Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb - Page 877 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

We all know Kellen Moore is the scapegoat here. JJ isn't throwing away $8 mil that's owed to McCarthy over 2 years. Especially when he pretty much knows Dak isn't a Superbowl caliber QB anyway, and they are likely going to go after a QB in the draft.

Quote

01-31-2023 , 05:05 PM

#21903

PokerHero77

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 5,800

Quote:

Originally Posted by jwd

Nobody will talk about this, but this is a mistake coaches consistently make.

1st & 10 at CIN 33
(0:56 - 4th) (Shotgun) J.Burrow pass short right to H.Hurst to CIN 35 for 2 yards (J.Reid).
(0:48 - 4th) Timeout #2 by CIN at 00:48.

Chiefs have two timeouts. Bengals have two timeouts.

Calling a timeout here opens up the possibility of letting the Chiefs win in regulation. The benefit for the Bengals' FG chances is marginal.

Let the clock roll and snap it with ~35 seconds. That's a ton of time at your own 35 with two timeouts. Also a hurry up benefits the offense more than the defense. The timeout gave the Chiefs defense a chance to catch their breath.

Not hindsight as I thought it was a mistake in the moment.

Agree 100%

No huddle in these situations big advantage for offense. IMO running the ball with 0:56 and 2 TOs, followed up by no huddle pass would be ideal. At least those were my thoughts at the moment. Screen almost as good.

You get the wrong defensive personnel either way. And you consume enough clock for the opposing team to have less chance to drive. You also avoid the sack/negative yardage situation (which is what happened). The key there is moving the chains, consuming enough clock, but not so much that you are trying a 65 yard FG. In reality CIN only needed 3 first downs. This is another case where you do what the defense is most fearful of: getting short gains and first downs.

Pass then run does not work as well because of chance of INC stopping clock leaves more clock for opposing team.

This is typically when defenses fake injuries, to get the correct personnel on the field and stop the clock (temporarily, at least).

Quote

01-31-2023 , 05:17 PM

#21904

PokerHero77

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 5,800

That, and CIN was 58% to win game on that down. Indicator that you are a substantial favorite to win and you probably don't need to do anything overly risky.

Quote

01-31-2023 , 05:58 PM

#21905

iversonian

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2003 Posts: 21,441

i was reading the game thread on reddit and some people correctly called out the bad timeout by CIN. but some replies were like, but they converted the 3rd and 16! results oriented thinking.

also, people were too critical of shanny's clock management in the previous week. it wasn't ideal, but that's the direction you want to err.

Quote

02-01-2023 , 12:22 AM

#21906

PokerHero77

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 5,800

Quote:

Originally Posted by cneuy3

Your team is down by one score or less than one score and has the ball with less than five minutes in the game and punts at some point.

I'd love to know which coach holds the record here but I'd have to imagine McCarthy is up there near the top of the list.

Since 2001, drives ending in punt when down 1-8 points, with drive ending 5 minutes or less in regulation.

Code:

