ESPN $1,000,000 Streak picks GB over NO - Page 4 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

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ESPN $1,000,000 Streak picks GB over NO

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11-25-2008 , 02:09 AM

#76

Karak

ELIte

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 62,724

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobboFitos

I have no doubt in my mind - literally no doubt - I could get 500,000 tomorrow to hedge if this situation ever happened to me

You dabble in high stakes, right? It's a lot easier for a guy like you than a guy like me who was never anything more than a mid-stakes grinder

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11-25-2008 , 02:09 AM

#77

BobboFitos

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Quote:

Originally Posted by The4thFilm

If true that is the dumbest thing I've ever heard. That puts the Devil Rays at 12% to win the WS...I know you pay a premium for variance but that is absurd.

im assuming he didn't equally hedge both sides.

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11-25-2008 , 02:11 AM

#78

BobboFitos

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Karak567

You dabble in high stakes, right? It's a lot easier for a guy like you than a guy like me who was never anything more than a mid-stakes grinder

I'd like to think when I play poker I do more than "dabble" but yeah, one of the many great things about 2p2 is if this sort of situation ever rolled around i think id be covered.

im pretty sure even midstakes grinders this could work.

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11-25-2008 , 02:22 AM

#79

Pudge714

Modding All Day

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 39,104

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobboFitos

moneyline obv

Tie for busto ldo.

Quote

11-25-2008 , 02:30 AM

#80

bones

Winner of 'The Toughest SNG of All Time'

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 10,390

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobboFitos

I have no doubt in my mind - literally no doubt - I could get 500,000 tomorrow to hedge if this situation ever happened to me

ya. toughest part would be getting 500k worth of action down that quickly

Quote

11-25-2008 , 02:31 AM

#81

anononon

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Quote:

Are you saying insurance is better, because people don't have the capital or that it is objectively more +EV?

Attempting to accumulate $400,000+ and get all of that money down on an NFL side in a day is going to be basically impossible for all but the best sports betting syndicate owners.

Simply selling it to an insurance company for the loss will probably yield better value and will save you hours of work getting the capital and placing the bets - I find it hard to believe anyone could get that much action down without serious problems happening as a result. It has to be better expected growth, too.

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11-25-2008 , 02:32 AM

#82

anononon

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BobboFitos

I have no doubt in my mind - literally no doubt - I could get 500,000 tomorrow to hedge if this situation ever happened to me

I could too, but that's not the point. Who will take your bet?

Quote

11-25-2008 , 02:43 AM

#83

BobboFitos

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Quote:

Originally Posted by kyleb

I could too, but that's not the point. Who will take your bet?

you could always prop bet HSNL and MSNL offering like 2:1 on all vegas lines but must bet 50k or so, you could get 500k in action doing that

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11-25-2008 , 02:54 AM

#84

zethro

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 236

Kyleb how easy would it be to work out a deal with an insurance company on something like this?

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11-25-2008 , 02:56 AM

#85

anononon

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BobboFitos

you could always prop bet HSNL and MSNL offering like 2:1 on all vegas lines but must bet 50k or so, you could get 500k in action doing that

This would probably be more costly than an insurance company buying your risk. Furthermore, there exists a non-zero chance these HSNL/MSNLers will stiff you, which can be estimated and figured into the price.

Quote:

Originally Posted by zethro

Kyleb how easy would it be to work out a deal with an insurance company on something like this?

Extremely; they do this sort of thing all the time.

Quote

11-25-2008 , 03:07 AM

#86

TT_fold

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Still kind of sick to imagine actually being in this situation though. What if you had 24 right now and there were a couple people hot on your tail with 23, in which case you'd probably want to bet an NBA game that occurs roughly 17 hours from now?

I'd probably throw up a thread in BBV paying people to research the logistics of selling this to an insurance company.

Quote

11-25-2008 , 03:10 AM

#87

UATrewqaz

banned

Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 9,699

Gather every dime you can get ur mits on (hopefully around 500k) and bet it on the Saints straight up at the nearest casino.

Profit?

Quote

11-25-2008 , 03:29 AM

#88

pvn

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Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by kyleb

Extremely; they do this sort of thing all the time.

Is there a loophole here somewhere that would let my allstate agent be my bookie?

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11-25-2008 , 03:38 AM

#89

anononon

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Quote:

Originally Posted by pvn

Is there a loophole here somewhere that would let my allstate agent be my bookie?

They are just buying out the risk of the ESPN prize.

Quote

11-25-2008 , 03:48 AM

#90

yeotaJMU

Shines ELIte's Shoes

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 22,410

maybe the guy shoulda just made a better bet

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11-25-2008 , 06:21 AM

#91

HajiShirazu

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 4,688

What would be sick is if the guy hedged but won the espn mill, then took a net loss of 100k or something because he couldn't write off the hedge on his taxes.

Quote

11-25-2008 , 08:49 AM

#92

LFS

emo gaylord

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 21,863

It has never been a problem for me and never will, but is there a standard max money-line bet at Vegas sportsbooks?

"Also, what if you hedge moneyline and it's a tie?" - Donovan McNabb

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11-25-2008 , 08:55 AM

#93

anononon

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Yes; the exact amount depends on the sportsbook in question. It would be $3,000 max for unknown people typically.

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11-25-2008 , 10:27 AM

#94

Kneel B4 Zod

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Quote:

Originally Posted by kyleb

They are just buying out the risk of the ESPN prize.

they are also almost certainly already on the ESPN side. it's not like ESPN is on the hook for a million here, they bought some insurance policy for X dollars to cover any expected payouts from the promo.

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11-25-2008 , 10:36 AM

#95

anononon

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Wat? There might be more than one insurance company in the world that will insure this for you.

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11-25-2008 , 11:23 AM

#96

Kneel B4 Zod

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Quote:

Originally Posted by kyleb

Wat? There might be more than one insurance company in the world that will insure this for you.

no, this stuff is common. as long as the inputs are quantifiable, insurers will take a cut for this business.

it's not much different than a typical furniture store promotion (if the Red Sox win the World Series this year, previous furniture purchases are free!) which are typically insured

unless I'm misunderstanding something basic about the promo

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11-25-2008 , 11:25 AM

#97

anononon

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Oh, obviously the promo is insured. I thought you were saying because of this, the insurance company would not take the other side.

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11-25-2008 , 11:26 AM

#98

Riverman

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1. Insurance companies (but w/ only one day could be tough)

2. HSNL. You'd get the 500k in like 2 hours. Much better to just bet with them than to actually borrow the money though because its hard to spread around 500k of action in a day.

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11-25-2008 , 11:27 AM

#99

BobboFitos

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Quote:

Originally Posted by HajiShirazu

What would be sick is if the guy hedged but won the espn mill, then took a net loss of 100k or something because he couldn't write off the hedge on his taxes.

except you can

Quote

11-25-2008 , 11:28 AM

#100

BobboFitos

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Los Feliz Slim

It has never been a problem for me and never will, but is there a standard max money-line bet at Vegas sportsbooks?

"Also, what if you hedge moneyline and it's a tie?" - Donovan McNabb

you can buy half points typically at a cost of 5% more vig.

"Yes; the exact amount depends on the sportsbook in question. It would be $3,000 max for unknown people typically."

On NFL games I'm pretty sure (at the Hilton) you can bet 10k/game/

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