Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb - Page 836 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

Thinking about it, the Colts WOAT fake punt started off in a punt formation before all the crazy motioning, so I guess it probably is legal. Somebody try it please

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12-31-2019 , 08:12 AM

#20878

JoeC2012

veteran

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 2,717

Quote:

Originally Posted by revots33

Found an interesting study done by some Yale students about 4th and 1 conversion rates. They analyzed over 3100 NFL 4th and 1 plays back to 1998. Overall conversion rate is about 65.7%, however QB sneaks were even more successful at 82.8%. Passing plays were the least successful, with RB running plays a little better. But QB sneaks were far superior to both.

One implication of this is that the analytics you see on when to go for it on 4th & 1 are probably far too conservative. I assume they take the NFL base conversion rate as an input, but those include all the times Tomlin went shotgun with 4 WRs on 4th and 2 feet. If you call a reasonable play you have an amazing shot at making it on 4th & 1 and you should be trying to do so very very often.

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12-31-2019 , 11:59 AM

#20879

that_pope

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Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 33,239

Deserves a re-watch every few months:

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12-31-2019 , 12:11 PM

#20880

dth123451

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Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 15,502

The stupid coaches draft was peak SE

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12-31-2019 , 12:45 PM

#20881

Bidz

Hurts so good

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 32,742

Quote:

Originally Posted by dth123451

The stupid coaches draft was peak SE

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...draft-1685266/

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01-04-2020 , 01:37 AM

#20882

renodoc

Casino Olympics Champion

Join Date: Feb 2004 Posts: 8,357

Nevada coach Jay Norvell vs Ohio in Potato Bowl.

Down by 15, NV scores a late TD. Coach goes for 2, fails.

Now down by 9 with 4 min left, big play down to the 4 yard line. Coach calls some kind of blzzaro trick-play double reverse which results in a fumble/turnover.

Gets the ball back still down 9 with 90 seconds to go on the 4 yard line. Whiffs on first 3 downs. On 4th down, instead of kicking FG, coach goes for it. Whiffs. Game over.

I may be a bit colored on this as the spread was 8.5 this am, but seriously WTF?

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01-04-2020 , 03:58 AM

#20883

Alpha Fish

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,838

aside from trick play hubris whatever I can't find a problem with any of those decisions

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01-04-2020 , 08:33 AM

#20884

ntanygd760

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Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 13,682

You really think the odds of scoring from the 4 on one play with possible flag for more plays then recovering onside kick and going 25 yards to kick a 50 yarder in 90 seconds is worse then the odds of a 22 yarder, getting onside and then having to go 65 yards?

Now if it is like 4th and goal from the 20 then sure kick the field goal. I imagine the break even point is around 4th and 10-12

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01-04-2020 , 12:07 PM

#20885

grando1.0

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I agree with the above

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01-04-2020 , 12:53 PM

#20886

BraveJayhawk

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Quote:

Originally Posted by renodoc

Ban

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01-04-2020 , 07:14 PM

#20887

housenuts

1st Quartiled the 500

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 49,932

Cowboys strongly considering fat mike is really fat mikeing it.

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01-04-2020 , 08:27 PM

#20888

Joe Pulaski

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Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 8,346

mcdermott has messed up every single game management decision today. going for 4th and 27 with three timeouts left is brutal. punting>fg>>>>>>going for it.

end of the first half was brutal too

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01-04-2020 , 08:28 PM

#20889

dth123451

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Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 15,502

Giving the ball to Frank Gore in two huge spots is indefensible. That end of first half sequence was terrible.

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01-04-2020 , 08:46 PM

#20890

Black Aces 518

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That 4th and 27 is just unreal. Has there ever been a time when an NFL coach passed up an obvious punt?? They can’t wait to punt in the dumbest spots and then pass up something mind numbingly obvious like that.

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01-04-2020 , 11:28 PM

#20891

ntanygd760

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Huh the 4th and 27 should have been a fg not a punt

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01-04-2020 , 11:32 PM

#20892

arcdog

veteran

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 2,365

Quote:

Originally Posted by ntanygd760

Huh the 4th and 27 should have been a fg not a punt

He wasnt making a 59 yard FG - was a punt

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01-04-2020 , 11:34 PM

#20893

dth123451

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Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 15,502

He made a 48 yard fg 2/3 of the way up the uprights. Hit the upper half of the net.

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01-05-2020 , 12:23 AM

#20894

Bidz

Hurts so good

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 32,742

BB punted it away

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01-05-2020 , 12:24 AM

#20895

dth123451

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Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 15,502

twice

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01-05-2020 , 12:32 AM

#20896

nath

the second coming of the second coming

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 68,751

Vrabel punting on 4th and 4 was bad but the entire clock / penalties sequence was hilarious

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01-05-2020 , 12:33 AM

#20897

JimHalpert

Howlpert

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 50,746

I can't believe a coach went to New England, decided with 6 minutes left that 1 point was enough and they were going to refuse to attempt to score more points, and it didn't end up costing them. For the last 15 years I've watched the Pats make teams pay for being cowards.

Still glad they won.

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01-05-2020 , 12:40 AM

#20898

dth123451

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The pats were the cowards

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01-05-2020 , 12:41 AM

#20899

Alpha Fish

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 3,838

BOB making a correct decision to go for it (and calling a correct play to get there) for the first time in a million years and getting stuffed is peak irony

if they lost the game I bet he would've never attempted another one in his career

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01-05-2020 , 01:58 AM

#20900

JoeC2012

veteran

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 2,717

Quote:

Originally Posted by arcdog

He wasnt making a 59 yard FG - was a punt

I don't understand why NFL teams roster kickers that have a 0% chance of making a 59 yard FG indoors. Are there really not 32 guys in the world that can hit a 59 yarder at a non-negligible rate?

I just looked and there were 6 different college kickers that made 57+ yarders this year. Doesn't seem that rare.

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