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Old 08-25-2015, 01:20 PM   #7051
raheem
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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Originally Posted by sixfour View Post
Back in the day it was only two points for a win so there wasn't as much upside in non bus parking away from home
This is exactly the problem. Most commentators talk about draw as if you'd still get only two points from a win.

For two equal teams heading into the match it would actually be +EV to have a fixed game. Like flip a coin who is gonna win and you have 1.5 points of EV. Where as both of them would have less than 1.5 points of EV if it's a real match and sometimes it's gonna end in a draw.

Note that I don't want that to be done though obv. More attacking football is a good solution to kinda avoid some draws. Sort of a prisoner's dilemma if there's attacking, but there's also playing defensively and counter-attacking.

Last edited by raheem; 08-25-2015 at 01:30 PM.
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Old 08-25-2015, 01:28 PM   #7052
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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The same reason it's acceptable to punt on 4th and inches despite every model itw saying it would be better to go for it.
The reason for this surely has more to do with coaches being correctly risk averse in order to keep their job. I guess you could say the same for playing for a draw away from home, but it feels a bit weak.
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Old 08-25-2015, 01:31 PM   #7053
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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More of a general football than EPL question but...

Why is the accepted strategy to "play for a loss at home and a draw away"?

Where did that start, and what's the reason for it?
fyp
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Where is this an accepted strategy?
Pulislandia
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Old 08-25-2015, 01:35 PM   #7054
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by raheem View Post
This is exactly the problem. Most commentators talk about draw as if you'd still get only two points from a win.

For two equal teams heading into the match it would actually be +EV to have a fixed game. Like flip a coin who is gonna win and you have 1.5 points of EV. Where as both of them would have less than 1.5 points of EV if it's a real match and sometimes it's gonna end in a draw.

Note that I don't want that to be done though obv. More attacking football is a good solution to kinda avoid some draws. Sort of a prisoner's dilemma if there's attacking, but there's also playing defensively and counter-attacking.
no that's not the problem
people just don't analyse situations with EV so when a teams most likely outcome is loss/0 pts then they just assume 1 pts = good
the thing that changed is that with "2 pts win" they were even right most of the time(by accident)
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Old 08-25-2015, 01:54 PM   #7055
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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Players/teams always raise their game when playing in front of their home fans. In theory they should be going out and giving it 100% every game but that's just not reality. Also the homefans can have a big influence on the refs, you get far less 50/50 decisions as the away side.

When United play Liverpool you've got loads of TV channels hyping the game like a heavyweight PPV clash from weeks out and it only grows as the game get's closer, the atmosphere in the ground is always amazing for games vs plop and the intensity the game's played at just doesn't happen when it's vs Watford/Newcastle.
It's actually pretty amazing how much psychology drives on field performance.

_ _ _

If managers were optimizing, much fewer matches would end with a draw. Even if the opponents score *every time* you go for it and fail, you only have to win >1/3 to be +EV. (All else equal, yes yes, I know )

Check out Rayo Vallecano'a stats. They've only had a draw 17 times the past 4 seasons in total in La Liga (11%).
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Old 08-25-2015, 02:01 PM   #7056
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Re: English Football 2015-16

about psychology driving performance... has there been any investigative work done on this? I've always just assumed that HFA is due to presure on the ref.
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Old 08-25-2015, 02:12 PM   #7057
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Think its pretty rare that you see teams set up totally to draw, mostly its try to score based on a platform of not conceding, e.g. counter attacking compared to try not to concede based on a platform of attacking whilst at home.

Really its a binary between countering away and seeking more possession at home.
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Old 08-25-2015, 02:13 PM   #7058
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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about psychology driving performance... has there been any investigative work done on this? I've always just assumed that HFA is due to presure on the ref.
Kind of, there was a study done with rugby teams and some lower league soccer teams. One of the main findings was that cortisol levels were higher in players when playing on the road vs the same exact fixture when at home. Cortisol is released due to stress and generally has a bunch of negative affects on the body. This, I imagine, is a large part of why teams perform worse on the road then at home.
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Old 08-25-2015, 02:14 PM   #7059
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Re: English Football 2015-16

interesting, thanks
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Old 08-25-2015, 02:25 PM   #7060
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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Originally Posted by PNHH View Post
It's actually pretty amazing how much psychology drives on field performance.

