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English Football 2017-2018 English Football 2017-2018

01-23-2018 , 07:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Paul
That's OK then.

By the way, I reserve the right not to answer these logic questions if they are designed to trap me.
I wouldn’t do that. Open questions for the thread.
01-23-2018 , 07:17 AM
can someone pm me when its safe to open this thread again
01-23-2018 , 07:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aoFrantic
Because that was the % the only time a team has won this year being hopelessly destroyed in possession. I typo'd and it was 23% fwiw. There is no trend of teams doing better with a decrease in possession. Teams just are getting ****ing throttled when playing teams like City this year.

"Don't play defensively" is pretty subjective. Most teams are just getting crushed, tactics be damned.
It is subjective, but it was the basis of Joe's question so in order to answer it we'd need to establish what playing defensively is.

You seemed to pluck 24% possession out of the air as your idea of playing defensively.
01-23-2018 , 07:43 AM
More fun with variance and to beat a dead horse about "shooting skill."
Ronaldo has the most shots in Europe, most per 90 minutes, his highest career % of shots inside the area, the most shots of anyone inside the area and the 3rd highest xg in La Liga behind Suarez and Messi. He only had 4 goals coming into this week where he lit up a bit amid a blowout.
01-23-2018 , 07:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aoFrantic
More fun with variance and to beat a dead horse about "shooting skill."
Ronaldo has the most shots in Europe, most per 90 minutes, his highest career % of shots inside the area, the most shots of anyone inside the area and the 3rd highest xg in La Liga behind Suarez and Messi. He only had 4 goals coming into this week where he lit up a bit amid a blowout.
So is your conclusion that he's playing well but "running bad"?

Mine would be that he's not playing as well as he could or that he's playing well up to the point where he needs to finish off the chances, although I haven't seen any of the football so it's based purely on the stats you've given.

We'd probably both be right to some extent.
01-23-2018 , 08:19 AM
It’s way more likely that he’s running bad than that he all of a sudden forgot how to finish. That’s not really something you lose as you get older as a footballer. And I have watched several of his games, he has been incredibly unlucky. This Ronaldo is declining narrative is getting way overblown.
01-23-2018 , 08:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aoFrantic
More fun with variance and to beat a dead horse about "shooting skill."
Ronaldo has the most shots in Europe, most per 90 minutes, his highest career % of shots inside the area, the most shots of anyone inside the area and the 3rd highest xg in La Liga behind Suarez and Messi. He only had 4 goals coming into this week where he lit up a bit amid a blowout.
Variance in La Liga. CL goals raining in.
01-23-2018 , 08:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Paul

And yes, before someone tries to misrepresent what I'm saying again, I obviously understand and agree that one individual result in isolation doesn't show that the winning team is better that the losers, but I believe that a full season is enough to even out the variance/luck enough to tell us which teams are better than others with a sufficient level of confidence (certainly better than 14 games anyway).
Were you asleep during Leicester? Or do you believe they were the best team in the league that season?
01-23-2018 , 08:48 AM
tall paul itt

Spoiler:


Also reminded me about the edited version of the scene from "you only move twice". Deserves some credit "I start fires"
01-23-2018 , 08:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Paul
Again, going over old ground. Of course I get it, but I disagree with certain aspects of it, as I've explained time after time.

Unless I'm mistaken (and please correct me if I am), the method used to test the accuracy of these models is to reverse engineer them and compare them to the results over a period of time. If that's the case, how does that make them a better indicator than the results themselves?

And yes, before someone tries to misrepresent what I'm saying again, I obviously understand and agree that one individual result in isolation doesn't show that the winning team is better that the losers, but I believe that a full season is enough to even out the variance/luck enough to tell us which teams are better than others with a sufficient level of confidence (certainly better than 14 games anyway).
What about leagues with ten teams who play 18 games a season? How about champions league groups? Would 37 games be enough? 35?
01-23-2018 , 09:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JMurder3
Is the difference that he would be under control for 2 more years? Unless they planned on selling him during that time, I don't see a large economic difference as giving him 4 years at £300k per week is the same as giving him a 2 year extension at £480k/week, which is supposedly untenable.
i think bolded is the key. alexis was never ever ever signing a 2 year 480k extension age 29 for arse when this mun offer is on the table. getting a 29 year old player to sign a 2 year contract for a non-excessive weekly wage would be very peculiar full stop, and most advantageous for the team

worth noting that mun would almost certainly prefer to have him for 3.5 years instead of 4.5. he's v unlikely to be worth 450k/wk in his final year(s) but are expecting him to provide >450k/wk value in his earlier year(s) to make up for it.

so why would he sign a 4 year extension age 27 for 300k when its basically the same thing in total £?

1) maybe it was offered, and rejected (prolly not, lol arsene)

2) footballers are traditionally very risk averse for whatever reason. alexis could've put himself in an even stronger negotiating position by running his contract down entirely, but if he does his ACL between now and the end of the season then no one is signing him in the summer (well, mun do sometimes give 6 figure/week gift to people with no ACLs but i think u gotta be swedish). that 450/wk for 4.5 years contract aint happening, ever

also i have a private suspicion that frequent contract renewals, even tho the player has a long time left on his deal (lets call it the spuds model), is optimal for player's agents.. so maybe players en masse are being, ahem, advised to be more risk averse than they 'ought' to be

the only footballer i'm aware of that consistently ran down his contract was flamini, and he is now saving the world through his investments in biofuel. or something. so there we go.
01-23-2018 , 09:04 AM
QUESTION

Three logicians, AO, lenC and BOIDS enter a bar.