Rank	Coach	      Drives    Punts	Punt Rate %
1	Greg Schiano	12	3	25.0
2	Tom Cable	21	5	23.8
3	Steve Spagnuolo	17	4	23.5
4	Butch Davis	27	6	22.2
5	Eric Mangini	24	5	20.8
6	Brian Billick	35	7	20.0
7	Anthony Lynn	25	5	20.0
8	Dan Reeves	15	3	20.0
9	Bobby Petrino	5	1	20.0
10	Doug Marrone	36	7	19.4
11	Romeo Crennel	37	7	18.9
12	Rex Ryan	48	9	18.8
13	Steve Mariucci	27	5	18.5
14	Mike Sherman	22	4	18.2
15	Rob Chudzinski	11	2	18.2
16	Brandon Staley	17	3	17.6
17	Dave Campo	17	3	17.6
18	Jim Harbaugh	18	3	16.7
19	Brian Flores	12	2	16.7
20	Art Shell	6	1	16.7
21	F Kitchens	6	1	16.7
22	George Seifert	6	1	16.7
23	Jim Bates	6	1	16.7
24	Dennis Green	19	3	15.8
25	Mike Martz	19	3	15.8
26	Gregg Williams	14	2	14.3
27	Joe Judge	7	1	14.3
28	Mike Vrabel	37	5	13.5
29	Joe Gibbs	30	4	13.3
30	Pat Shurmur	30	4	13.3
31	Dirk Koetter	15	2	13.3
32	Bill Belichick	106	14	13.2
33	Dick Jauron	31	4	12.9
34	Jack Del Rio	70	9	12.9
35	Mike Smith	47	6	12.8
36	Ken Whisenhunt	40	5	12.5
37	Mike Mularkey	32	4	12.5
38	Gus Bradley	24	3	12.5
39	Zac Taylor	24	3	12.5
40	Dave McGinnis	16	2	12.5
41	Matt Eberflus	8	1	12.5
42	Pete Carroll	65	8	12.3
43	Lovie Smith	66	8	12.1
44	Wade Phillips	17	2	11.8
45	Herm Edwards	52	6	11.5
46	Bill Parcells	26	3	11.5
47	Jim Haslett	35	4	11.4
48	Jeff Fisher	80	9	11.3
49	Vic Fangio	18	2	11.1
50	Jim Caldwell	37	4	10.8
51	Chuck Pagano	28	3	10.7
52	Tony Dungy	47	5	10.6
53	Jim Fassel	19	2	10.5
54	Josh McDaniels	29	3	10.3
55	Kevin Stefanski	20	2	10.0
56	Leslie Frazier	20	2	10.0
57	M Schott'heimer	20	2	10.0
58	Mike Munchak	20	2	10.0
59	Dick LeBeau	10	1	10.0
60	Vance Joseph	10	1	10.0
61	Jim Mora	21	2	9.5
62	Joe Philbin	21	2	9.5
63	Bill O'Brien	32	3	9.4
64	Jon Gruden	88	8	9.1
65	Dennis Erickson	11	1	9.1
66	Lane Kiffin	11	1	9.1
67	Robert Saleh	11	1	9.1
68	Scott Linehan	11	1	9.1
69	Doug Pederson	56	5	8.9
70	Mike McCarthy	80	7	8.8
71	Gary Kubiak	60	5	8.3
72	Kyle Shanahan	36	3	8.3
73	Matt Patricia	12	1	8.3
74	Mike Pettine	12	1	8.3
75	Sean McVay	25	2	8.0
76	Todd Bowles	38	3	7.9
77	Raheem Morris	27	2	7.4
78	Mike Zimmer	41	3	7.3
79	Dan Campbell	14	1	7.1
80	Hue Jackson	14	1	7.1
81	Brad Childress	29	2	6.9
82	Marvin Lewis	106	7	6.6
83	Bruce Arians	31	2	6.5
84	Mike McCoy	31	2	6.5
85	Frank Reich	32	2	6.3
86	Kliff Kingsbury	16	1	6.3
87	Mike Nolan	16	1	6.3
88	Andy Reid	114	7	6.1
89	Norv Turner	49	3	6.1
90	John Fox	82	5	6.1
91	Adam Gase	17	1	5.9
92	Chan Gailey	17	1	5.9
93	Matt Rhule	17	1	5.9
94	Jason Garrett	72	4	5.6
95	Dave Wannstedt	20	1	5.0
96	M Mornhinweg	20	1	5.0
97	John Harbaugh	102	5	4.9
98	Mike Tice	21	1	4.8
99	Rod Marinelli	22	1	4.5
100	Dan Quinn	23	1	4.3
101	Sean Payton	71	3	4.2
102	Mike Tomlin	95	4	4.2
103	Jay Gruden	25	1	4.0
104	Tony Sparano	25	1	4.0
105	Tom Coughlin	81	3	3.7
106	Mike Shanahan	62	2	3.2
107	Dick Vermeil	32	1	3.1
108	Sean McDermott	33	1	3.0
109	Ron Rivera	68	2	2.9
110	Jim Schwartz	34	1	2.9
111	Mike Holmgren	35	1	2.9
112	Bill Cowher	27	0	0.0
113	Matt Nagy	27	0	0.0
114	Dom Capers	19	0	0.0
115	Matt LaFleur	17	0	0.0
116	Chip Kelly	15	0	0.0
117	Dennis Allen	15	0	0.0
118	Arthur Smith	14	0	0.0
119	Bill Callahan	14	0	0.0
120	Mike Singletary	14	0	0.0
121	Steve Spurrier	13	0	0.0
122	Todd Haley	13	0	0.0
123	Nick Saban	12	0	0.0
124	Steve Wilks	10	0	0.0
125	Kevin O'Connell	9	0	0.0
126	Mike Riley	9	0	0.0
127	N Hackett	9	0	0.0
128	Ben McAdoo	7	0	0.0
129	Jim Zorn	7	0	0.0
130	Nick Sirianni	7	0	0.0
131	Marc Trestman	6	0	0.0
132	David Culley	5	0	0.0
133	Jim Tomsula	5	0	0.0
134	Mike McDaniel	5	0	0.0
135	Rich Bisaccia	5	0	0.0
136	Aaron Kromer	4	0	0.0
137	Brian Daboll	4	0	0.0
138	Joe Vitt	4	0	0.0
139	Darrell Bevell	3	0	0.0
140	Jeff Saturday	3	0	0.0
141	Urban Meyer	3	0	0.0
142	Cam Cameron	2	0	0.0
143	Perry Fewell	2	0	0.0
144	E Studesville	1	0	0.0
145	Jay Rosburg	1	0	0.0

