Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb - Page 679 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

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Kyle Shanahan don't need to know no stinking OT rules. Mario CRYSTALBALL is still unreal dumb

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12-28-2015 , 10:44 PM

#16951

Louis Cyphre

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I think BB is just trying to comvince other coaches to kick in OT. A meaningless game like this is the perfect spot.

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12-28-2015 , 10:47 PM

#16952

dkgojackets

DKGOAT

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86,123

Quote:

Originally Posted by pvn

Has anyone suggested otherwise? The point that you're aggressively trying to dismiss here is that when you kick, the possibility that you might not get to touch the ball figures pretty prominently into your chances of "losing (without regard to whether you to cubed the ball or not)"

I'm not sure how else to explain this, but literally everyone here knows the rules of overtime so just stating "hey if you kick then you can lose without getting a possession" adds absolutely nothing to the analysis of why its good or bad

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12-28-2015 , 11:00 PM

#16953

THAY3R

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Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 36,550

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roger Clemens

Sounds like a "no".

No....I don't think it being a regular season game vs playoff game mattered at all. He made a decision on what he thought gave them the best chance to win and made the incorrect decision by overrating certain factors, none of which had to do with it being a regular season game. In fact it being a regular season game makes receiving it more valuable since it maximizes your win or tie chances considering that in the playoffs there are no ties.

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12-28-2015 , 11:17 PM

#16954

revots33

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Louis Cyphre

I think BB is just trying to comvince other coaches to kick in OT. A meaningless game like this is the perfect spot.

Lol he's on a whole different level

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12-28-2015 , 11:22 PM

#16955

revots33

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Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 13,475

I'm not a Pats fan nor do I think it was the right move. However I respect Belichik and don't just assume he has no valid reasons for his decision.

At worst he gave up about 3% equity on a hunch that his defense would get a stop. A marginally bad call sure, but not exactly the epic blunder some itt are convinced it so obviously was.

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12-28-2015 , 11:48 PM

#16956

Roger Clemens

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 2,778

Quote:

Originally Posted by THAY3R

If you are asserting that coaches make the same decisions in the regular season that they do in the playoffs, you are wrong.

Quote:

In fact it being a regular season game makes receiving it more valuable since it maximizes your win or tie chances considering that in the playoffs there are no ties.

I don't see how receiving maximizes chance of a tie. In fact, playing more conservative would maximize chance of a tie, e.g. kicking a FG after NYJ kick a FG.

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12-29-2015 , 12:29 AM

#16957

Black Aces 518

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Wow you know it is almost like teams with two timeouts left shouldn't just run out the last minute and settle for a 45 yard FG attempt. Such idiocy.

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12-29-2015 , 12:31 AM

#16958

pvn

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by Roger Clemens

If you are asserting that coaches make the same decisions in the regular season that they do in the playoffs, you are wrong.

this discussion isn't about what coaches actually do.

Quote

12-29-2015 , 12:40 AM

#16959

kkcountry

BBV MS Paint Rapid Response Squad

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 31,264

They're all bad

Can't wait for eSports to really take off and IRL tackle football to be banned so the 32 teams of the iNFL are all ran by 17 year old madden pros

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12-29-2015 , 01:36 AM

#16960

Wooders0n

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Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 24,820

Quote:

Originally Posted by revots33

I'm not a Pats fan nor do I think it was the right move. However I respect Belichik and don't just assume he has no valid reasons for his decision.
.

Reasons =/= valid reasons

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12-29-2015 , 01:55 AM

#16961

powder_8s

temp-banned

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 3,782

Quote:

Originally Posted by Black Aces 518

Wow you know it is almost like teams with two timeouts left shouldn't just run out the last minute and settle for a 45 yard FG attempt. Such idiocy.

+1,000,000
1st down, 55 seconds left, 2 TO's, tie game on 25 yard line. Take a knee for loss of 2 yards. 45 yard FG attempt!!..WTF

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12-29-2015 , 03:33 AM

#16962

jh12547

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 5,375

Quote:

Originally Posted by powder_8s

+1,000,000
1st down, 55 seconds left, 2 TO's, tie game on 25 yard line. Take a knee for loss of 2 yards. 45 yard FG attempt!!..WTF

At least they didn't kick to start OT lol

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12-29-2015 , 04:44 AM

#16963

Palo

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I'm never calling him Kubitard again. He's worse than ******ed. He is Kubiak.

