Quote:
Originally Posted by MrFeelNothin
I wasn't watching the game, but what would cause Chicago to go for it on 4th and 1 from Detroit 26 with the score 0-0, and then kick a FG on 4th and 1 also from the 26 when down 0-7?
The first try can't have been a short 1 yard, since they didn't sneak it. Recency bias ftw?
You can call it recency bias, or you can call it re-evaluating your EV on the basis of new information. Lovie might have thought "ok I think we can convert 1 yard about 75% of the time" on the first try. Then, after watching his Oline get caved in 2-3 more times, he may have re-evaluated and said "ok, we can make this like 25% of the time" and adjusted his decision. I actually thought it was a pretty decent decision on his part (in fact, given their record on converting in such situations, the worst decision may have been going for the first one at all).
This was nowhere near as bad as his challenge of the spot leaving himself no timeouts.