Fat Mike is mid pack, 70 of 145.

Belichick leads in count, 14 out of 106. No surprise there.

Of those who never punted, Bill Cowher and Matt Nagy lead with 27 drives.

Quote

02-01-2023 , 05:24 AM

#21907

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 23,298

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerHero77

Since 2001, drives ending in punt when down 1-8 points, with drive ending 5 minutes or less in regulation.

you compile this yourself or is there an online database to see this stuff?

Quote

02-01-2023 , 12:40 PM

#21908

PokerHero77

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 5,800

My source data is from NFLVerse on github. I import into MySQL, with some data cleaning.

Additional data (e.g. reff assignments) I get from pro-football-reference.com.

Quote

02-01-2023 , 05:23 PM

#21909

rickroll

oddly catty

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 23,298

Quote:

Originally Posted by PokerHero77

My source data is from NFLVerse on github. I import into MySQL, with some data cleaning.

Additional data (e.g. reff assignments) I get from pro-football-reference.com.

thank you, will look into that

Quote

02-02-2023 , 05:04 AM

#21910

cneuy3

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 2,330

Crazy stuff there based on the variables I gave you. Thank you for compiling that list but maybe we have to consider more variables like yards needed to gain or something or add in another minute or so to the clock to get a slightly larger sample size.

That list makes Brandon Staley look like more of a wuss than Mike McCarthy.

Quote

02-02-2023 , 05:11 AM

#21911

cneuy3

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 2,330

Props to Cowher as I'm a Steeler fan but cannot believe Tomlin is also so low on that list. I recall more than a few terrible punts he has made over the years but I guess they are falling outside the last five minutes. I remember one specifically against the Browns in the playoffs a few years back where he punted semi late on fourth down multiple scores on like a 4th and 2 past midfield. I think he has two in that game alone that showed up high on that surrender index twitter account.

Quote

02-06-2023 , 07:53 PM

#21912

PokerHero77

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 5,800

Yeah, your original query did leave out some pertinent criteria:

-yards to go (probably most important);
-yard line where punting (a bit less important but still relevant);
-timeouts remaining (no TOs would indicate dumb coach).

