Quote:
Originally Posted by Dudd
Meh, I don't think it's that wrong. You have a pretty good chance to convert and score your touchdown a few plays later, then if you get the onsides kick you only have to get into field goal range. Doubt it's more than a couple of percentage points wrong in either direction, if that.
Well, there's a lot of stuff that happens after the decision, but no this is bad. You don't have a good chance to convert and score your touchdown a few plays later, you have a good chance to convert. And then you're probably looking at 1st and goal from the 9 with 70 seconds left, which is a situation which does not have an expected points value of 7.