hes not on roids now.

I couldn't help already place a bet on him and I guess it is official that for the first time since 99 I won't be rooting against him...

I think the only rider who has shown anything near Armstrong level is Contador and he might very well end up being his teammate.
And I don't think with Armstrong confirming that he is indeed going for the win that there will be any doubt who the team will have to ride for.

Riders like Menchov, Evans or Sastre... Even if Armstrong is say 80 percent of what he used to they don't really stand a chance.
Especially not on the time trials where I expect him to be as strong as ever. Many older riders have stayed strong in that event.
It's much more the mountains which will be a worry and where a lot of older great riders eventually started to struggle.
Will he still have that accelaration normaly only reserved for mountain specialists?
Even if he doesn't, with a strong time trial and with a strong team he could still win.

The actual course will be very interesting. How many mountain top finishes and how many time trial kilometers?

Eventhough I think it would be awesome, unfortunately I don't think Basso will ride the tour so the biggest threat would be CSC and just how much further Andy Schleck will have improved for next year.

I don't know about him tarnishing his legacy. It's a complicated question and the answer probably depend on what camp you're in.
If you're an Armstrong hater or a fan boy.
I think the haters will see almost anything as negative.
If he doesn't win they'll claim that he couldn't win clean and if he does win they'll say that he is destroying the sport by bringing doping back just as things were getting cleaner.
Especially in the cycling community he just divides people.

For me just about the only obvious tarnish would be if he got caught doping which would be shocking.

I think it's very possible that for the first time he will be riding clean and that is something which is a major reason why he is coming back.
He sees what has happened in cycling and he sees a great opportunity.
A historic opportunity where it's possible for the first time in recent cycling history to win the Tour de France clean.
Especially for him of all people, the most accused tour winner ever, that's just something he can't resist.
If he wins this, clean, with everything out there for everyone to see, then in his mind he will have "won history" so to speak and erased whatever black marks on his legacy.
Even those who rightly so will say that he was still using doping when he first won will not able to deny that he now really has proved that he is the best.
They can't just say, oh he only won because he was cheating, which is ridiculous anyway but something which Armstrong unfortunately only have been able to fight with lies. Now for the first time ever he can fight it where he fights best, on his bike.
Telling the truth would destroy his legacy in the mind of the ignorant majority but now 2009 a unique possibility, which did not exist ten years ago, presents itself and he can do something which he has never done before, win without doping.

this is very very cool and i'm excited.

I cant help but think he has to be worried about corrupt people conducting doping tests during the races..

good post bjorn, that last paragraph is spot on imo.

also, where did u bet on lance?

Quite a few don't offer it yet it seems but among euros:

Ladbrokes had the best I could find at 15.00 decimal and that should be +1400 american odds

Unibet +1200 Bet365 just +650 but still obviously through the roof better than before he won his last one.

Have no idea about the american ones.

Of course the biggest fear is if his team won't even get to ride but I mean he just has to.
I just can't see ASO going that far.

There's a good chance that he won't be allowed to take part in the tour since he's so dirty and the director would like to never go back to the Armstrong years.

The idea that he could win a clean tour is beyond ridiculous as he's now 37, has not been riding for three years and the elite riders are for sure still cheating.

But seeing him leaving the TOUR after failing a drug test or being caught another way (most likely) would be so awesome.

This is very well put. I think I agree with this 100%, but would like to add (you are kind of saying this, I think) that I don't think one has to believe Armstrong won his tours without doping to believe that he is a great rider, one of the (maybe the) absolute best, who truly lived and breathed the tour and respected its traditions to the utmost and deserves respect as a great champion. I'm utterly convinced that he was doping for at least part of his career and feel this way.

If he comes back with Astana, though, I feel for Contador. He likely would've won this year and, even though I think he will be faster than Armstrong, his chances for 2009 are certainly hurt by this, and he may even be expected to ride for Armstrong unless/until he's got better chances. He's had a somewhat unlucky career, I think. Worst would be if Astana got excluded very late as a way to keep Armstrong out and Contador didn't get to ride.

Just for you, I hope he wins going away, since "he's so dirty".

So you think Sastre and Evans used doping this year?

