wat

umm, wrong thread, ooops.

lol I'm not sure what Victor's post means but randomness makes me laugh.

Zorn deciding to kick a 54 yarder against the wind with the worst kicker in the league. 4th and 4 early in the game. He really is a genius.

my post was intended for nba thread. talking about cavs cover -13 vs okc.

its turning out to be a dumb bankroll decision so mebbe it fits.

Andy Reid not trying to commit suicide with his 2 kids.

Miami's hilarious 2-minute drill:

1 timeout left

2:37
- run loses 1 yard

2:17 (-20 seconds)
- pass for 6 yards

1:47 (-30 SECONDS)
- pass for 4 yards

1:07 (-40 SECONDS)
- pass for 3 yards

1:00 (-7 seconds)
- run for 5 yards, QB stays in bounds

:20 (-40 SECONDS)
- pass incomplete

Shannon calls timeout lololololololol

:12 (-8 seconds)
- pass incomplete

:05 (-7 seconds)
- run for 14 yards, runner scampers out of bounds with no time left despite being about 40 yards away from the endzone

FAIL

It's pretty much impossible to describe how awful the Miami coaching was at the end of that game.

hahahahahahahaha

and your weekly childress feature arrives now, coupled with coughlin icing the kicker twice

coughlin icing the kicker twice was whatever, but wow that was the worst series of plays ever from the vikings

Raiders are up 4 w/ 1:15 left in the game with 4th and goal at the Tampa 1. I think that kicking the FG (like they did) is really really bad.

Any thoughts?

Edited to add: Tampa has no TO's

Wade Philips wanted to punt on 4th & inches at the Dallas 40, down 24 with 12 minutes left in the 3rd.

Yeah I think so.

This one is easy enough to calculate. Let's say that in a tie you win half the time.

Say that:
p = probability of getting a TD if you go for it.
q = probability that they score a TD if they are down 7 (you kick FG)
r = probability that they score a TD starting at the 1 (you go for it and don't get it)

Assuming the kick is automatic the probability of winning if you kick it is:
1-q + q/2 (you win if they don't score and half the time they do)

If you go for it the probability of winning if you always win on a TD is:
p + (1-p)(1-r) (you win if you get the TD or if you don't but they don't get a TD either)

So going for it is good if:

p + (1-p)(1-r) > 1-q + q/2

or rewritten:
p (1-1+r) + 1-r > 1 - q/2

p > 1 - q/(2r)

Remember that q is the chance that they score coming off a kickoff and r from the 1. A team is more likely to score coming off a kickoff than starting at the 1 so q/2r is at least 1/2. This means that 1 - q/2r is at most 1/2. So if you are greater than 50/50 to get the touchdown it's automatically better.

It actually is worse than that. 1 - q/2r = 0 if q = 2r. In other words if the opponent is twice as likely to score coming off of a kickoff than from the 1 it is automatically better to go for it no matter how likely you are to get the TD. I think it's easily twice as likely that a team scores off of a kickoff return than from their own 1 yard line. Add to that the chance of having the field goal be no good or even blocked for a big return and going for it is a no brainer.

edit: Actually the above makes it even worse. If the other team is more than twice as likely to get a TD coming off the kick return than from their 1 then you are better off taking a knee than kicking the field goal! So the decision should have been go for it > taking a knee > kicking.

I don't think this is as bad as the two times this year where a team kicked the extra point to make it a 6 point lead with very little time on the clock but this is probably the worst decision otherwise. Certainly the worst decision that I would guess most coaches would make.

Vikings last drive + horrible playcalling otherwise is major fail. It disgusts me that Chilly still has a job and I'm currently unemployed.

I thought this too, but my buddy told me I was delusional.

Yeah it's especially bad since they would be dogs to win if the game went to OT, but I think it's probably bad in any scenario.

this...again.

That Viking's drive should get Childress fired on the spot. I'm from Seattle, I've seen bad clock management, but that was just fundamentally ******ed on every level.

I am so accustomed to Childress that I consider that mediocre and standard.

Seriously, I remember thinking during that end of the first half debacle that the Vikings were running good for that to be the first horrible coaching error of the day by Chilly.

Not a coaching decision, but Manning calling heads was the worst decision I have ever seen.

I was watching at the card room and immediately laughed out loud at calling heads. My friend didn't know what I was talking about. "You ALWAYS call tails there."

I dunno if it was a direct coaching blunder or not, but Rivers' spike with :54 left was atrocious.

Yep, that was what drew me to this thread. They were already quite close for the field goal, and this just cost them a down (would have been nice to have 3rd and 1 instead of 4th and 1 on the 7 or whatever) and left more time on the clock in a situation where they'd really like to be the last ones with the ball.

Also running on 3rd and 10 on the game-tying drive was horrible. Go for the first down Norv!