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12-29-2015 , 05:31 AM

#16964

DeadMoneyWalking

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Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 32,472

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kneel B4 Zod

Since the NFL adopted its current regular-season overtime rules in 2012, teams that win the toss and receive the ball first have gone on to win only 51.5 percent of the time. (Looks like 99 OT games)

Good take on why this is hard to model and why we're talking about something ultimately pretty minor.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...tirely-stupid/

That's why I'm sticking with that BB never passes on a chance to troll the NFL where it doesn't matter very much.

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12-29-2015 , 06:33 AM

#16965

AngerPush

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Roger Clemens

I don't see how receiving maximizes chance of a tie. In fact, playing more conservative would maximize chance of a tie, e.g. kicking a FG after NYJ kick a FG.

If one team is ok with a tie then obviously having possession first allows them the opportunity to possibly have an extra possession and slow the game down thus increasing the chance of a tie. If they swapped punts and NE gets the ball back with 7:30 left, they could very well instill a strategy where they bleed the clock and the worst possible outcome is a tie.

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12-29-2015 , 09:34 AM

#16966

dkgojackets

DKGOAT

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86,123

Quote:

Originally Posted by kkcountry

They're all bad

Can't wait for eSports to really take off and IRL tackle football to be banned so the 32 teams of the iNFL are all ran by 17 year old madden pros

i can't wait to discuss poor dota strategy itt

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12-29-2015 , 11:29 AM

#16967

Guitar Pro

banned

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 139

This thread would have been about 1000x better if a bad coach would have done what BB did and everyone could just have a hearty LOL at his expense. Since it was BB, you have the Pats slappy brigade in here arguing with anybody who would even imply that BB might have made the wrong decision.

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12-29-2015 , 11:38 AM

#16968

PocketChads

guaranteed 42-10 finish

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 22,469

Has this thread just turned into a contest to see how wrongly one can argue for the right side?

My face has been thoroughly melted.

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01-01-2016 , 12:16 AM

#16969

Riverman

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Join Date: Apr 2003 Posts: 73,135

Michigan State down 31-0. 9 minutes left, 4th and 1.

KICKING TEAM

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01-01-2016 , 12:48 AM

#16970

Buccofan86

adept

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 887

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riverman

Michigan State down 31-0. 9 minutes left, 4th and 1.

KICKING TEAM

Meh, they had like 0.1% equity at that point anyway.

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01-01-2016 , 12:54 AM

#16971

AngerPush

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Cmon riverman

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01-03-2016 , 12:11 AM

#16972

RainierWolfcastle

adept

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 1,151

Mark Helfrich kicking an extra point to send the Alamo Bowl into a second overtime when the Ducks had only gotten a few first downs and hadn't stopped TCU once since halftime.

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01-03-2016 , 01:41 AM

#16973

BraveJayhawk

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Quote:

Originally Posted by RainierWolfcastle

Mark Helfrich kicking an extra point to send the Alamo Bowl into a second overtime when the Ducks had only gotten a few first downs and hadn't stopped TCU once since halftime.

Definitely thread-worthy

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01-03-2016 , 04:01 AM

#16974

Spenda

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Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 15,314

Todd Graham kicked the PAT up five with 4:50 left. True justice won as West Virginia scored and kicked PAT to win by 1.

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01-03-2016 , 04:03 AM

#16975

Spenda

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Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 15,314

Quote:

Originally Posted by RainierWolfcastle

Mark Helfrich kicking an extra point to send the Alamo Bowl into a second overtime when the Ducks had only gotten a few first downs and hadn't stopped TCU once since halftime.

Everything he did offensively in the second half was bad. Between going full tempo, letting the kid throw it, and never going under center he did all in his power to keep TCU in the game.

TCU was in an interesting spot in regulation. They were clearly a massive OT favorite and kind of just went conservative in the redzone to kick the field goal and tie the game.

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