This. IMO.

Jason Garrett should be hereafter be called "Spike."

Kicking deep was fine in that spot. Spiking on first down was complete idiocy.

The spike is obviously the peak, but people are glossing over the Fat Mike settling for a 50 yard fg like 1 minute beforehand that turned into a 56 yarder

Yeah that second down call was truly something else

Expound. To expound on my position, the timeout is still critical. If you fail on 4th OR you fail on 2pc, you NEED the timeout to get that ball back. What KC did is basically equivalent to if they had scored the TD then call timeout so they can spend 90 seconds thinking about what 2pc they wanna run. They should already have a plan.

I think kicking it deep is awful. Onside gives you 2 chances at getting the ball back. Either way a first down ends the game.

Yeah guys when you're saying kicking it deep was OK you need to incorporate that the Steelers had 2 (non-end of the half) drives in the entire game that didn't result in points, the one punt and an interception in the endzone after a 70 yard drive.

Kicking off deep wasn't as bad as the spike, but it was real real bad.

It was Steelers' 38, I think.

That's correct

More of an issue for Reid, to me, is the fact that there never seems to be any urgency at all with the offense. I get not wanting to leave any time for an offense that you've stopped basically not at all, but that drive took FOREVER. Plus the drive last year at NE, and it really seems like it's an issue.

I really think kicking it deep is fine.

There is probably about a 10% chance you recover an onside kick. I think the NFL average is 11%

Forcing a 3 & out and has to be better than 11%. Maybe not much better but even if it's just a 15% chance that is still the better chance. Plus if you kick it deep you get the ball in better field position if you are able to stop them.

That's not the whole equation though. I remember seeing 20% as the non-surprise onside recovery rate but I don't know if that's accurate.

Since the game is over if they get a first down, you want the higher of these two (field positions are approximate)

20% * Probability of scoring from ~midfield with 2.5 minutes left + 80% * Probability of no first down * Probability of scoring from your own 10 with ~30 seconds left

Vs

Probability of no first down * probability of scoring from your own 30 with ~30 seconds left


We could plug in numbers to try to approximate it, but I think the onside kick will have the best chance
I also can't remember the exact time situation so 30 seconds may not be accurate but you get the point

think of it this way

would the steelers prefer if you kicked off or onside?

there was still a 2:00 TO and KC had a TO--so 1:15ish if no actual return on the run/run/run/punt scenario. Reid's kicking off every time with that situation.

Did you never watch an eagles playoff game in your life?

the fact that it would be 1:15 instead of :30 makes onside even better since that is still a reasonable amount of time to get into scoring range even if you start backed up inside your 20

do expect most coaches to kick it deep almost always there

Don't forget the eagles sb against new England.

Princeton Chilly pulls that **** in every close game they play. He is dumb.

There wont be any discussion about it since he ended up making the FG, but I'd like to see the numbers on that decision. At the time it seemed to me that punt>go for it>FG. Its a tie game with around 1:00 left if I recall correctly. If you punt the game is going to OT ~100% of the time, so you win about 50%. What is the chance that Crosby makes that kick? 30%? Less? And on those 70% of misses, DAL gets the ball around midfield with a minute left. And as we saw, even on some of the makes DAL scores and ties or wins in regulation, too. On a punt they are conservitavely calling some runs and going to OT, but with the ball at midfield, against GB defense, they probably kick the GW FG a significant percentage of the time. It was I think 4th and 6, so going for it isnt great either, but the times you get it when you go for it, you get to attempt a shorter FG nearly all the time, and you give DAL the ball back nearly never, so the upside to going for it is higher than the upside of kicking the FG.

I know its 2p2 and punting is never correct but I think this was a spot where it was

Rodgers clock/situational management compared to the numerous Dallas errors was about as wide of a discrepancy as you're gonna see in a game.

part of me thinks Reid wasn't in a hurry bc it was a "one score game", the other part of me thinks time just isn't a real consideration for him. we've seen his teams botch it so many times that it is just a blind spot for him

as far as McCarthy settling for the 52 yard FG, I joked ahead of that that he would do that. that is the most standard bad coaching sequence in the NFL:

"get into 'FG range' > stop trying to go further"

Anyone have numbers on Hail Mary success %?

not sure about this. Don't think punting makes it 50% for GB to win, dallas would have plenty of time to drive for a FG (I mean they did so after the kickoff, sooo). Let's say that punting wins the game for GB 40% of the time. I think that's generous too.

Let's say he makes that kick 30% of the time. Packers win probably 75% of the time he makes that kick. They win maybe 25% of the time they kick and miss. That would be a 40% WP. So I think it's pretty close between punting and kicking.

What about punting at the end of the first half?

GB snaps the ball with 2 seconds left on the clock and punts. Sure, bad snap, blocked punt or punt return TD are very unlikely.

The alternative is letting the clock run down to 0:01, take a delay of game penalty, followed by a kneel down. Or: snap the ball and let the punter kneel down. Anything but giving the ball to Dallas.

Success rates for onsides kicks is 11%. Given that the Steelers know the onsides kick is coming I would guess it is lower than that. Let's just say 10%. I will use WP from pro-football reference. Let's assume the Steelers go 3 and out 50% of the time and have to punt. The Chiefs will get the ball at their own 10 if the they kick an onsides kick and don't recover and they will get the ball at their own 45 if they kick it deep. Steelers 1st down ends the game. Also, let's say the Chiefs get the ball back with 1:30 if they force a punt. (I know run, run, run would be like 1:15 but there is some chance they throw an incompletion. Would think it's higher if KC kicks it deep but I am just going to use the same probabilities for simplicity.)

WP if Chiefs recover = 44.61%
WP if Chiefs force 3 and out and get the ball at their own 10 w/ 1:30: 16.04%
WP if Chiefs force 3 and out and get the ball at their own 45 w/ 1:30: 38.69%

WP if they kick onsides:

(.10 *.4461) +(.9 * .5 * .1604)

4.461% + 7.2185 = 11.7%

WP if they kick it deep:

(.5 * .3869)

= 19.3%

I think those criticizing him for kicking it deep might be wrong. Especially given how effective the deep kick ended up being.

Let's say it is 18% to be recovered:

WP if they kick onsides:

(.18 *.4461) +(.82 * .5 * .1604)

8.03% + 6.57% = 14.6%

WP if they kick it deep:

(.5 * .3869)

= 19.3%