I like your idea of increasing time threshold. Probably better to develop a formula, makes analysis easier.

And remember, we queried on a team being down 1 score, i.e. 8 points or less.

Let me know and I'll run it again using additional criteria.

Quote

02-07-2023 , 08:14 PM

#21913

PokerHero77

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 5,800

These are the most egregious punts, based on win probability prior to punting. Down by 8 or less, 5 minutes or less remaining in regulation. Only 3 of the punts had yards to go less than 5 yards. Only 1 team was actually favored to win, TB at JAX 41 4th and 4, 5:00 remaining, down 23-24. TB was 52.1% to win game before punt, 41.3% after.

Code:

Game ID	       Season	Pos Team	Def Team	Down	Dist	To Goal	WP (pre/post)	Play Description
2007_08_JAX_TB	2007	TB	23	JAX	24	4	4	41	0.521	0.413	(5:00) (Punt formation) 9-J.Bidwell punts 38 yards to JAX 3, Center-48-A.Economos, downed by TB-85-M.Stovall.
2003_10_CHI_DET	2003	DET	9	CHI	10	4	2	64	0.476	0.354	(4:15) 2-N.Harris punts 44 yards to CHI 20, Center-89-B.Banta. 21-R.McQuarters to CHI 21 for 1 yard (31-A.Cobourne).
2014_13_CIN_TB	2014	TB	13	CIN	14	4	11	42	0.465	0.360	(4:11) (Punt formation) 9-M.Koenen punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-48-A.DePaola, Touchback.
2019_08_LAC_CHI	2019	CHI	16	LAC	17	4	16	46	0.448	0.293	(2:09) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 31 yards to LAC 15, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 20-D.King.
2004_06_SF_NYJ	2004	SF	14	NYJ	15	4	16	35	0.445	0.277	(4:27) 4-A.Lee punts 35 yards to end zone, Center-86-B.Jennings, Touchback.
2005_15_SD_IND	2005	IND	17	LAC	19	4	24	38	0.427	0.255	(2:36) 17-H.Smith punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-48-J.Snow, Touchback.
2019_18_TEN_NE	2019	NE	13	TEN	14	4	4	63	0.418	0.357	(3:17) 7-J.Bailey punts 50 yards to TEN 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 12-R.Davis.
2016_01_NYG_DAL	2016	DAL	19	NYG	20	4	13	67	0.400	0.347	(4:06) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to NYG 23, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

Quote

02-09-2023 , 08:07 AM

#21914

cneuy3

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 2,330

All these punts seem to be with the team down by less than 3 points actually so their blunders seem to be them thinking mostly that they can pin the other team deep, get a stop, and then have another shot on fresh downs to drive for the game winning FG.

The problem is obviously the other team also knows this so shouldn't play overly passive on their offensive possession. No idea what actually happens on average in reality but those teams should obviously be trying to get 1st downs and run somewhat of a normal offense to ice the game in their favor if they are playing smart.

Quote

04-27-2023 , 10:58 AM

#21915

TimM846

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 5,755

MIKE Budenholzer needs recognition here. Miami tied the game with 0.5 seconds left, Milwaukee had a timeout to advance the ball and instead of calling it they just ran out the clock and went to OT. This feels worse than kneeling at the 50 yard line with 1 second left in a tie game. You're probably 10% max to hit a shot but there is an even lower risk of a 'pick six' scenario.

In his defense, they're up 2 with 2.1 seconds left, so there's no way he's imagining a scenario in which the Heat score with time left on the clock. So he only had a few seconds to react. But still, the fact that he (or even one of the players) didn't call the timeout there is insane. Just lighting equity on fire. In an elimination game!

