Midseason NFL Dynasty Draft Thread. - Page 22 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

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11-21-2013 , 07:34 PM

#526

Jake7777

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Is it against the rules to point out that when healthy Gronk's receiving numbers have been better than Graham's also?

Gronk also did actually put up elite WR numbers at the TE position in 2011

Really the only thing that takes Gronk down is health, and that's obviously a legit argument

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11-21-2013 , 07:36 PM

#527

A-Rod's Cousin

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Graham's numbers (as a tight end) are way better than Harvin's (as a WR) yet nobody **** on the Harvin pick.

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11-21-2013 , 07:37 PM

#528

Jake7777

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Quote:

Originally Posted by A-Rod's Cousin

Graham's numbers (as a tight end) are way better than Harvin's (as a WR) yet nobody **** on the Harvin pick.

yes they did

Quote

11-21-2013 , 07:39 PM

#529

TalkingDonkey

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Quote:

Originally Posted by A-Rod's Cousin

Graham's numbers (as a tight end) are way better than Harvin's (as a WR) yet nobody **** on the Harvin pick.

wat

read the thread, it was immediately **** on

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11-21-2013 , 07:40 PM

#530

horrorshow83

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Something was mentioned on Graham's speed. He was a 4.5 guy, IIRC.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Assani Fisher

my rankings/tiers of WR/TEs draft so far

1. Calvin

2. Green
3. Dez
4. Julio(would be #3 without the injury)

5. Graham
6. Gronk
7. Demaryius

8. Gordon
9. Marshall
10. Harvin

Your top-5 looks right. I'm going Marshall at 6 or 7, only because Gronk's had more surgeries than most Pats fans on this board have had BJs in the last year.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Assani Fisher

Receptions
2011 NFL 99 (3)
2013 NFL 60 (7)

Receiving Yds
2011 NFL 1310 (7)
2013 NFL 846 (9)

Receiving TD
2011 NFL 11 (4)
2013 NFL 10 (2)
Active 35 (30)

Receiving Yds/Game
2011 NFL 81.9 (7)
Active 62.4 (22)
Career 62.4 (46)

Touchdowns
2011 NFL 11 (10)
2013 NFL 10 (3)

If we are totally eliminating blocking and just looking at him as a WR then I don't think these stats would make him top 5(especially considering the QB he is playing with).

Consider that Graham is also not top-25 in targets this year. He was 21st last year. 2011 was the only year he was top-5.

His catch rate is down this year and last from the 2010 and 2011 seasons, but the EPA/P and success rates are way up. Graham is in the class of great right now and getting better. The 99-catch year was a lot of hitches and quick outs; the deep targets are rising and so are the yards per target to wideout levels.

This is looking like an 80-1150-12 season, despite missing a game, with career highs in YPC/YPT, SR%, and EPA/P. There are still things "coming together" for him, but they're coming together.

Quote:

Originally Posted by tweedybirdd

Comparing bulk stats is usually pretty meh, but comparing bulk stats across positions and drawing conclusions is worse. Most WR's never pass block, while Graham does on a few plays a game. He runs fewer routes than the high usage WR's so obv he's not going to lead the league in yards. He was 8th in yards per route in '11 and is 3rd this year. The only guy ahead of him either year that draws close to the attention he does is Megatron. Graham might be the toughest matchup itl. Sure Gronk is a more accomplished blocker, but he has had a ton of injury issues since college and isn't quite the athlete that Graham is. I would probably take Gronk if durability isn't considered because he has better hands and is a better blocker. Graham is still a lock top 5 receiving option. Certainly not ridiculous to consider him as high as 2 or 3 itl

Great post. "As high as 2 or 3" is a huge stretch that makes me Green/Dez/Julio tho. He is more a matchup nightmare, so I can see where you're coming from, as a (BASKETBALL TERM ALERT!) go-to guy.

Quote:

Originally Posted by moorobot

Well Gronk might be drinking booze out of his own leg next season. But since the relatively high chance of this is still less than the chances of him being the greatest non-QB TD creating machine of all time I'll take my chances.

People bolded the end of the phrase without including "the chances of". Kind of a big omission.

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11-21-2013 , 07:41 PM

#531

BillNye

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Also Percy hasn't exactly had a Brees type QB throwing him the ball lately... He put up a QBR of 100+ w/ a TERRIBLE QB.

And nobody thinks Percy was a similar value to Graham anyways. I think we're all pretty much all in agreement on the top 4 WRs + 2 TEs were the best 6 receiving options.

Quote

11-21-2013 , 07:44 PM

#532

horrorshow83

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Next ten picks:

Round 4:
TuT
disko

Round 5:
disko
TuT
GS37 + sixfour
NLSoldier
Assani
BillNye
Nez
Noze

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11-21-2013 , 07:46 PM

#533

BillNye

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VC's got 45m left on his clock.

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11-21-2013 , 07:48 PM

#534

diskoteque

Joey Local

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 30,420

im here

dont have time for writeups but will be rdy with my two picks

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11-21-2013 , 07:49 PM

#535

loK2thabrain

Tiger > Jack

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 23,204

Quote:

Originally Posted by NLSoldier

this has to be the longest/fastest pick run to ever start a draft in 2p2 history. especially if you consider the selecting of draft slots to be picks.

nice work bros.

Eh, I'd rather it go slower with people actually doing write-ups. I know we already know about these guys for the most part but a draft without them feels kind of....empty.

