Hope this is a level

Bdidd

This can't possibly be true. I'd need to see more before i'd be comfortable saying that there is ~no chance Kap turns out to be a complete bust.

YAC make up 46.5% of smith's total passing yards, 8th highest % in football. 926 air yards. only fitzpatrick and ponder have fewer among full time qbs. fewest deep balls thrown this season, 3rd fewest last season, his WPA/G is the same as cam newton and ryan fitzpatrick for ****'s sake. tell me what exactly i'm missing here that makes a game managing qb who's less relevant to his team's success than the team's defense and the team's running game (again, the only qb among the 8 division leaders this can be attributed to) irreplacable

put another way: if you put kaepernick in literally the exact same 15 yards and under offense smith is in, with the same ratio of deep passes, do you really believe smith will be more successful than kaepernick?

edit: also i wonder, how many of the people who voted alex smith also laugh at coaches every single time they punt or kick a FG on 4th and short where the correct decision by a marginal EV amount is to go for it?

also all those stats mentioned ignore sacks which is very relevant wrt smith because he apparently decided last season to always take the sack over ever attempting a risky pass.

Smith is like 25 of his last 27, 4tds 0ints. Im a big fan of kaep. I'd go with Smith, easier to make the switch in the future if needed.

I think smith starts an Kaeps gonna continue to get intermittent playtime like we saw earlier this yr.

SRM mentioned it directly in post #45.

Never said he's irreplaceable, don't think he is. Just think LOL sample size when people watch one game and think you're suddenly going to be great.
Mark Sanchez's opening game this year: 48-28 win, 19-27, 266 Yards, 3TD, 1INT. Not that different from Kaep's performance last night. Our Chiefs QB's 1st career starts:
Matt Cassel's first 2 starts in '08: 29-41, 317 Yards, 0INT.
Brady Quinn's first career start: 23-35, 239 Yards, 2TD, 0INT.

I don't think I care much about YAC or deep balls because you expect mostly YAC with lots of short slants and screens. Whether he gets 8 Y/A with deep balls or short ones, as long as he can maintain that then I'm happy. Pats and Brady seem to get by with an extremely high rate of short slants up the middle and it works great.

I dunno. I could see it going either way. Kaep certainly may be a better QB than Smith. All I'm saying is Smith has done pretty well on his own so far in the last 2 years and I trust that sample more than last night.

I dunno what this has to do with anything. I often criticize coaches for punting too often. Seems like a much more clear decision to go for it on 4th and 3 in opponent's territory than it is to choose a starting QB here, which is harder.

Didn't notice the sack rate. That's a good point.

mark sanchez's first start of the season was against the bills who have an atrocious pass defense. i dunno who cassel and brady were facing in their first starts for the chiefs but i assume it wasn't a team with a pass defense anywhere near as good as chicago's this year.

Not to nitpick, but he did and basically won the AFCCG against the Steelers in '01 when Brady got injured.

It's a tough decision. I would start Smith again but put him on a shorter leash than usual.

Also I think that was kind of considered a weak year for QBs. Rodgers I guess wasn't considered proven enough and had the Tedford QB reputation. But overall, in terms of hype of QBs taken #1 since 2000, imo it goes something like

Luck
Vick
Eli
Palmer
Stafford
Newton
Bradford
Russell
Smith
Carr

With RG3 between Vick and Eli. Disclaimer: I'm not the biggest college football fan, this is just kinda how I feel each guy was hyped. Also if Leinart had left a year earlier with his stock slightly higher, pretty sure he would have gone 1 over Smith

LOL at bringing Brady into the discussion in this instance. Brady is top 15 (at least) all time at his position.

That's the thing though: Kaep could be as good as Brady long-term. We just don't know.

It's really easy to recall QBs who were really hyped in college/recruiting and were going to be great, but were terrible. It's easy to recall Tom Brady who was a 6th round backup who turned out to be fantastic. All of it is LOL sample size in the first few games.

well it was kaepernick's 2nd game. started 1/4 to finish the 2nd quarter and went 10/13 in the 2nd half + OT for 114 with 6 rushes for 52 yards and a td. not sure how you wanna judge the 7 throws vs the giants, but the point is it's not as simple as saying "well it's only been 1 start." not to say that this is a significant sample size by any means, but the basis isn't 100% on just 1 game against the bears

well if that's the case and that's the offense you want to run regardless of qb, it's certainly of benefit to have a qb with kaepernick's running ability to increase the overall YPP

alex smith's success over the last 2 years is more a product of jim harbaugh than it is of alex smith. even in smith's best pre-harbaugh season he was incredibly erratic and inconsistent on a week to week basis

this (albeit silly) comparison is more to suggest going with smith is the equivalent of a 4th and 1 midfield punt

Good thing that was so obvious back then!

Yeah Smith was terrible before 2011. Not sure if it was Harbaugh or Smith just maturing (likely Harbaugh). Kaep certainly has more potential with running the ball and definitely scrambles better.

