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01-21-2018 , 06:40 PM
#17226
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteBlow
I think TP's argument is that points are the only fact based measurement.
Everything else is just opinion based on any other measurements, apart from points.
All those other measurements don't get ranked in a table that actually matters.
Kind of

Quote:
Originally Posted by royalblue
How are goals scored and conceded not fact?

The whole reason why football uses points is that if we used goal difference to determine the champion (like quidditch!), it'd be boring more often. Guess why that is? Because it reflects team quality better. Same reason tennis uses sets and games instead of first to 100 points wins.
Fine, lets use goal difference. Burnley are still (significantly) better than Southampton.
01-21-2018 , 06:41 PM
#17227
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Quote:
Originally Posted by royalblue
How are goals scored and conceded not fact?

The whole reason why football uses points is that if we used goal difference to determine the champion (like quidditch!), it'd be boring more often. Guess why that is? Because it reflects team quality better. Same reason tennis uses sets and games instead of first to 100 points wins.
He's just starting from a false premise. He thinks wins are more true than goals/shots/every other data point, thus they're worth more. Because we arbitrarily place more importance on x, x should be more important.
01-21-2018 , 06:42 PM
#17228
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Quote:
Originally Posted by royalblue
How are goals scored and conceded not fact?

The whole reason why football uses points is that if we used goal difference to determine the champion (like quidditch!), it'd be boring more often. Guess why that is? Because it reflects team quality better. Same reason tennis uses sets and games instead of first to 100 points wins.
On goals conceded, Burnley are 4th.
On goal difference, they are 8th.

It seems people are confusing 'better' with 'more entertaining'.
01-21-2018 , 06:42 PM
#17229
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Paul
Kind of



Fine, lets use goal difference. Burnley are still (significantly) better than Southampton.
Y u no bet me then?
01-21-2018 , 06:43 PM
#17230
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lawro league vs real league for more accurate ranking of team quality would be an interesting one to ask god

he has burnley at 12 which still seems a little high tbh
01-21-2018 , 06:44 PM
#17231
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joejoe1337
Y u no bet me then?
I'll bet you that we'll have a better goal difference at the end of the season.
01-21-2018 , 06:46 PM
#17232
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Paul
I'll bet you that we'll have a better goal difference at the end of the season.
I bet you from today until the end of the season, Southampton have a better GD than Burnley.
01-21-2018 , 06:46 PM
#17233
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I'm probably over thinking it but there is an obvious ontological contradiction in the Dr market better than final league position debate in that the market price is an expression of final league position.

This is least present before any games are played which is why I asked if Dr market fans considered the pre season price a better indication of team goodness than the end of season table?
01-21-2018 , 06:47 PM
#17234
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aoFrantic
He's just starting from a false premise. He thinks wins are more true than goals/shots/every other data point, thus they're worth more. Because we arbitrarily place more importance on x, x should be more important.
The league table isn't based on points arbitrarily.
01-21-2018 , 06:47 PM
#17235
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joejoe1337
I bet you from today until the end of the season, Southampton have a better GD than Burnley.
No, sample size too small.

How will that prove it either way, if the last 24 games haven't proved it?
01-21-2018 , 06:49 PM
#17236
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteBlow
The league table isn't based on points arbitrarily.
I'm sure there are posters itt, as least Hoopie who were alive when you only got 2 points for a win. (The old points system, would have Southampton and Burnley separated by one point, oddly enough!)
Last edited by aoFrantic; 01-21-2018 at 06:54 PM.
01-21-2018 , 06:51 PM
#17237
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteBlow
The league table isn't based on points arbitrarily.
You're right, it's based on points because they're more noisy than GD.
01-21-2018 , 06:52 PM
#17238
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BOIDS
lawro league vs real league for more accurate ranking of team quality would be an interesting one to ask god

he has burnley at 12 which still seems a little high tbh
He has Southampton 7th
01-21-2018 , 06:54 PM
#17239
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Quote:
Originally Posted by royalblue
You're right, it's based on points because they're more noisy than GD.
Do you honestly believe the league should be based on GD? Really?
01-21-2018 , 06:55 PM
#17240
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteBlow
He has Southampton 7th
ya soton above burnley is a good start

not sure about mun>city tho
01-21-2018 , 06:56 PM
#17241
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteBlow
Do you honestly believe the league should be based on GD? Really?
No, he doesn't and he explicitly laid out why he both thought that and why it isn't.
01-21-2018 , 07:00 PM
#17242
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BOIDS
dont forget that william hill have to make sure their 600+ employees get paid
Still seems fairly small beer for having a license to print money. Also fixed odds betting machines.
01-21-2018 , 07:01 PM
#17243
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aoFrantic
No, he doesn't and he explicitly laid out why he both thought that and why it isn't.
Phew. Because Spurs would've won the last two seasons.
01-21-2018 , 07:01 PM
#17244
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aoFrantic
No, he doesn't and he explicitly laid out why he both thought that and why it isn't.
Yep.
01-21-2018 , 07:03 PM
#17245
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tall Paul
How will that prove it either way, if the last 24 games haven't proved it?
Can't anyone answer this?

How will Southampton getting more points/better GD in the next 14 games prove that they are a better team, if them getting fewer in the last 24 doesn't prove that they aren't?
01-21-2018 , 07:06 PM
#17246
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Quote:
Originally Posted by royalblue
Yep.
Posts like Pete's and latest TP post show they're not even trying to understand or reply honestly. Wasted time replying while watching the pats win. Oh well, off to the bar to wear some purple.
01-21-2018 , 07:06 PM
#17247
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It doesn't prove it, obviously. This stuff can't be proven (which doesn't mean we shouldn't use the best possible metrics. The fact that everyone including you thinks Soton will get more points pretty much does though.
01-21-2018 , 07:07 PM
#17248
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IAMTHISNOW
Still seems fairly small beer for having a license to print money. Also fixed odds betting machines.
well clearly you've never been the CEO of a multinational bookmaking conglomerate
01-21-2018 , 07:08 PM
#17249
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Quote:
Originally Posted by royalblue
It doesn't prove it, obviously. This stuff can't be proven (which doesn't mean we shouldn't use the best possible metrics. The fact that everyone including you thinks Soton will get more points pretty much does though.
When did I say I thought they would?
01-21-2018 , 07:12 PM
#17250
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For ****s and giggles, here's the league table based on Pinnacle's closing lines. As everyone most would expect, Soton worst running, Burnley hottest running. Not including current round.

EPTS=expected points
PTS=real life points
Over=how many points over expected

TeamEPTSPTSOver
Man City53.7628.3
Man Utd47.6502.4
Chelsea47.447-0.4
Tottenham47.144-3.1
Liverpool45.4471.6
Arsenal42.239-3.2
Southampton32.421-11.4
Newcastle27.823-4.8
Leicester27.1313.9
Crystal P26.125-1.1
West Ham26.025-1.0
Everton26.0271.1
Watford25.9260.1
West Brom25.319-6.3
Bournemouth24.124-0.1
Stoke23.520-3.5
Brighton23.0230.0
Burnley22.13411.9
Huddersfield21.1242.9
Swansea20.817-3.8
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