Quote:
Originally Posted by RacersEdge
if you are trying to figure out what a team % chance of winning a game was, just because they lost the game doesn't change that %.
You're arguing something different, but it's still not entirely true if you're referring to percentages based on Vegas lines. We've talked about this recently in the NBA thread, pre-game percentages are based on information available at the time. 2004 NBA Finals and the Patriots/Giants Super Bowl are two great examples of percentages that would change dramatically based on the information we have now.
Before the Steelers/Cardinals SB, many thought the Cards were just running extremely hot and were going to be completely outmatched. I wouldn't be surprised if there true win percentage was much higher than was reflected in Vegas before the game.
The coin flip analogy doesn't hold because new information doesn't change the 50/50 percentage. It's not so simple in sports.