right haha.

Edgar took steroids

I don't gaf if he doesn't make it

Boone returns and Edgar pops 37 bombs in safeco at 38 years old? Come on, we can admit it.

Lol anyone who doesn't think manny and papi are HOFers. I generally hate in game/series/season narratives but if you look at papis career w context he's clearly in. A lot of people, the stupid ones mostly, start talking about if Edgar or BLANK aren't in then we have to continue making bad decisions or else past bad decisions will look like bad decisions....y'all know who you are and you should feel bad. And I legit don't know what to say about whoever said they're OK W MANNY BEING LEFT OUT. Wut? Has the numbers, the WAR, prob his weakest argument but still favors his case, longevity and was a STAR.

I pay little attention to HOF cus it felt like an olde and archaic thing when I was 8 and could get most of the same info from the busts as I could from a baseball card. Now that we have fangraphs bref and other sites it makes Cooperstown seem like a silly museum for kids who's parents aren't cool enough to get them a smartphone. So, I don't care if the hall burns down and Papi Barry roger and manny get blacklisted forever but wanted to point out some of the lol posts as being illogical

Rack him