1) Thanks for reading.

2) Part of what I'm doing on that page is actually running through the math for math teachers, so I'm actually doing the calculations longhand instead of simply relying on the 4th down calculator. However of course, I take in the calculations from the WP calculator they have.

3) I think that's fair to consider the ANFLS calculator to be flawed because of sample size and/or strategy type issues. I actually disagree with their 4th and 7 rate of 42%, instead cherrypicking a 35% number I found somewhere else which I think is more reasonable. In the ANFLS calculator, it seems the most likely outcome would still be to kick the field goal, because that's what most coaches do with the ball at 1/10 on the 28 (ultimately). Sure, we can assign a better WP to this situation, and what I should personally do is recalculate the numbers to see how the WP really shakes out.

Finally, there's something I didn't consider. A friend says the Seahawks never intended to take a normal shot to the end zone. They intended to draw the 49ers off sides (which they did) and then take the free-play shot to the end zone, or take the 5 yards and attempt a 4th and 2, or take a delay of game and punt. The completed TD pass on the free play was a bonus.

I was wondering about that since the center snapped the ball instantly when the defender jumped offsides.

That's what centers are supposed to do, no matter what.

Yeah but they aren't always that perfect at it.

ANFLS has two articles up on value of a timeout.

First one here:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2014...oximation.html

Cool quote, reminds me of something Tommy Angelo said forever ago about poker.

"if you need to call a timeout to think over your options, the situation is probably not far from the point of indifference where the options are nearly equal in value."

I remember him saying something like people spend the most resources on discussing the options that matter the least.

Anyways, cool articles.

I'll wait for part 2 I guess but the article seems like garbage to me. Having less timeouts remaining almost certainly correlates with other variables which could be causative. For instance, "having a coach who sucks", or "having a team who are too disorganised and stupid to get sorted out before the snap". If those, and not the missing timeouts, are the cause of the missing WP, how the hell are you going to tell?

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2014...ut-part-2.html

Yeah no mention of that. Makes the whole analysis worthless imo.

timeouts are very valuable. for instance, they can give a team a chance at free points when time would otherwise expire

(I know this is a couple days later and in a thread about coaches, but just had to respond.)

Nope, Hauschka is money according to his coach. Also a beast (this from another player).

He's 33 of 35 this season (6 for 6 in the playoffs) and one of the misses was actually blocked. (The one real miss was an inexplicable short-range chip shot that went off the upright.)

So basically he's a great contributor to the team's point production and a competitor, I'm sure his teammates have his back.

This is one of my fave pieces of stupidity ever. The best thing about it is that they eventually lost the game by three points.

I mean Ron Rivera is crazy dumb

81% sure I'm in a bar with jim Caldwell right now. Not sure exactly how that pertains to this thread but couldn't think of a better place to put it

pics?

Act like you're gonna punch him in the face, then pull back at the last second. If he blinks, not Caldwell.

Ask him what he said in the Detroit HC job and then write it down because whatever he said must be bottled and sold. Especially to overlook his past decision making/work as HC and how well he did as OC last year.

He went to the interview having charted every Stafford throw from this year.

Seriously.

Why anyone would think this qualifies him to actually be the coach I have no idea, but the whole ordeal seems pretty consistent with the hilariously terrible candidate evaluation prevalent in most organizations.

also firefox has had a pretty sick run of elite QBs, going from Delhomme to Tebow to Peyton.

Too awkward. It would have been obvious. I am at a bar in downtown Indy though. Anyone got pics of his wife so I can be sure?

Oh I'm an idiot I meant chuck pagano not caldwell

Just googled pics of his wife I'm revising to 100% chuck pagano

lol

Ask him about The Punt

Just stand up and yell to nobody in particular "DOWN 21 SEND OUT THE KICKING TEAM HERP DERP" then leave.

Don't think I could contain my rage. I'm not about to go to jail for punching the Crossroads of Americas chosen son