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11-21-2013 , 07:53 PM

#536

Assani Fisher

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Quote:

Reply With Quote Multi-Quote This Message Quick reply to this message
Unread Today, 03:49 PM #535
loK2thabrain
Tiger > Jack

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Quote:
Originally Posted by NLSoldier View Post
this has to be the longest/fastest pick run to ever start a draft in 2p2 history. especially if you consider the selecting of draft slots to be picks.

nice work bros.
Eh, I'd rather it go slower with people actually doing write-ups. I know we already know about these guys for the most part but a draft without them feels kind of....empty.

I can see why it'd be worse for observers, but I think its a lot more fun for participants. And its not like the writeups have been completely non-existent....they've said enough to spur discussion.

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11-21-2013 , 07:58 PM

#537

Das Boot

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Quote:

Originally Posted by SteelersDMW

This is such a dumb argument come on guys this draft is going well no need to aids it up

Disagree strongly that these kinds of arguments AIDS up the draft, think this argument's been pretty good.

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11-21-2013 , 07:59 PM

#538

SarcasticRat

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Yeah as an observer this argument has been like the most interesting part of the draft (and is basically the entire purpose of these drafts).

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11-21-2013 , 08:17 PM

#539

SteelersDMW

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Das Boot

Disagree strongly that these kinds of arguments AIDS up the draft, think this argument's been pretty good.

Alright fine I just saw a lot of arguing back and forth about **** that seemed pretty petty to me but carry on my bad

fwiw i think that having one of Gronk/Graham and the elite WR is > than having 2 great WR.

I think the top 6 recieving threats should be ranked like this (IF GUARANTEED NO INJURIES)

mega
AJ
Gronk
Dez
Julio
Jimmay

Last edited by SteelersDMW; 11-21-2013 at 08:22 PM.

Quote

11-21-2013 , 08:19 PM

#540

KDebo

old hand

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 1,907

There haven't been too many picks that are worthy of discussion. Maybe if Watt went to high or not, and if Rivers was a good pick, and now wrt Graham. It should heat up once teams get more of a showing of how they will look

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11-21-2013 , 08:21 PM

#541

TalkingDonkey

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yeah the picks have been fairly straightforward, which kind of dulls the discussion when nobody gets out of line or gambles it up.

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11-21-2013 , 08:23 PM

#542

Nez477

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We will always have "12"

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11-21-2013 , 08:23 PM

#543

SuperUberBob

Not interesting enough

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 48,217

Round 2, Pick 23 write-up

Aldon Smith

The two most important things in the NFL these days are passing and stopping the pass.

Behind Von Miller, Aldon Smith may very well be the best edge rusher in the NFL today. He broke Reggie White's record by getting to 30 sacks in just 27 games. He then broke another one of White's records by getting 31.5 sacks in his first two seasons despite not even being a starter in his rookie season. At 24 years old, we get Aldon for his entire prime in this simulation.

QB - RG III
OLB - Aldon Smith
OT - Trent Williams

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11-21-2013 , 08:25 PM

#544

Thamel18

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Nez477

We will always have "12"

You stop.

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11-21-2013 , 08:25 PM

#545

Victor Cruz

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Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 4,110

I don't have much time so I'm just going to make a pick of a guy I think is good overall value.

24 years old, perennial pro bowl starter since rookie year, huge winner and plays on a great defense. Also a high pedigree guy who should still have some upside as he was taken 5th overall.

QB: Andrew Luck (24)
MLB: Luke Kuechly (22)
SS: Eric Berry (24)

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11-21-2013 , 08:35 PM

#546

gs3737

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Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 4,449

Quote:

Originally Posted by Victor Cruz

I don't have much time so I'm just going to make a pick of a guy I think is good overall value.

Good pick, he was on our short list.

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11-21-2013 , 08:37 PM

#547

TalkingDonkey

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Nice timing: http://regressing.deadspin.com/how-j...ium=socialflow

Quote:

Other tight ends aren't that close behind. Per Football Outsiders, Graham has 214 Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, making him the most valuable tight end in the league. (UNDRAFTED is in second, with 167 DYAR.) In fact, it makes him one of the most valuable tight ends of the past 20 years.

Quote:

But if we're going to pit Graham against all receivers, it's not quite fair to hold him to replacement level tight end play. Schatz was nice enough to help give us some context here. He took Graham's numbers and plugged them into the WR database—basically telling us how his numbers would look alongside WRs. As it turns out, it might not be quite as impressive as you think.

As a wide receiver, Graham's 214 DYAR so far this year translates to 183, which would put him 15th overall for wide receivers. That projects to 293 for the season, which would have had him 13th in the league, between UNDRAFTED and UNDRAFTED. That's good, but obviously not as transcendent as he's been compared to other tight ends.

Last edited by TalkingDonkey; 11-21-2013 at 08:43 PM.

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11-21-2013 , 08:39 PM

#548

Jake7777

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edit - Slow copy and pasting pony

Quote:

For added context, Schatz also ran the numbers on Gronk's inhuman 2011 season compared to WRs that year. His 462 DYAR as a tight end rolls over to 435 as a wideout, which would be top 5 that year and top-40 all time for wide receivers, but well behind the best seasons in history. (It's worth noting that Michael Irvin is a beast in these advanced stats, and in his best seasons was used as a chains-moving monster in a pseudo-tight-end role.)