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08-17-2015, 01:43 PM   #5501
DuckSauce
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Re: English Football 2015/16

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Liverpool Has this been confirmed? Some random bloke on Twitter is saying that Lallana keeps his place in the side.
It's realistic enough as that was the lu that finished the game vs stoke, and coincided with pool looking the best.

08-17-2015, 01:51 PM   #5502
raheem
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Re: English Football 2015/16

Quote:
 Originally Posted by LostOstrich I for one would enjoy seeing the math behind this. I've had a busy day and I could use a good laugh!
Okay. I'm not sure of this theory anymore when I think of it. Maybe I'm doing something wrong, but here it goes:

Okay so let's say you get 1:1 odds and use the bet for that. Let's say you bet 25 dollars free bet. Let's say your team wins 50% of the time to make it simple, so 100% return. If we do like 94% return on both multipliers, I think the math would be the same.

So 50% of the time you win 25 dollars = 12.5 dollars on average of EV

50% of the time you lose nothing cos it was a free bet = 0 dollars on average of EV

So you win 12.5 dollars on average every time you bet.

Then let's say you're getting 16:1 odds. 25 dollars free bet. So your team wins 1 out of 17 times, whatever percentage that is.

So 1 out of 17 times you win 400 dollars = 23.5294118 dollars on average of EV

16 out of 17 times you lose nothing cos free bet = 0 dollars of EV

So you win 23.5 dollars on average when you bet.

idk there's a chance I'm wrong, but there's my math.

08-17-2015, 01:51 PM   #5503
Liverpool
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Re: English Football 2015/16

Quote:
 Originally Posted by DuckSauce It's realistic enough as that was the lu that finished the game vs stoke, and coincided with pool looking the best.
I hope that's the starting lineup personally.

 08-17-2015, 01:52 PM #5504 DuckSauce Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: scottsdale Posts: 9,268 Re: English Football 2015/16 Ya it's prob their best lu.
08-17-2015, 01:55 PM   #5505
MirZolzayn
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Join Date: May 2011
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Re: English Football 2015/16

Quote:
 Originally Posted by DuckSauce Ya it's prob their best lu.
With Lovren in? that's offensive

 08-17-2015, 01:59 PM #5506 Consty resident wizard     Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 10,134 Re: English Football 2015/16 Source is wrong. Ibe and Lallana start.
 08-17-2015, 02:00 PM #5507 Bjørn Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: @rankingplayers Posts: 12,630 Re: English Football 2015/16 I had not seen Joe Gomez before but wasn't he very right-footed playing the left-back? Rodgers and his ideas at it again I guess. Spoiler:
 08-17-2015, 02:00 PM #5508 MirZolzayn old hand     Join Date: May 2011 Location: Tel Aviv Posts: 1,998 Re: English Football 2015/16 Confirmed #LFC team v @afcbournemouth: Mignolet, Clyne, Lovren, Skrtel, Gomez, Henderson, Milner, Coutinho, Lallana, Ibe, Benteke Confirmed #LFC subs v @afcbournemouth: Bogdan, Toure, Firmino, Moreno, Can, Origi, Ings Last edited by MirZolzayn; 08-17-2015 at 02:01 PM. Reason: identical to last week
 08-17-2015, 02:01 PM #5509 MirZolzayn old hand     Join Date: May 2011 Location: Tel Aviv Posts: 1,998 Re: English Football 2015/16 Cherries XI to face #LFC: Boruc, Francis, Elphick, Cook, Daniels, Ritchie, O'Kane, Surman, Gradel, King, Wilson. #afcb #LIVBOU Substitutes to face #LFC: Federici, Smith, Distin, Mings, Gosling, Pugh, Tomlin. #afcb #LIVBOU Last edited by MirZolzayn; 08-17-2015 at 02:02 PM. Reason: Distin should start imo
 08-17-2015, 02:01 PM #5510 Liverpool Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 7,078 Re: English Football 2015/16 No Sahko in the side again. Disappointed that there weren't some changes.
08-17-2015, 02:05 PM   #5511
MindFckr
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Join Date: Aug 2010
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Re: English Football 2015/16

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MindFckr Ibe
IBEEEEE

 08-17-2015, 02:07 PM #5512 MirZolzayn old hand     Join Date: May 2011 Location: Tel Aviv Posts: 1,998 Re: English Football 2015/16 I'd rather see firmino is action 10x
 08-17-2015, 02:13 PM #5513 MirZolzayn old hand     Join Date: May 2011 Location: Tel Aviv Posts: 1,998 Re: English Football 2015/16 Is sakho injured?
08-17-2015, 02:14 PM   #5514
Liverpool
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Re: English Football 2015/16

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MirZolzayn Is sakho injured?
No. Rodgers doesn't rate him yet starts Lovren every game. Makes no sense.

