It's not me who does not understand the difference, based on your reasoning it's you. Remember the "lower variance" criterion?

The difference between the Chiefs down 21 vs 24 points is about 4.2% in win probability (1.4% per point). The difference between 24 and 28 points is about 3.4% (0.85% per point). You can debate the exact numbers, but the ratios are close to correct.

That's why your obsession with expected points with no regard for the score fails so miserably in situations like this.

on one hand we have a market where billions of dollars are being exchanged that says KC was still 20-25% to win in the second quarter even when down by 24 points.

on the other hand we have poster stinkypete who says that being up 24 in the second quarter on the road in KC against Patrick Mahomes is basically the same as being up by a million but the market is just not efficient enough to reflect this.

I wonder which one i should believe. This is a really tough decision.

Yeah there's definitely billions going down on those +800/-1500 lines

Meanwhile you guys are quoting win probability models that had the Texans over 90% to "prove" your point

Ok, so using your numbers I'm guessing HOU went from 73% to about 77% by kicking the FG. If they get TD they go from 73% to about 80.5%.

So, let's follow along here:
FG win chance: .77*0.9 + .72*0.1 = 0.765
Go for 4th win chance: (.805*.67+(.77*.9+.72*.1)*.33)*.7 + .73*.3 = 0.773

I'm assuming}
-HOU goes from 27% to 28% with a missed FG;
-70% conversion rate on 4th down;
-90% success rate on FG;
-67% chance of scoring TD if 4th down succeeds (=4.7 exp pts from 13 /7 pts possible = 0.67).

So using your source #s you improve win chance from 76.5% to 77.3% going for 4th.

This does not account for drawing more time of clock and getting more yardage from 4th down conversion. That would make win chance higher going for 4th.

So what, 75%, 80%, are you really disputing that?

Cite please where I said HOU was 90%. LOL

lol

lol

And your estimate is...? even more LOL

And your estimate for scoring TD 1st down from 12 is ...? And if they are closer than 12 then it is...?

I'll concede, 1st down from 12 actually around 58%.



That makes going for 4th down (using 75% now for conversion rate based on the chart above) = 81% win chance going for 4th down.

So you took your TD probability from 67% to 58% and your win probability went up. Nice work.

I'd point out the other errors in your work, but that would be too generous.

Did you read my post? I guess not. Try reading it and maybe you can figure it out.

If you want to cite anything, please, go for it. I'm using your win probability numbers, so do you want to revise those now?

Now that we've settled the 4th down situation (unless you have anything to point out), care to elaborate on your supporting the dumb fake punt decision?

You claimed you were using expected points of 4.7 after the successful 4th down conversion and then used calculations that added up to 5.6, which barely got you to breakeven on your suggested play. You're not capable of basic arithmetic, so it's no wonder you don't understand football.

I already stated I conceded the expected points 70% was wrong TD rate. I included the chart above to show it is 58%.

And 75% appears to be a more reasonable conversion rate. Sorry if that hurts your feelings.

And 81% is not break even.

Can you read?

And you think it's reasonable to assume you get a field goal 90% of the time you don't get a touchdown. You're beyond help.

Ok, HOU goes for 4th down again and fails, or fumbles, or throws an INT. And the chance of that is, what exactly? 5%

It changes the #s a bit:

Go for 4th: 77.2% win chance;
kick FG: 76.5%

Assuming:
Chance of TD after converting 4th down = 58%
Chance of turnover after converting 4th down = 5%
Chance of converting 4th down = 75%
Chance of making FG = 90%

Assume turnover = 10%, win chance = 77.1&
Assume TD rate = 50%, win chance = 77.0%.
Assume 4th down conversion rate = 70%, win chance = 77.0%

All more than 76.5% bro

So change any single one of your maximally generous assumptions to something more reasonable, and you're within 0.1% of the 76.9% you get when kicking the field goal.

And that's without correcting for the fact that you're still using 5.1 expected points after converting the 4th down when it should be more like 4.5.

In other words, I'm exactly correct.

Oh and it's probably more like 62% to convert, so there's that.

lol here's a tip: when pete cares enough to bother arguing with you then you're wrong.

Lol at the chat being the FG and the fake punt (both arguable depending on a few things) and for the most part ignoring the 4th quarter punt formation/TO/go for it.

Yeah really don't hate the fake punt. Obv the 4th and 1 time out then FG is peak BoB though

I mean the fact that he got the call right during the timeout while the mouthbreathers in here still can't figure it out is prob worthy of its own new thread

How did Pete get to know so much more than these guys who think the field goal attempt cost them 2.5% win probability?


https://www.sporttechie.com/edjsport...ter-decisions/

They must be smart if they have "sophisticated simulation computer models" and a website