Of course I can't say they weren't 100 percent but I have a hard time seeing it.
Maybe some time in early season training to build up condition but even there doctors have unlimited access to every thinkable number.
It's not even about catching them in a test anymore.
As soon as somekind of indicator of doping is found actions are taken. CSC started working with a doctor who was a big critic of the sport and he is monitoring each rider all season. Other teams have followed suit.
They have to in order to survive.

This was the first tour I can remember where the riders who you could clearly see where on another level, were also caught. Blood doping is detectable. EPO is detectable even new forms or generations of EPO like CERA which Ricco was caught with.

It's naive to think doping is gone obviously and throughout the season it's still being used no doubt but I think taking everything into consideration that realistically this years tour was exceptionally clean compared to previous years.

But fwiw if it's still widespread among the top riders and Armstrong will be teammate with the last for certain doped tour winner Contador, so he will know what's going on, then I'm certain he will prepare himself for that just like he did all the other times he won.
I just don't think he would be coming back if that was the case.

This would be so cool. If he's not on Astana. He's close with Hincapie. Would be great if he joined Columbia! Armstrong vs Astana! Oh, let's hope so!

Lance Armstrong is back on the bike...question is will he win the tour in 09?

that is the question indeed and somebody already made a thread about this http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/46...meback-294848/

Jesus it would suck to ride a mountain bike 100 miles.

This would suck. It would be like when Vino was unable to ride because 5 of the 9 riders on his team were found to be dopers. Of course, he was discovered to dope later as well, but I believe he would have won that tour (the Landis one) if they let him go (probably with just three teammates because he was that damn strong). Or at least I like to think, because I love me some Vino.

Not real excited about a return to the Lance's dick sucking that Versus will subject us to for 3 weeks, but it should make for an intriguing race. Lance is/was a beast, I just wonder if he will still be able to keep up with the newer wave of riders through the mountains, like the Schlecks and others.

Those who lost their money betting against him in the NY Marathon should know to not bet against him. I am just waiting for him to state his goal--whatever he says, I will believe will happen.

What was his goal in the marathon? I mean he's an excellent endurance athlete so I have no doubt that he could finish. Without looking at results, though, I'm sure he couldn't have been that close to the top. Riding a bike well = being born in Kenya/Ethiopia.

Run under 3h. He finished in 2:59 and some change.

I remember many loading up their money on the over and losing.

The director of the TDF was making pretty positive noises about a possible Armstrong return today, although I would expect that any movement to keep him out would be kept in the background until it was too late next spring. I'm much more confident that it can actually happen today than I was yesterday.

The other thing: I'm one of those who got burned betting against Armstrong in the marathon. I bet him over 3 hours and he came in in like 2:59:40 or something. Other people got him under 3:10 and cleaned up.

Today Ladbrokes is +350 and Unibet +400

Also in cycling there have been a lot of advances in measuring power on the bike. What you can produce.
Very soon if not already he will have a very good idea of what he can do in the Tour.
Numbers that will tell him how fast he’ll be able to climb certain key uphill finishes, and how that compares to the competition. Also what he can do in time trials.
The question is if those numbers at some point indicate that winning may not be realistic, will he then still ride?
Personally I think with him being such a sicko perfectionist that he already knows that his power numbers match up very well with the current competition.
Otherwise he wouldn't even have thought of coming out of retirement. Let alone stating so clearly he was riding to win.

I know the guy had cancer and is a tremendous example of determination, but...

What a narcissistic attention whore. And he probably cheated.

He used a lot of different doping but I don't think he cheated anyone.

You could say some naive fans. At least to begin with but even that considering everything I can't really buy into.

Lol. That should have been !=. 3 hrs is impressive. I don't know if I could do it in 3 days.

Attention whore? Not hardly. I put that <1%.

Competition whore? Absolutely.

I think he's probably not someone I'd hang out with. He has a douchebag quality about him. But you can't deny he's an awesome athlete. And since NO ONE is caring about cycling without him, it will be very good for the sport if he does try. But it's gonna suck if he comes in 12th place or something.

I did give him a little credit for his cameo in Dodgeball. That was funny.