Quote

04-28-2023 , 08:14 PM

#21916

borg23

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 15,389

Quote:

Originally Posted by TimM846

wtf they had a time out? hahaha.

that's worse than John Fox kneeling out the clock before halftime after a touchback, a ,minute left and 3 time outs with great Peyton Manning.

Quote

09-24-2023 , 11:31 PM

#21917

ntanygd760

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 13,682

bump for da Raiders fg down 8 on the 8 yard line

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09-25-2023 , 12:30 AM

#21918

bazooka87

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 22,090

???????????????????????????

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09-25-2023 , 11:55 AM

#21919

Tom Ames

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 45,989

He needs to loosen that visor. It's obviously cutting off circulation.

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09-25-2023 , 01:55 PM

#21920

GMan42

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 5,263

I'll die on this hill--half the time you're not making the 2PC and do need more than one possession, if there's enough time to get the ball back again (not counting some shitty situation with like like :28 left from your own 30 or something) and the 4th down is an iffy distance, it's totally fine to kick.

Quote

09-25-2023 , 02:18 PM

#21921

madlex

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Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 17,874

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMan42

Nobody suggests going for it if it's 4&25 from the 30. In this specific situation analytics don't think it's anywhere to a close call. According to the ESPN numbers, going for it increases the win probability by >50% over kicking the field goal (15,8% to 10,2%).

If you don't get it on 4th down, you have the offense on their own 8 yard line compared to (most likely) the 25 if you kick. That obviously increases the chance of getting the ball back with good field position by a good amount.

Last edited by madlex; 09-25-2023 at 02:28 PM.

Quote

09-25-2023 , 02:26 PM

#21922

tarheels2222

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Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 11,211

Also, I haven't seen anyone mention it, but McDaniels even took it a step further by kicking it deep rather than going for the onside kick. A Pit first down is going to end the game either way. I don't think potential better field position by kicking it deep outweighs giving yourself another opportunity to get the ball back on offense with an onside kick.

And especially with McDaniels electing to FG over TD, he has to kick the onside kick. As another scenario in potentially getting the ball back, is Pit converts a first down on 1st and 10 to get into FG range, but then you still are able to stop them on the next set of downs and have roughly 2 mins remaining between burning the 3 TOs + 2 min warning.

Additionally, the argument of not making the 2 point 50% of the time seems to be outweighed by the fact that if you don't convert, you now only need a FG and not a TD.

Last edited by tarheels2222; 09-25-2023 at 02:37 PM.

Quote

09-25-2023 , 02:27 PM

#21923

GMan42

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 5,263

I appreciate the hard numbers on it, I admit I wouldn't have expected that big a spread in win %. Just out of curiosity, what's the breakeven point in yards to go that makes them roughly equal? (Last night was 4th & 4, right?)

Quote

09-25-2023 , 02:33 PM

#21924

Rococo

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Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 18,509

Quote:

Originally Posted by GMan42

I haven't looked at the analytics, but if you go for it on 4th and 4 from the 8, I'm guessing that you have 50% chance of a TD, and 50% chance of making the 2 pt conversion. So 25% of the time you are going to tie the game. If nothing else happens, the Raiders are going to win approximately half the time in overtime. That's a 12.5% chance of winning if you go for it.

But some of the time, the Raiders are going to fail on 4th down, or miss the conversion, and still win or tie. That will be offset by the times that the Raiders tie the game in regulation but still give up a FG to lose. I'm guessing that dynamic adds maybe 3 or 4 percentage points to the Raiders winning %. So I'd guess that the % chance of winning if you go for it is somewhere in the 16-17% range.

If you kick the FG, I'm guessing that the Steelers get a first down no more than 40% of the time because they will be running it to force the Raiders to burn their TOs. But if the Raiders get the ball on their own 40 with one time out left and 1:50 or so on the clock, how often does Jimmy G produce a TD? Maybe 15% of the time at best. That would mean that the kicking the FG would yield a 9% chance of winning the game.

Kicking the FG has to be a mistake.