There are two kinds of people who frequent this bar. A Mourinho, who always tells the truth and a Douche (short for Dyche), who always lies.

Today two friends called Sean and Jose are having a drink together.

The first logician, AO, orders a drink and makes small talk with both. At the end of the conversation he asks Sean, "Are you both Mourinhos?" Sean answered (yes or no), but AO couldn't figure out the type of each.

The second logician, lenC, orders a drink and makes small talk with both. At the end of the conversation he asks Sean, "Are you both Douches?" Sean answered (yes or no), but lenC couldn't figure out the type of each.

The third logician, BOIDS, orders a drink and makes small talk with both. At the end of the conversation he asks Sean, "Is it the case that you are a Mourinho and Jose is a Douche?" Sean answered (yes or no), but BOIDS couldn't figure out the type of each and didn't want to go on gut feeling.

Also present at the bar was another famous logician, Martymc1. A teetotaller and very observant, he overheard each conversation and was able to figure out the identities of both Sean and Jose. What was his conclusion?


NOTE: Ignore the fact that three logicians entered a bar together and ordering drinks separately, instead of in one round.
Answers in spoilers please.
01-23-2018 , 09:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by arjun13
Were you asleep during Leicester? Or do you believe they were the best team in the league that season?
They were the best performing team, yes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NicReynolds
What about leagues with ten teams who play 18 games a season? How about champions league groups? Would 37 games be enough? 35?
Obviously the fewer games, the less confidence we'd have that the final table would be indicative of relative team strength, so that's why 38 games is better than the 14 games you suggested.

I see you (and everyone else for that matter) have ignored the most pertinent part of that post:

Quote:
Unless I'm mistaken (and please correct me if I am), the method used to test the accuracy of these models is to reverse engineer them and compare them to the results over a period of time. If that's the case, how does that make them a better indicator than the results themselves?
I also thought you were out of the discussion
01-23-2018 , 09:08 AM
01-23-2018 , 09:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChopSueyyy
can someone pm me when its safe to open this thread again
+1. Jesus, guys...
01-23-2018 , 09:11 AM
Sigh. We looked utter **** against Swansea. Everything and everyone so ****ing slow.
01-23-2018 , 09:13 AM
How is douche short for Dyche? It has more letters.
01-23-2018 , 09:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZAIDS
QUESTION

Three logicians, AO, lenC and BOIDS enter a bar.

There are two kinds of people who frequent this bar. A Mourinho, who always tells the truth and a Douche (short for Dyche), who always lies.

Today two friends called Sean and Jose are having a drink together.

The first logician, AO, orders a drink and makes small talk with both. At the end of the conversation he asks Sean, "Are you both Mourinhos?" Sean answered (yes or no), but AO couldn't figure out the type of each.

The second logician, lenC, orders a drink and makes small talk with both. At the end of the conversation he asks Sean, "Are you both Douches?" Sean answered (yes or no), but lenC couldn't figure out the type of each.

The third logician, BOIDS, orders a drink and makes small talk with both. At the end of the conversation he asks Sean, "Is it the case that you are a Mourinho and Jose is a Douche?" Sean answered (yes or no), but BOIDS couldn't figure out the type of each and didn't want to go on gut feeling.

Also present at the bar was another famous logician, Martymc1. A teetotaller and very observant, he overheard each conversation and was able to figure out the identities of both Sean and Jose. What was his conclusion?


NOTE: Ignore the fact that three logicians entered a bar together and ordering drinks separately, instead of in one round.
Answers in spoilers please.
Spoiler:
I refuse to answer a question that uses such a childish nickname for such a great man.

But I've seen Labyrinth so will have no problems answering it correctly.
01-23-2018 , 09:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteBlow
How is douche short for Dyche? It has more letters.
01-23-2018 , 09:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by heh
Sigh. We looked utter **** against Swansea. Everything and everyone so ****ing slow.
You're wrong. You were really good according to the stats.
01-23-2018 , 09:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by daca
american odds are just incomprehensible. how can you get something so simple so wrong?
I only got into sports betting once I had moved to the States, I find yank odds much easier than decimal odds, just what I'm used to.

If I see -240 or whatever I immediately have a feel for it, but 1.58 or something I do not.
01-23-2018 , 09:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by joejoe1337
Other than ‘Green’, best episode.
01-23-2018 , 09:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGramuel
I only got into sports betting once I had moved to the States, I find yank odds much easier than decimal odds, just what I'm used to.

If I see -240 or whatever I immediately have a feel for it, but 1.58 or something I do not.
Fractional odds FTW
01-23-2018 , 09:34 AM
01-23-2018 , 09:34 AM
decimal >>> fractional >>>>>>>>> whatever you call that american nonsense

      
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