what if they trade him to the bengals who trade him to the cardinals who trade him to the vikings? Favre is a Jet, period end of story.

3

who the hell sets an o/u for a yes/no question?

Anyone have any idea when Favre will arrive at the new training facility here in Jersey? Any estimate would be appreciated, me and a few of my friends are considering going down there and see him touring the facility.

The New York Brettsssssssss...courtisy of my friend Skip Bayless

Err, what exactly makes Brett Favre terrible? He had one of his best seasons last year. Go back to talking about hockey IMO

he already visted the Practice Faculity and will be on the sidelines for the Browns vs JETS preseason game tonight.

Also FlyingRat you obviously don't follow football if you think the Jets are terrible. They had a very bad year last season but if you noticed the big changes the team is far from terrible. Their 3 biggest weaknesses were:
1. O-Line...they signed the best guard on the FA market and a more than serviceable lineman in Woody.
2. Run D...they traded for Kris Jenkins and signed Calvin Pace.
3. QB play...Favre.

I'm expecting 9 wins minimum.

I don't think anyone underrates it. the changes they made will improve them a lot. but they had an awful lot to improve on. they were a bad team last year, and a mediocre team who luckboxed their way to 10 wins 2 years ago. everyone who 2 years ago said "the Jets aren't as good as their record" were proven right last year.

I don't think it's so insulting to say that the changes they made will improve them from a bottom 8 ish team to an average team. I don't think they'll go from being a bad team to a 9 or 10 win team though.

I offer you 3 bets:


1. I bet you that NYJ will have more regular season wins than TB or GB, even money.

2. I will bet you two separate bets NYJ+ 1.5 wins against TB and NYJ +1.5 wins against GB

3. I will bet you two separate bets NYJ more wins than TB and NYJ more wins than GB but I get +150 odds.

Yeah, I understand that Rodgers isn't to blame, but how can the Packers turn down Brett Favre? It's like WTF!!!!??? You don't want him on your team, but you don't want him playing for another team? All the Packers had to do was say, "Look Brett, there is absolutely no chance you can be the starting QB here at GB." Trade him to a different team and end of story, but noooooooo "they" had to make a big deal out of it, all Brett wanted was to play for the GB Packers. Since that didn't happen he wanted to play for a different team, and they still wouldn't let it happen until Roger Goodell stepped in.

Instead it went something like this.
"Hmmm, Lots of upset Packer fans that rather have a future HOF QB that the fragile unproven kid we have on the sidelines. Lets make it look like we want him playing for us as a Back up, obv Brett wont go for that and he'll retire..... hmmm that didn't work out, lets just offer him $25 mill to stay retired, oh hey, I got another Idea, lets get fans excited, and make it look like theres a chance he can compete for the starting job."

Simply put: 16 games is a ridiculously small sample size.

Imagine if we divided the 2008 baseball season into 16 game mini-seasons...some teams would look unbeatable for some of these "seasons' but then be horrible then next, and it'd just be random variance.


So when I see posts like "Well the Jets are clearly worse than SD, Indy, NE, Jax, and Pit so they're at best looking at the #6 seed" I laugh because its not clear AT ALL in the NFL.

Its the same reason why I clean up every year on my "pick 6 teams to miss the playoffs" bet. Three straight years I've won money off of that bet, yet people keep thinking that its easy to pick 6 teams to miss the playoffs. And the reason why: Because they underestimate variance and overestimate last year's results. I've seen it happen year after year after year.

LOL@ "proven" last year and "luckboxed" 2 years ago. Why couldn't it have been bad luck last year? You're just randomly assigning degrees of luck to fit your argument.

Go look through my old posts...I gave a long and drawn out post about why they'd be good that year. It wasn't luck at all.

NYJ Estimated Wins (FO Metric)

2007: 5
2006: 7.6

I'm not randomly doing anything

I like the TB and GB sides, but not enough to pay +150. I'll do +110.

i dont disagree at all that they were a lucky team in 06. i never really felt they were that good back then. but going into this season, i thought they were better than the 06 team without a doubt, and this was before last night

last year the addition of a servicable rb (thomas jones) was offset by the loss of a major unit from the O-line: pete kendall. this devastated the growth of d'brick and nick mangold, and right guard was already a hole from the previous season. as a result the running game was no stronger than in 06 when they had a running back by committee.

people say last year the qb play ws bad, but also notice that in 06 pennington was sacked 30 times in all 16 games. last year, the offensive line gave up 53. its a little bit hard to have a good passing game when your line is terrible, and find it absolutely ludicrous that anyone says a guy is a terrible qb and bases his play off times when he has no protection. that shouldnt be an issue this year. i expect the new and improved line to give up no more than 27 sacks or so, maybe less now with favre.

another misconception is that the jets have no weapons. that really makes me laugh b/c tht couldnt be more wrong. leon washington is a playmaker who doesnt get the ball enough, he averaged 4.3 y/c in 06 and 5.0 y/c last year with the worse line. jerrico cotchery is on the rise, had his first 1000 yard season. coles is dinged up but whenever he plays he is a very solid consistent receiver. and oh ya that tight end the jets drafted? dustin keller?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=28fZ0_-q1bA

ya favre gets to throw to him.

and the defense was already decent, anchored by rhodes harris ellis and revis, and added kris jenkins, calvin pace who thrived in the 3-4, and vernon gholston. jenkins is obviously the biggest question mark, but he has been completely healthy through camp thus far.

ya the pats are obv still clear favorites in this division, but dont be surprised if the jets find a way to steal one from them this year. they almost did last year. any more questions?

I'll admit, I teared up a bit when they showed Favre's picture next to a JETS icon in the bottom corner of ESPN.

oh so you didnt see the screenshot of him wearing his Jets Jersey yet. it on the espn motion thing they make it look like he will be talking about the trade and than its just sal.

1: baseball is a much more high variance game. basketball is a better example, but naturally you chose baseball because it helps your point. if baseball and football had the same exact season with the same exact playoff structure (16 games, then byes, etc. as in football), baseball's champion would be on average worse than football's.

2: your 6 teams to miss the playoffs bet is a good one, but it has little to do with your argument. if it were pick 5 teams, i'm not sure you'd be a long-term winner in the bet. it's a 6 team parlay - for someone to be even money in that bet, they have to find 6 teams who are each around 88-89% to miss the playoffs. that's not common.

lol so because you happened to pick a fluke year where the jets played 3 wins above expected, you were right all along? were you predicting them to have 4 wins last year? when you make as many predictions as you do, some of them are bound to be right. the jets weren't a good team that year, and they weren't a good team last year, and they're not *that* good this year.

+130 is as low as I'd go because I don't think its that +EV for me enough that I'd want to tie up money for the entire season.

there is way more varience in baseball and you dont have the same starting pitcher out there every day

Well given the Jets current strategy, it's a good move. They took advantage of the Packers desperation and got a great deal.

Only prob is that the Jets strategy sucks. But that is for another thread.

I could be mistaken, but I believe the o/u on Jets reg season wins at one sportsbook PRIOR to the trade was 7.5.

Can anyone verify?

well w/e. I was just replying to people who said they thought the NYJ had passed GB/TB. I disagree, but not by enough to give huge odds.

i would take the bet at your oringal odds if i could afford the loss. whats the mim bet

They could clearly be a better team and still a dog to win more games than both of those teams.