Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb - Page 834 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

Kyle Shanahan is the best play caller in football. He's also terrible with game management. Why do coaches make this mistake all the time.

4th and 1. A first ends the game. Up two points with under 2 minutes to go. A 45 yard FG to be up 5 if he makes or 2 if he misses. Or go for it and end the game.

It's so easy to move the ball late in the 4th with all four downs. Coaches are terrible in these spots. End the fricken game.

Just opened the thread to post exactly this. Awful.

He also somehow turned a guaranteed tie + freeroll win into a loss vs SEA in OT. Don't think he got any heat for it.

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12-16-2019 , 12:42 AM

#20829

grando1.0

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Haha Belichick 9

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12-21-2019 , 05:34 PM

#20830

Jimmy Proffett

SE's NFL Swami

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 22,531

The Bucs/Texans game today. Yikes.

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12-21-2019 , 05:56 PM

#20831

Palo

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BOB was doing BOB things.

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12-21-2019 , 07:59 PM

#20832

JoeC2012

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Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 2,717

Is Belichick actually a bad in-game coach now? He just kicked from the 2.5 yard line down 4 with 11 minutes to go. He's had quite a few head scratchers this year.

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12-21-2019 , 08:00 PM

#20833

dth123451

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That’s fine.

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12-21-2019 , 08:08 PM

#20834

JoeC2012

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Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 2,717

Quote:

Originally Posted by dth123451

That’s fine.

LOL

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12-22-2019 , 07:06 AM

#20835

joejoe1337

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Quote:

Originally Posted by dth123451

That’s fine.

cite?

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12-22-2019 , 07:17 AM

#20836

gregorio

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Bill is in bottom half of the league (maybe bottom quarter) wrt to maximizing win % with analytically correct 4th down aggression.

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12-22-2019 , 08:59 AM

#20837

jwd

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Join Date: Feb 2015 Posts: 2,724

Quote:

Originally Posted by dth123451

That’s fine.

Numbers according to pro football reference’s WP calculator. (Which obviously isn’t perfect.)

Go for it and score

64%

Go for it and don’t score

27%

Kick FG.

39%

Assuming they have a 50% shot of scoring a TD they’d be 45.5% to win compared to 39% if they kick the FG. That is a pretty terrible mistake.

The break even percentage for going for it is around 32%.

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12-22-2019 , 09:14 AM

#20838

joejoe1337

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Quote:

Originally Posted by jwd

You eggheads can prove anything with facts. You'll never understand what it feels like to feel the game state though.

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12-22-2019 , 09:44 AM

#20839

royalblue

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The took the points and ended up with another division crown. Seems like a fine decision to me.

Going for it just before half time on the other hand... you punt there and go to the locker room. Pats were punished for their hubris.

Last edited by royalblue; 12-22-2019 at 09:49 AM.

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12-22-2019 , 01:01 PM

#20840

esad

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Quote:

Originally Posted by jwd

Pfft. This doesn't factor in the momentum you would gain by kicking the FG. And you call this science???!!!

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12-22-2019 , 01:34 PM

#20841

GMan42

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Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 5,269

Given the Pats' offensive production this year I'd be kinda surprised if they're 50% to score there, and it probably doesn't have to be that much lower to tip the scales the other way.

Normally I'm team go for it here, but there's time for multiple additional possessions at this stage of the game, I'm not convinced it's more than a tiny mistake if one at all.

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12-22-2019 , 01:51 PM

#20842

Aurora Tom

adept

Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 1,167

Thoughts on Rams calling timeout before the bomb to Sanders? And after it also?

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12-22-2019 , 02:27 PM

#20843

JoeC2012

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Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 2,717

Quote:

Originally Posted by jwd

Thanks for running the numbers.

Average offense, good defense, 2.5 yards, what are we making the odds of conversion, something like 40-42%?

It's definitely not a close decision.

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12-22-2019 , 06:21 PM

#20844

Jeremy517

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Fourth and 1 from the Arizona 33 yard line. Pete Carroll takes an intentional delay of game and then punts.

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12-22-2019 , 09:16 PM

#20845

Bidz

Hurts so good

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 33,212

Pete wins this week which is impressive as hell considering both Clapper and Kitchens are still employed

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12-22-2019 , 10:21 PM

#20846

fanmail

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Garrett so dumb his bad calls don’t even get mentions. Dallas punts on*4th and 1 in the 4th q down by 11.

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12-22-2019 , 10:43 PM

#20847

Tom Ames

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Quote:

Originally Posted by fanmail

Garrett so dumb his bad calls don’t even get mentions. Dallas punts on*4th and 1 in the 4th q down by 11.

Actually everybody knows that Clapper has held onto his job by being a proxy for Jerruh. It really isn't fair to compare him to coaches who make their own decisions.