English Football 2018-19, Football that is already Home - Page 12 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

xg can be used as justification for stuff like 'city ran really well to get to 100, unlikely to get close this year'

not sure what the fat bloke line is on city 18/19 but gona go ahead and make an educated guess that alan shearer is predicting an undefeated season

07-23-2018 , 08:28 PM

#277

LFC_USA

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BOIDS

I predict Man City will get less than 100 points this season!

I also fat bloke analyze that City steamroll **** teams and are full of frauds who are locks to go out in Europe and **** their pants at magical Anfield

So the model tells us city "ran good" last season. What relevance does that have?

07-23-2018 , 08:33 PM

#278

BOIDS

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it has relevance wrt city's o/u points total, relevance to predicting city's title equity, relevance to predicting the title equity of teams around them..

07-23-2018 , 08:34 PM

#279

LFC_USA

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Quote:

Originally Posted by BOIDS

it has relevance wrt city's o/u points total, relevance to predicting city's title equity, relevance to predicting the title equity of teams around them..

For this upcoming season when there's turnover amongst their competitors? Let's see the xG 18-19 table then and compare at seasons end

07-23-2018 , 08:39 PM

#280

BOIDS

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i note that the 18/19 O/Us that der markt is offering bears a closer resemblance to the 17/18 xPts table than to the 17/18 table table

i reckon this is bc the xPts table has greater predictive value than the table table, because it gives a more accurate picture of the true strength of a team via the stripping away of some variability/randomness

Last edited by BOIDS; 07-23-2018 at 08:46 PM.

07-23-2018 , 08:44 PM

#281

BOIDS

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anyway the core of this confab hasn't changed for like 18 months: the xG deniers keep on with this idea that the very upstanding friends of xG club place 100% blind trust and 100% emphasis on xG, when that is in fact not the case

07-23-2018 , 08:58 PM

#282

lenC

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xG has just replaced checking shots/possession after a game you didn't watch. No need to predict **** in the summer as it's the only time the league winner markt treats everyone as starting from the same place of 0 pts. Think we got the sporting index o/u-s during the season too but injuries and stuff might rip the past/future spacetime so bust out understat whenever it confirms the narrative you're interested in.

07-23-2018 , 09:20 PM

#283

mw828

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DuckSauce

Naive is the term they used. Definitely feels a little condescending but not sure what would be a better shorthand way to describe simpler shot based xG models.

No idea who is on their pod, but this sounds like pure, unfiltered knutsen smugness. Guy is insufferable.

07-23-2018 , 09:22 PM

#284

bazooka87

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xG, racism and politics? HURRY UP FOOTBALL

07-23-2018 , 09:44 PM

#285

MindFckr

Classic Arsenal GHW

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Henry is the new manager at Villa

07-23-2018 , 10:54 PM

#286

bazooka87

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Not yet, Bruce hasn't even met with the owners yet. lol if it does happen though, who fails harder - him or Lampard

07-24-2018 , 01:11 AM

#287

PoseidonCubed

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Liverpool

Ozil's agent absolutely slaughtered Hoeness. Read his statement if you haven't already.

I love this dude. He straight up murdered Keown in cold blood last season too after he made a bunch of stupid comments. Also, I can’t believe Hoeness is still Bayern president.

07-24-2018 , 01:39 AM

#288

MindFckr

Classic Arsenal GHW

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 25,612

Qatari slaveowners are organizing the next World Cup... shouldn't we let the whole moral thing go?

Quote:

Originally Posted by bazooka87

Not yet, Bruce hasn't even met with the owners yet. lol if it does happen though, who fails harder - him or Lampard

True. I've just skimmed it through and it says that Bruce is pretty much done for and Henry and the club reached a "verbal agreement"..whatever that means.

07-24-2018 , 01:53 AM

#289

bazooka87

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Yeah I've seen the same, no idea why he'd want to go to Villa for his first gig though. FFP is a total joke but seems like they're in trouble there, have already lost a bunch of players + backroom staff, likely to lose Grealish/Chester, no idea if Xia or the new billionaires are the ones running it or how much they'll actually invest. No thanks

07-24-2018 , 03:23 AM

#290

MindFckr

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Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 25,612

Especially after the World Cup performance will Belgium. I'd think he would attract clubs with more stability to put it nicely.

I guess the answer , as in most cases, is that he will get paid ****tons of money by the new owners

07-24-2018 , 03:49 AM

#291

Elrazor

losing momentum

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 13,809

Villa trying to rival Birmingham and Derby for the title of most idiotic owners in the Midlands.

07-24-2018 , 04:09 AM

#292

Hoopie1

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Quote:

Originally Posted by LostOstrich

my even better data has them at 7th

A+

Quote:

Originally Posted by MindFckr

Henry is the new manager at Villa

07-24-2018 , 04:20 AM

#293

Hoopie1

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Hot take: we're going to leak a **** load of goals this season.

07-24-2018 , 04:28 AM

#294

Hoopie1

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07-24-2018 , 04:32 AM

#295

ChopSueyyy

formerly IRunWorse

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 18,615

Quote:

Mourinho on Pogba to ESPN: “I don't think it's about us getting the best out of him, it's about him giving the best he has to give.”

mou 3rd season meltdown is well under way

07-24-2018 , 05:05 AM

#296

Tall Paul

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DuckSauce

So on the new statsbomb podcast they talk about how their new xG model with the better data they've collected that accounts for defensive and keeper positioning has Burnley at 9th/10th from last season as opposed to most naive xg models have them at 15th/16th.

Does this mean they were better than Southampton after all?

It's almost as if every improvement to the xG model gets it closer to the actual end of season league table. Maybe when it's perfect it'll be exactly the same.

07-24-2018 , 05:14 AM

#297

LFC_USA

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Tall Paul

LOL

07-24-2018 , 05:25 AM

#298

O.A.F.K.1.1

Ted Patrick

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 27,952

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tall Paul

You have probably hit on what is going to be a methodological problem for people creating Xg models, which is to add data which retrospectively gets Xg closer to last seasons LT and to exclude data which moves away from it, even though the latter might be more accurate at removing run good.

07-24-2018 , 05:32 AM

#299

Cinarocket

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I'm guessing the old & naive xG models were just a prank

07-24-2018 , 05:33 AM

#300

MindFckr

Classic Arsenal GHW

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 25,612

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChopSueyyy

mou 3rd season meltdown is well under way

You call it meltdown. He calls it his business model. He must have made 100+million euros with the sacking fees alone right? + he wins **** the first two seasons, of course he leaves the clubs in a bad state, but his own resume is pretty impressive

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