Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb - Page 787 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

"If you've got a 42 percent chance of making it from the 50-yard line going for it on fourth down, go for it. That's sort of where the game is now, even though 58 percent of the time you're giving the other team the ball at the 50-yard line."

Quote:

"I think with the more prolific offense and more scoring in the game now, people start thinking, 'Well, you're going to score a lot of points anyway, so why not take more chances?'" Saban said. "But for me, I've always been more wired to think, 'I've got a 42 percent chance here. Keep from getting beat before you try to win.' You don't think of taking chances, at least you didn't used to. Yeah, maybe you go for it and it works and you go down and score and you're a genius. But the other 50 percent of the time, you could have cost your team the game.

Quote:

"Philosophically, a lot of people have changed, not just us. If you look at some of the analytics now, whether you should go for it on fourth down and all the different situational stuff that happens, it's all geared toward offense."

🤔🤔🤔

Quote

11-05-2018 , 01:46 PM

#19653

dth123451

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 15,502

Turns out being good at cheating and paying players trumps your egghead Ivy tower math, bro.

Quote

11-05-2018 , 01:51 PM

#19654

stinkubus

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 4,422

In fairness, Saban's teams are almost always favorites so they should be less inclined to take marginal gambles. Having a bad day on 4th down is about the only way most of the opposition could get themselves into the game.

Quote

11-05-2018 , 01:55 PM

#19655

dkgojackets

DKGOAT

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86,123

clearly he is BSing hoping other coaches will imitate such nonsense

always thinking ahead

Quote

11-05-2018 , 06:22 PM

#19656

mavsfan4ever

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 1,540

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heroball

Kevin Sumlin called a play in a one score game when Arizona should have been in victory formation.

He did this at A&M last year against a cupcake opponent. I think it was the game after the UCLA disaster. We played awful and were only up 6 with like 25 seconds left. They had no timeouts. He literally ran a play instead of kneeling. And to make it worse, he called a pass play. It was incomplete, so we had to kick a ****ing field goal to go up by 9. We made it and won the game, but that was the most ridiculous thing I have ever seen. I wanted him fired before he left the field.
Adding it to the UCLA debacle the week before and it has to be the worst two weeks of coaching in NCAAF history.

Quote

11-07-2018 , 10:46 PM

#19657

BraveJayhawk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 8,575

Miami Ohio

4Q

Up 14. With the game clock running, they’re letting the play clock run down to 3 seconds every play.

Refreshing to see amazing strategy from time to time. NFL - hire this man!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Quote

11-08-2018 , 01:08 AM

#19658

EddyB66

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 26,788

I’m fairly certain the reason coaches in college keep running plays instead of the victory formation is to try to cover for boosters. At least it seems that way, and I have no issue with it. Spurrier was well known for that.

Quote

11-08-2018 , 10:09 AM

#19659

mavsfan4ever

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 1,540

Quote:

Originally Posted by EddyB66

The sumlin example I posted above had nothing to do with covering. We were large favorites against a cupcake and were not going to cover even if we scored a td there. He had gotten a ton of flack for his mismanagement of a 34 point lead the week before so it was just a **** you to all the boosters and fans I guess. I have no clue what else it could be.

I would have no problem if a team was up by multiple scores and was trying to cover the spread st the end.

Quote

11-08-2018 , 12:42 PM

#19660

VincentVega

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 9,695

Yea that's uhhh kinda unethical

Quote

11-08-2018 , 02:02 PM

#19661

mavsfan4ever

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 1,540

Nothing about trying to score a TD with a few minutes left instead of just taking a knee and letting the clock run for a couple minutes when up by multiple touchdowns would be unethical. The other team can stop you if they will get their feelings hurt if you score. I agree it would be unethical if you quit trying to score so that the opposition covers.

Quote

11-08-2018 , 02:48 PM

#19662

Heroball

temp-banned

Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 9,402

Quote:

Originally Posted by EddyB66

Lol

The spread was in no way related to my Sumlin example. He went into victory formation the very next play, in any event.

Quote

11-09-2018 , 01:05 AM

#19663

VincentVega

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 9,695

Quote:

Originally Posted by mavsfan4ever

Risking getting players hurt unnecessarily so bettors can cover the spread, o/u, whatever in my mind is unethical. If they just want to run up the score to piss somebody off, eh, OK.

Quote

11-09-2018 , 03:50 PM

#19664

goofball

Beat Nate Silver

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 20,428

And the goal is to win. Once you've done that any further risk you take reduces your win probability for future games by increasing the probably the players get hurt or ejected from the current game.

Quote

11-09-2018 , 03:59 PM

#19665

dkgojackets

DKGOAT

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86,123

style points can matter in college football tho

Quote

11-09-2018 , 04:55 PM

#19666

VincentVega

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 9,695

Aren't they taking into context of the game? College football is stupid anyway

Quote

11-10-2018 , 03:44 PM

#19667

FlyWf

It's the other way

Join Date: Apr 2004 Posts: 58,097

Michigan State just gave up an intentional safety instead of putting from the 1... while down by 1 in the 3rd quarter

Quote

11-10-2018 , 03:47 PM

#19668

BiiiiigChips

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 7,479

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyWf

Michigan State just gave up an intentional safety instead of putting from the 1... while down by 1 in the 3rd quarter

Interesting decision to say the least

Quote

11-10-2018 , 05:07 PM

#19669

Dominic

Tripod

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 74,613

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlyWf

Michigan State just gave up an intentional safety instead of putting from the 1... while down by 1 in the 3rd quarter

wat

Quote

11-10-2018 , 05:30 PM

#19670

Perhaps Shimmy

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 2,577

Quote

11-10-2018 , 06:23 PM

#19671

Dominic

Tripod

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 74,613

Quote:

Originally Posted by Perhaps Shimmy

hmmmm...so you're saying he saved half a point?

Interesting.

Quote

11-10-2018 , 07:10 PM

#19672

Willd

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 16,446

A safety is significantly worse than -2 though, because you also give the ball back in decent field position:

http://archive.advancedfootballanaly...lly-worth.html

I doubt you could contrive any situation where taking a deliberate safety up 1 is correct.

Quote

11-10-2018 , 08:10 PM

#19673

dth123451

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 15,502

It was obviously stupid. They were sick of constantly starting drives from the 3 yard line and Dantonio threw a tantrum. It was the coaching version of turning off Nintendo when losing to your big brother.

Quote

11-12-2018 , 12:38 AM

#19674

mullen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 17,682

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominic

hmmmm...so you're saying he saved half a point?

Interesting.

Even if that chart is accurate, the punt values assume you’ll get the ball back. In this situation you punt again. So the safety is -2 then then you kick from your own 20 which is another -1.5. I doubt a free kick is that different in EV from a punt.