 08-17-2015, 02:16 PM #5515 MindFckr Classic Arsenal GHW     Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 22,050 Re: English Football 2015/16 Tweeted Ibe to let him know he is my fantasy team...hope he can handle the pressure
08-17-2015, 02:16 PM   #5516
MirZolzayn
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Re: English Football 2015/16

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Liverpool No. Rodgers doesn't rate him yet starts Lovren every game. Makes no sense.
But toure is in the squad and sakho is not

Last edited by MirZolzayn; 08-17-2015 at 02:18 PM. Reason: if we're selling him Imma cry so hard

08-17-2015, 02:17 PM   #5517
DuckSauce
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Re: English Football 2015/16

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MindFckr Tweeted Ibe to let him know he is my fantasy team...hope he can handle the pressure
Expect to see I've and lallana subbed like last game prob if they sputter offensively.

08-17-2015, 02:22 PM   #5518
Cinarocket
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Re: English Football 2015/16

Quote:
 Originally Posted by raheem Okay. I'm not sure of this theory anymore when I think of it. Maybe I'm doing something wrong, but here it goes: Okay so let's say you get 1:1 odds and use the bet for that. Let's say you bet 25 dollars free bet. Let's say your team wins 50% of the time to make it simple, so 100% return. If we do like 94% return on both multipliers, I think the math would be the same. So 50% of the time you win 25 dollars = 12.5 dollars on average of EV 50% of the time you lose nothing cos it was a free bet = 0 dollars on average of EV So you win 12.5 dollars on average every time you bet. Then let's say you're getting 16:1 odds. 25 dollars free bet. So your team wins 1 out of 17 times, whatever percentage that is. So 1 out of 17 times you win 400 dollars = 23.5294118 dollars on average of EV 16 out of 17 times you lose nothing cos free bet = 0 dollars of EV So you win 23.5 dollars on average when you bet. idk there's a chance I'm wrong, but there's my math.
this reasoning would be right if you didn't get your original stake back but i'm afraid that if you bet 25\$ at evens, you get 50\$back not 25\$ so 50\$ half the time and 0 the other half = 25\$ of EV

 08-17-2015, 02:24 PM #5519 Consty resident wizard     Join Date: Nov 2006 Posts: 10,134 Re: English Football 2015/16 Talking of free bets Pokerstars are doing bet £10 pre match on this Pool game (min odds 1.5) and get a free in play bet of £10.
08-17-2015, 02:30 PM   #5520
Tall Paul
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Re: English Football 2015/16

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Cinarocket this reasoning would be right if you didn't get your original stake back but i'm afraid that if you bet 25\$ at evens, you get 50\$back not 25\$ so 50\$ half the time and 0 the other half = 25\$ of EV
You don't get your stake back on free bets.

08-17-2015, 02:32 PM   #5521
Liverpool
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Re: English Football 2015/16

Quote:
 Originally Posted by DuckSauce Expect to see I've and lallana subbed like last game prob if they sputter offensively.
It makes no sense for Lallana and Coutinho to play at the same time. They do the exact same things in the same areas and get in each other's way.

08-17-2015, 02:32 PM   #5522
Cinarocket
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Re: English Football 2015/16

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Tall Paul You don't get your stake back on free bets.
then raheem is right. lower odds bet depend more on the value of getting original stake back. if you don't get it back higher odds bet have more value

08-17-2015, 02:40 PM   #5523
MirZolzayn
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Location: Tel Aviv
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Re: English Football 2015/16

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Liverpool It makes no sense for Lallana and Coutinho to play at the same time. They do the exact same things in the same areas and get in each other's way.
holy **** you're wrong

 08-17-2015, 02:43 PM #5524 t3hbandit Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: May 2012 Location: What a feeling what a night! Posts: 6,202 Re: English Football 2015/16 Lallana shouldn't play because he sucks balls.
08-17-2015, 02:43 PM   #5525
LFC_USA
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Re: English Football 2015/16

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Liverpool It makes no sense for Lallana and Coutinho to play at the same time. They do the exact same things in the same areas and get in each other's way.
Yep, shocking Lallana gets another start.

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