_ _ _

If managers were optimizing, much fewer matches would end with a draw. Even if the opponents score *every time* you go for it and fail, you only have to win >1/3 to be +EV. (All else equal, yes yes, I know )

Check out Rayo Vallecano'a stats. They've only had a draw 17 times the past 4 seasons in total in La Liga (11%).
BAIDS theorem confirmed flawed since most managers don't grasp this easy concept.

in a highly competitive league like the championship it must be +EV to always play for the win, but instead most team have ≈ 30% draw.
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Old 08-25-2015, 02:30 PM   #7061
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Re: English Football 2015-16

didnt ian holloway try this and end up turning a load of draws into losses

tbh these days i dont see much full on bus parking between two equally matched teams (pulis and jose exceptions), bournemouth's attitude at upton park pretty typical
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Old 08-25-2015, 02:31 PM   #7062
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Loss aversion is a thing?

K
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Old 08-25-2015, 02:49 PM   #7063
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckSauce View Post
Kind of, there was a study done with rugby teams and some lower league soccer teams. One of the main findings was that cortisol levels were higher in players when playing on the road vs the same exact fixture when at home. Cortisol is released due to stress and generally has a bunch of negative affects on the body. This, I imagine, is a large part of why teams perform worse on the road then at home.
There is a lot of research in this area. Environment is also a factor (i.e. even controlling for the crowd, an unfamiliar environment has a negative effect on state anxiety and performance).
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Old 08-25-2015, 03:13 PM   #7064
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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Originally Posted by BAIDS View Post
didnt ian holloway try this and end up turning a load of draws into losses

tbh these days i dont see much full on bus parking between two equally matched teams (pulis and jose exceptions), bournemouth's attitude at upton park pretty typical

well, it doesn't have to be full jose-buses, but if almost all teams end up with 30% draws then they must be doing something wrong somewhere?
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Old 08-25-2015, 03:16 PM   #7065
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Re: English Football 2015-16

maybe

but if you're not a good team then bombing forward seeking a winner might not be +ev. it might not give you many more chances to win while giving the opposition multiple 3-vs-2 chances on the break

idk if thats the case but its at least theoretically possible (and somewhat plausible)
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Old 08-25-2015, 03:34 PM   #7066
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Re: English Football 2015-16

so sunderland have already conceded three times to exeter tonight
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Old 08-25-2015, 03:38 PM   #7067
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Villa losing at home to Notts County as well.
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Old 08-25-2015, 03:42 PM   #7068
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Villa 40m spent and look even worse than last season.
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Old 08-25-2015, 04:00 PM   #7069
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Re: English Football 2015-16

grealish is going to be sold for a lot of money
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Old 08-25-2015, 04:07 PM   #7070
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Any of the Capital One Cup matches available on TV in USA? Particularly Everton?
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Old 08-25-2015, 04:43 PM   #7071
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Re: English Football 2015-16

Note to our players: when two goals down with two minutes to go in a meaningless cup competition, having a "who can get sent off for the stupidest reason" competition should be avoided
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Old 08-25-2015, 05:10 PM   #7072
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Re: English Football 2015-16

22/22 ran really good with flips on Kimble (never heard of him) and Gunnar Halle. Born in 1984 though so that was basically my childhood.

Thanks Hoopie.
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Old 08-25-2015, 05:26 PM   #7073
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Re: English Football 2015-16

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Any of the Capital One Cup matches available on TV in USA? Particularly Everton?
beIN is your answer
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Old 08-25-2015, 05:32 PM   #7074
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Re: English Football 2015-16

meanwhile, our early candidate for miss of the season:



thankfully our board only let adkins bring the guy in on loan
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Old 08-25-2015, 05:45 PM   #7075
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Re: English Football 2015-16

"shoot with your left dumbass"
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