Quote:
Originally Posted by LostOstrich
I for one would enjoy seeing the math behind this. I've had a busy day and I could use a good laugh!
Okay. I'm not sure of this theory anymore when I think of it. Maybe I'm doing something wrong, but here it goes:
Okay so let's say you get 1:1 odds and use the bet for that. Let's say you bet 25 dollars free bet. Let's say your team wins 50% of the time to make it simple, so 100% return. If we do like 94% return on both multipliers, I think the math would be the same.
So 50% of the time you win 25 dollars = 12.5 dollars on average of EV
50% of the time you lose nothing cos it was a free bet = 0 dollars on average of EV
So you win 12.5 dollars on average every time you bet.
Then let's say you're getting 16:1 odds. 25 dollars free bet. So your team wins 1 out of 17 times, whatever percentage that is.
So 1 out of 17 times you win 400 dollars = 23.5294118 dollars on average of EV
16 out of 17 times you lose nothing cos free bet = 0 dollars of EV
So you win 23.5 dollars on average when you bet.
idk there's a chance I'm wrong, but there's my math.