I'm much more on the fence now but my thinking is largely "Don't fix what isn't broken." SF is easily a top 5 team (probably top 2) with Smith so far this season and I'm scared something goes wrong by messing with the system, e.g. Kaep starts struggling a little and team ends up divided between the two QBs and you have morale issues.

This. You know you have a reasonable chance at a SB with Smith. That's about the best you can do. CK may be a slight improvement (and I mean in terms of SB odds, not quality of play), but he also might ruin the season. I don't think you have enough info to know. Given that the upside is not as valuable as the downside you need to be very confident before you make the move.

And LOL @ everyone posting smug gif replies that have nothing to do with this situation. If the 49ers had no shot at a SB this year and CK put together several good performances in a row, then I would make the change. If it was preseason and neither QB had proven themselves capable of winning within the current team then I would give the job to CK. With the current situation you have to stick with Smith.

or play Kaep one more game under the guise of concussion recovery then reassess, which is pretty much freerolling imo

I hope this was intentional.

i figure this is extremely likely.

considering alex smith was cleared to practice since wednesday i think there's at least a small chance that smith was fine to start yesterday and harbaugh used the concussion as an excuse to start kaepernick without causing a controversy.

There was a play last night where Kaep was able to evade the rush, exit the pocket, and toss the ball out of bounds. No risky pass. Smith would have been sacked.

I've seen this pointed out multiple times. Aside from the obvious sample size issue and the issue of selectively highlighting his best performances, it still isn't that impressive!

Smith using the sample size you're citing: 25/27 for 304 yards(11.2 ypa), 6 sacks for -37 yards(267 total yards on 33 dropbacks = 8.1 yards per dropback), 4 TDs, 0 INTs

Kapernick last game: 16/23 for 243 yards(10.6 ypa), 1 sack for -7 yards(236 total yards on 24 dropbacks = 9.8 yards per dropback), 2 TDs, 0 INT


I mean, it must really say something when one side can selectively pick a small portion of the sample size we have to go on and it still isn't better than what the other player did in his only start(to be fair I will point out that Kapernick's season long numbers aren't as good, but its kinda unfair to judge a backup QB who has to come in midgame imo...getting starter's reps during practice seems to help a ton)


you're shifting the goalposts here. Nobody thinks he is great, nor did anyone ever say anything close to that. People think that he will give the 49ers the opportunity to actually run a normal NFL offense instead of babying their QB, and that alongside perhaps the best supporting cast in the entire NFL will make their team very good.



And all I'm saying is that I disagree completely and entirely with the bolded, and I think many casual fans* have a tendency to look at Smith's stats and come to the conclusion that hes actually decent. In reality, a close look at advanced stats coupled with a look at the 49ers talent level around their QB and a look at their scheme makes it very evident that Smith is not good at all. In particular, he benefits from a great o-line, the best run game in the NFL(on a yards per attempt basis), a scheme that asks him to do very little, and a defense that constantly gives him the ball back quickly and often times in good field position. Moreover, his stats are skewed by the fact that many non-advanced stats don't take sacks into account, and he has been instructed to take few chances and just take the sack rather than try to make a play.


*again I hate how condescending that sounds because I'm not trying to insult people's intelligence in using that phrase


I'm not positive, but I believe he brought that up because he thinks there may be a high correlation with the way many people don't understand how to properly evaluate when to go for it on 4th down and the way many people mistakenly look at Smith's stats and conclude that hes a decent QB.


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i dunno how true this is. unbelievable final 5 minutes against the saints aside, smith was largely useless in the playoffs. 1 first down in 60 minutes against the giants is just awful

this isn't directed at you or any poster ITT really, just the general tone, but that we're seriously saying "you can't bench smith because he gives you the best chance at a super bowl" is utterly laughable. the niners are 20-5-1 in the last year and a half despite the most limited passing game in all of football. a massive dose of slants and runs with the occasional play action deep pass isn't a harbaugh offense staple, it's just an offense he built to suit his qb. it's a different offense than what luck ran, what johnson ran, and what kaepernick ran/will run eventually. if smith could throw deep with any measure of competence the niners would throw deep considerably more than they have to this point.

in short, the niners aren't a super bowl contender because of alex smith, and any suggestion to the contrary is just wrong, and continuing to start a replacement level qb because you're afraid the young guy will **** it all up is (silly comparison be damned) punting on 4th and 1 from the 50

Kaeps skillset is obviously more attractive. Would you rather have kaep get some expierence before the playoffs and put more of his tape out there or would you rather roll with smith for now and surprise bring kaep out at some pt during the playoffs?

Worked for the Bills and Rob Johnson!

Where do you get these stats, 9ers had 15 first downs against the Giants, but were 1-13 on 3rd down. alex also played fine early on in the saints game including a long "bomb" to VD.